Guardians vs. Angels Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Angels, Ohtani Against Guardians (April 27)

Guardians vs. Angels Odds

The Los Angeles Angels have won two in a row now against Cleveland and can lock up a series win with a victory on Wednesday night.

With Shohei Ohtani going for L.A. against a slumping offense, is it really as easy as taking the Halos here? Let's get into it.

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Guardians' Offense Has Gone Missing

Offense? Offense? Where are you? Cleveland has crossed the plate just eight times in the last five games, a stark contrast to what we saw the first week of the season.

Then, it was the likes of Steven Kwan and Amed Rosario driving one of the league's most surprising offenses. Now, the Guardians can't buy a run.

The Guardians own a minuscule .217 on-base percentage over the last six days, when they began a five-game losing streak. They've hit just .167 over that span with three round-trippers. They're walking at a 6% clip and striking out 30.1% of the time. They have registered a 28.9% hard-hit rate which is second-lowest in the bigs in that window.

I don't really need to talk any more about how bad this offense has been, because it's depressing. You get the picture.

To make matters worse, Zach Plesac will get the ball on Wednesday. While he has been a positive for Cleveland, allowing just three earned runs in 17 2/3 innings across three starts, he's been incredibly lucky to do so. He's allowed seven hits in each of his last two outings and has struck out just 10 in those 17 2/3 innings.

With a 54.4% hard-hit rate against him, it's no surprise his expected ERA is all the way up at 6.35.

Ohtani, Angels Humming Along

This playoff thing could really happen for the Angels. They've yet to fall into any sort of rut, only dropping consecutive games twice and never losing more than two in a row.

They've now won three in a row after taking the opening two games of this series against Cleveland, and in the first two games of this series they've scored seven times and allowed just one run.

The Angels have been superb this season at the plate, posting a 125 wRC+ through 18 games and slashing .248/.330/.426. They've done all this with just a 75.9% contact rate and a 38.5% hard-hit rate, both of which rank 15th or worse in the big leagues. That would seem to indicate some regression is heading their way in the near future.

Then, there's Shohei Ohtani. The fireballer has been so-so in 2022 with a 4.39 ERA in three starts, but the indicators would suggest he'll be just fine in the long run. Ohtani has posted a 2.38 xERA and for a change he's actually below league average in hard-hit rate.

This is particularly exciting because the righty has always relied on gaudy strikeout numbers to mask the issues created by his issues with quality contact.

Not only is he inducing soft contact, he's also struck out a ridiculous 44.1% of the hitters he's faced which would far and away be his best season in that department (and one of the best numbers in the league).

Guardians-Angels Pick

The Angels may be in for a bit of regression at the plate, but it's really difficult to find any reason why the Guardians will win this game. Plesac has been a ticking time bomb and this lineup has been brutal. On top of that, we may be seeing the best version of Ohtani on the mound yet, which could shatter even the lofty expectations we've set for him.

I don't think this game will be particularly close, but I'll side with the first five spread just to be safe and avoid any shenanigans from the L.A. bullpen. As long as Ohtani is on the hill against Plesac, Cleveland won't have a prayer.

Pick: Angels First Five -0.5 (-138)

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