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The 2026 World Series features an intriguing matchup between two franchises hungry for their first championship: the powerhouse Milwaukee Brewers and the resilient Tampa Bay Rays.
Milwaukee enters as the favorite following a 103-win campaign and a dominant run through the National League, while Tampa Bay's mix of elite rotational depth and explosive young talent has carried them through a grueling American League bracket.
Let's get into our World Series best bets and expert MLB picks.
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Rays vs Brewers World Series Predictions, Picks
Junior Caminero or Drew Rasmussen World Series MVP
By Matt Trollo
The numbers suggest to me that the market rates on this series are pretty spot on. I expect the Brewers to win this series more often than the Rays. However, if the Rays were to pull off the upset, logic dictates that there are a few ways more likely than others that it may happen.
Freddy Peralta won the ALCS MVP because just one of his three barrels left the park, as opposed to both of Drew Rasmussen’s barrels. Rasmussen posted a 24 K-BB% and 33.3 HardHit% in that series as opposed to Peralta’s 5.9% and 34.3%.
Rasmussen dominated the American League all season long with a 21.2 K-BB% that ranked 6th in the AL and 33.8 HardHit% that ranked 3rd among qualified starters. Having continued to dominate the post-season except for those two home runs, there’s no reason to suggest he can’t be just as efficient in this World Series in games 1 and 4 and even stepping in to contribute in a potential game 7 in some way.
While Rasmussen’s continued domination may be one way for the Rays to pull the upset, a correlated path may be Jacob Misiorowski’s continued postseason inability to dominate like he did this season.
To be fair, lots of pitchers would love to struggle with an 18.6 K-BB%, but as an MLB.com article featured on BaseballSavant.com brilliantly pointed out this week, Misiorowski’s failure to elevate his fastball has led to more foul balls and an inability to create whiffs, while driving up his pitch count, knocking him out of his starts early.
Who is most likely to benefit from fastballs leaking into the strike zone? Junior Caminero was one of the most efficient bats in the league against four-seam fastballs (1.44 wFA/C). His flat swing path and league leading bat speed (79.5 mph) are why he has done so well against elevated heat.
The Guardians did have success feeding Caminero breaking balls and hard four-seamers well elevated out of the strike zone. He will chase and swing through those. This is something regular-season Miz would be able to easily exploit, but something postseason Miz could struggle with.
There are guys who come out of nowhere to play major postseason roles every year (hello recently retired Miguel Rojas), but Rasmussen and/or Caminero stardom and Miz hiccups would seem the most likely path towards a Tampa Bay victory.
Besides, Caminero/Misiorowski encounters may turn out to be the most exciting of the series.
Picks: Junior Caminero World Series MVP (+850), Drew Rasmussen World Series MVP (+2000)
Related Articles
Brewers -1.5
The Milwaukee Brewers have followed up a dominant regular season where they had the best record in baseball at 103-59 with a phenomenal playoff run so far. Not only did they sweep the Los Angeles Dodgers, but they also handled the San Diego Padres in four games.
Now, they’re coming off seven full days of rest, which should make their pitching staff fresher, especially ace Jacob Misiorowski, who has shown signs of fatigue down the stretch.
I’m betting that a well-rested Miz will be the difference in this series. I don’t want to lay -160 on the series price, so we’ll take Brewers -1.5 at +125 odds.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+125)
Aaron Ashby World Series MVP
By Tony Sartori
This is certainly a long shot, but 80/1 is too large of a price to pass up for Aaron Ashby to secure the World Series MVP honors. For starters, the NLCS MVP was a clear two-horse race between him and Jake Bauers, although the latter was awarded.
Bauers had two all-time at-bats in Brewers history during their sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers that ultimately won him the honors, but the series’ most dominant player from start-to-finish was Ashby. He appeared in three of the four games, pitching 6.2 scoreless innings while securing two saves and allowing just two hits.
He also struck out six batters while only walking one. Ashby has been a workhorse out of the bullpen all season, but he has taken it to another level in Milwaukee’s postseason run.
He’s appeared in six of the Brewers’ eight postseason games and has been untouchable:
- IP: 12.1
- W-L: 1-0
- Saves: 2
- ERA: 0.00
- WHIP: 0.57
- K/9: 8.03
With this being the final series and Ashby having the endurance to pitch multiple days in a row, there’s a world where Milwaukee trots him out there in every single game. Even if he just pitches in the games the Brewers win, that could be enough to secure the MVP honors if this string of dominant pitching continues.
Mariano Rivera won the 1999 World Series MVP as a relief pitcher, so there is a precedent for it.
Pick: Aaron Ashby World Series MVP (+8000)
