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Giants vs. Braves MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Another Low-Scoring Affair in Atlanta? (Thursday, June 23)

Giants vs. Braves MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Another Low-Scoring Affair in Atlanta? (Thursday, June 23) article feature image
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Todd Kirkland/Getty Images. Pictured: Kyle Wright

  • Two of the first three games in this series went under the total.
  • Will that happen again as the Braves host the Giants in a Thursday matinee?
  • Tony Sartori dives into the data and shares his best bet below.

Giants vs. Braves Odds

Giants Odds +140
Braves Odds -165
Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110)
Time 12:20 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the fourth and final game of this series as the NL East‘s Atlanta Braves host the NL West‘s San Francisco Giants. Two of the first three games of this series went under this total.

Will we see another low-scoring affair between these two teams, or can the bats pick it up this time around?

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San Francisco Giants: Runs Likely at a Premium

The San Francisco Giants enter this contest with many low-scoring games under their belt recently as there have been nine or fewer runs scored in 15 of their past 17 contests (88%). I expect this trend to continue as left-hander Alex Wood is slated to take the mound for the Giants.

Through 13 starts this season, Wood is 5-5 with a 4.32 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. While those surface-level stats are not very good, Wood’s metrics suggest some positive regression should be around the corner.

This season, Wood boasts a .321 xwOBA, .270 xBA and a .429 xSLG. There have been nine or fewer runs scored in four of Wood’s past five starts (80%).

In his one appearance against the Braves last season, Wood threw three perfect innings and recorded four strikeouts. However, Wood may not get much run support as the Giants are slated to go against right-hander Kyle Wright.

Since May 1st, the Giants rank just 22nd in the league in BA and 18th in SLG when facing right-handed pitchers.

Atlanta Braves: Wright Looks to Keep Rolling

Just like San Francisco, the Atlanta Braves have seen many low-scoring games of late. There have been nine or fewer runs scored in 11 of Atlanta’s past 18 games (61%).

As I mentioned above, right-hander Kyle Wright is slated to take the mound for the Braves. Through 13 starts this season, Wright is 7-4 with a 2.94 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.

Wright’s metrics are just as strong as he boasts a .297 xwOBA, .235 xBA and a .369 xSLG. There have now been nine or fewer runs scored in 11 of Wright’s 13 starts this season (85%).

Following Wright is one of the league’s best bullpens. Since May 1st, the Braves’ relief pitching ranks third in the league in ERA, seventh in BA, fourth in SLG and fifth in wOBA.

However, this pitching staff may not get much run support as the Braves are slated to go against left-hander Alex Wood. Through 79 career plate appearances against Wood, the current Braves roster possesses a mere .184 xBA, .303 xSLG and a .228 xwOBA.

Giants-Braves Pick

Backing all of the strong trends in this matchup, I am riding with the under to hit for the third time in four games between these two teams. I am more than comfortable with backing the Braves pitching staff as Wright has been dominant this year and the relief pitching has been on a tear recently.

Add to the fact that San Francisco has struggled recently against right-handed pitchers and it’s clear we shouldn’t see too many runs scored from the visiting club. However, trouble may arise with Atlanta’s offense as they square off against a left-hander.

I believe we are getting good value in the under here because Atlanta has crushed left-handers recently. That being said, Wood has had good success against this Atlanta lineup.

If he can get deep enough into the game, then hopefully San Francisco’s struggling bullpen will not have the opportunity to surrender too many runs.

Pick: Giants/Braves u9.5 (-110) | Play up to (-125)

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