Giants vs. Dodgers MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Carlos Rodon Lead San Francisco To Road Win ? (Thursday, July 21)
Joe Sargent/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodon
- The Dodgers are home favorites as they kick off the second half of the season with a meeting against the rival Giants.
- Los Angeles sends Mitch White to the mound and San Francisco will counter with ace Carlos Rodon.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Giants vs. Dodgers Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The All-Star break couldn’t have come at a worse time for the Giants or Dodgers, two teams that were finding their groove prior to the league’s annual stoppage of play.
While it may be hard to gauge how well these offenses get out of the gate for the second half, might we be able to get a read on this game through the lens of the pitching matchup?
Let’s dig into this one below.
Giants Have Ace On The Mound
Let’s start with the stronger of the two pitchers, and a guy who’s just outside the top-five choices of oddsmakers to win the NL Cy Young Award.
Carlos Rodon has hardly put a foot wrong this season. He wrapped up his first half by allowing just one earned run over five frames against the Brewers with seven strikeouts, lowering his ERA to 2.66 in the process. For the season, he’s now rocking a 30.8% strikeout rate and a very low .214 expected batting average according to Statcast.
Rodon has also shown up in the big spots for San Francisco, namely against the Dodgers. In two starts versus the NL West leaders this year, he has allowed just two earned runs over 12 innings with 11 strikeouts. He seems to have the answers for arguably the best lineup in baseball.
It was a complicated finish to the first half for the Giants, who got very hot and cold, but when it was all said and done they wrapped with the 10th-best wRC+ in the league. To no one’s surprise, they check in at 10th in expected wOBA, though it’s actually three points lower than their real-life wOBA, one of the bigger gaps in the league.
Dodgers Need More From White
On the other side of this one we have 27-year-old Mitch White, who had a first half to forget. After posting a 3.66 ERA with a spicy 24.9% strikeout rate in 46 2/3 innings last season, White followed that up with a 4.20 ERA and a lower 21.8% strikeout rate in 45 innings to begin his campaign this year.
The right-hander has combined his lower strikeout rate with a walk rate that’s even higher — albeit marginally — than his worse-than-average 8.6% mark last year. He’s also been shelled to the tune of a .248 expected batting average, .368 xwOBA on contact and an 8.3% barrel rate.
The bottom line here is that White’s been pretty much the same guy as he was last year in terms of the hit probabilities against him, but a slightly worse version. He’s not striking out as many hitters, which has shined a spotlight on those poor peripherals, and he’s also seen his ground ball rate sink from 48.1% to 41.7% this season. He’s just not very effective.
There’s not too much more ink that should be spilled on the quality of the Dodgers’ offense, but I will note here that it finished the first half 11th in wRC+ against left-handers and 12th with a .249 batting average. While L.A. has been elite all season, it’s been a notch below against lefties — something that’s not new.
The Dodgers’ struggles against lefties have persisted this year, and they’ve had an especially hard time hitting Rodon in 2022 as well. While that’s something that can be said for a lot of teams, it’s all the more encouraging that the Cy Young candidate has been able to go up against one of the best lineups in baseball and shut it down — twice.
I have my doubts here about White. I mean, I have them all the time, but a team that ranks 14th in strikeout rate isn’t exactly a good matchup for the right-hander, nor is a team with the seventh-lowest ground ball rate.
It has to be the Giants here, it simply has to. The matchup is skewed so far in their favor.
Pick: Giants ML (+120)