Guardians vs. Tigers Betting Odds, Picks: Expect Plenty of Offense Thursday

Guardians vs. Tigers Betting Odds, Picks: Expect Plenty of Offense Thursday article feature image

Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Ramirez

  • The Tigers host the Guardians in a clash of AL Central opponents.
  • Neither starting pitcher appears dominant, but our analyst found value in the total.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the game and shares his best bet below.

Guardians vs. Tigers Odds

Guardians Odds-155
Tigers Odds+125
Time1:10 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final game of this AL Central intradivisional series as the Detroit Tigers host the Cleveland Guardians. Two struggling pitchers are slated to take the mound in this contest.

Will poor pitching lead to a high-scoring affair, or can either (both?) of these starters turn their fortunes around?

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Cleveland Guardians: Is Plesac in for Rough Outing?

Right-hander Zach Plesac is slated to take the mound for Cleveland and should be a fade-worthy candidate. Through 20 starts this season, Plesac is 2-10 with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP.

His metrics are just as bad as his surface-level stats as Plesac possesses a .358 xwOBA, .282 xBA and a .481 xSLG. We have seen these poor metrics translate directly to some tough outings for Plesac recently.

Over his past five starts, Plesac is 0-4 with a 7.04 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP. We should not expect much positive regression from Plesac against Detroit.

Across his past four outings against Detroit, Plesac has produced a 1-1 record with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP. However, he should get good run support as Cleveland is slated to go against right-hander Garrett Hill.

Since July 1, the Guardians rank fifth in the league in BA, 13th in OPS and 13th in wOBA.

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Detroit Tigers: Can Hill Slow Down Guardians?

Right-hander Garrett Hill is slated to take the mound for Detroit. Through six starts of his rookie campaign, Hill is 2-3 with a 5.12 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP.

His metrics are even worse than Plesac's as Hill possesses a .383 xwOBA, .289 xBA and a .519 xSLG. Following Hill is one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

Since July 1, the Tigers' relief pitching ranks just 23rd in the league in BA, 22nd in WHIP, 21st in xFIP and 18th in hard-hit percentage. However, this pitching staff should get good run support as Detroit is slated to go against right-hander Zach Plesac.

Through 116 career plate appearances against Plesac, this current Tigers roster boasts a .259 xBA, .425 xSLG and a .318 xwOBA.

Guardians-Tigers Pick

We are rolling with the over in this game. Plesac continues to be a good fade candidate in every game he starts and while the Tigers' offense is not the greatest, it should still be able to get some runs across the plate.

On the other side, we have Hill, who has had a tough start to his career and runs into a Cleveland offense that has been clicking recently.

Even if Hill has a solid outing, Detroit's poor bullpen could get throttled as well.

Pick: Guardians/Tigers o8.5 (-105) | Play up to (-120)

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