The Tampa Bay Rays host the Houston Astros on September 11, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on RAYS.
The Rays are favored by -172 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +144 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Astros vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Rays Prediction
- Astros vs Rays Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
My Astros vs Rays best bet is on the over total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Astros vs Rays Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | +144 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 7.5 -120o / -102u | -172 |
- Astros vs Rays moneyline: Astros +144, Rays -172
- Astros vs Rays over/under: 7.5 (-120o / -102u)
- Astros vs Rays spread: Rays -1.5 (+128), Astros +1.5 (-154)
Astros vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Miguel Ullola (RHP, HOU) | Stat | Drew Rasmussen (RHP, TBR) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 14-5 |
| 0.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 4.3 |
| 3.86/3.73 | ERA / xERA | 2.88/3.11 |
| 4.38/2.82 | FIP / xFIP | 2.91/3.23 |
| 33.3% | K-BB% | 21.6% |
| 12.5% | GB% | 42.8% |
| .214 | BABIP | .249 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 110 |
| 108 | Location+ | 107 |
Astros vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
Houston Astros Betting Preview
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
The Astros are throwing out a young pitcher I'm kind of intrigued by: Miguel Ullola. He's starting—probably just as an opener. They haven't really made it clear what their pitching plan is, but I think Ethan Pecko might go behind him today.
In any case, things aren't looking that good for the Astros' pitching plan today against Tampa's deep and patient offense.
I would actually like to see him—Ullola started most of his minor league career and has pitched in five games for the Astros so far in relief.
He's got some really nasty stuff with his fastball and slider. He fits the prototypical "young guys can't hit it when they swing, but he doesn't always know where he's throwing the ball" profile. So I'm interested in seeing him
I'd like to see them let him go a little deep and see how much length he's got today, but I don't know if they're going to do that. And if they don't, you get Ethan Pecko out there, who is a very middling arm—again, against this deep Tampa offense.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
On the flip side of this matchup, of course, Drew Rasmussen is on the mound for Tampa—one of the best pitchers in baseball.
An interesting thing here, though, is that they only have two lefties in their bullpen behind Rasmussen. And you know Tampa is always very cautious with their starting pitchers, particularly Rasmussen.
If he goes deep in the game, it's because he's efficient, not because they let him go deep with his pitch count.
Behind him today, I don't think we'll see Steven Matz; it'll probably be one of the two lefties they rely on out of that bullpen, the other one being Cam Boozer. That'll be notable if Yordan Alvarez comes up in a big spot here.
Astros vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
Two playoff teams right now, and I'm going with the over here in Tampa—over 7.5.
Overall, I like these offenses. Obviously, Rasmussen has huge shutdown potential, but the Astros' offense has been clicking pretty well of late.
With their pitching plan against Tampa's offense, this is the top projected edge in Sean Zerillo's Bartolo tool. Over 7.5 is a 4.7% edge—he puts this total at 8.16. So I like over 7.5 here in St. Petersburg tonight.
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Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
