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Angels vs. Yankees Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Tuesday’s Over/Under (June 29)

Angels vs. Yankees Odds & Pick: Betting Value on Tuesday’s Over/Under (June 29) article feature image

Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Jameson Taillon.

  • The New York Yankees host the Los Angeles Angels for the second game of their four-game set on Tuesday evening.
  • Two former top-10 draft picks, Andrew Heaney and Jameson Taillon, toe the rubber for the teams today.
  • Jeff Hicks explains below why he expect the Yankees and Angels hitters to struggle to find runs.

Angels vs. Yankees Odds

Angels Odds +135
Yankees Odds -159
Over/Under 10
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings.

Two former top-10 picks square off in game two of a four-game set when the Los Angeles Angels face the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. Both pitchers have shown signs 2021 of why they were drafted so highly.

Andrew Heaney and Jameson Taillon will look to keep their opponent in check. The Angels are under .500 against right-handed starting pitchers, while the Yankees are below .500 against left-handed starters.

The Yankees headed into Monday’s game against Los Angeles with a 7-3 record against the A.L. West. The Angels are 4-9 versus A.L. East teams.

Angels Struggle with Righties on the Road

Andrew Heaney is an awesome case study of how baseball can be confounding. He has a better road ERA than at home, he pitches better against right-handed hitters, and has his best fastball velocity of his career. His 4.72 ERA is notably higher than his Expected ERA and xFIP due in part to a career-high BABIP, Barrel percentage, and Hard Hit percentage.

Heaney is similar to the Yankees batting lineup — when everything starts to make sense, it falls apart. His success will come in part in limiting one of the better teams at making hard contact against lefties at home, but not much else.

The Angels are averaging 4.08 runs per road game compared to 5.5 runs at home. A 95 wRC+ on the road is good in 2021, but being average on offense has led to a sub-.500 road record. The Angels excel at making solid contact but are near the bottom of baseball in Hard Hit percentage in road games against righthanders. L.A. also has a .304 BABIP, so chalk up luck being on their side.

An injured Mike Trout will always be back of mind for the offensive struggles, but not having Justin Upton and to some extent Dexter Fowler takes the three projected starting outfielders out of the Angels lineup. That compiled with a slumping Anthony Rendon and Jose Iglesias hitting fifth makes consistent offense a rarity.

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Taillon Could Shut Down L.A. 

With the talent the Yankees have, especially from the right side, it is shocking to see Gio Urshela as their best hitter against southpaws. His 178 Weighted Runs Created Plus is 30 points higher than Aaron Judge. That is great and expected from Judge, but DJ LeMahieu (81), Luke Voit (66) and Giancarlo Stanton are below average against pitchers they should be seeing better. All three are career plus-hitters against lefties. The Yankees should tee off against Heaney, but offense has been optional at the worst times.

The Yankees have an all-or-nothing offense against southpaws at home. They have the 10th best Hard Hit, the third highest Soft Hit percentages and strike out 25.6% of the time. Heaney has had his Strikeouts Per 9 drop below eight in two starts. New York can take strikeouts and pitches with the hope of chasing Heaney; he has not thrown seven innings this season and has only recorded outs into the seventh in four of 13 starts.

The Angels have the fifth-worst bullpen ERA, Weighted On Base Average, and have thrown the fifth-most innings.

Jameson Taillon has a similarly rosy outlook based on expected stats but has had his worst season in terms of walk, home run rate and flyballs allowed. He has also failed to throw five innings in six of 14 starts. Thankfully for Taillon and Under bettors, Taillon has a 3.04 ERA at home compared to 11.12 on the road. He has been dominant against right-handed hitters at home, limiting them to a .165/.216/.264 slash line. If he limits Jared Walsh and Shohei Ohtani, Taillon could shut down the Angels offense.

Angels-Yankees Pick

Both teams have too many wrinkles to pick either on the moneyline, and the Yankees at -157 is giving them too much credit. This game has a realistic chance of coming down to the bullpens, more because Heaney and Taillon pitch well than the other way. The best line on the board is the way to go.

Pick: Under 9.5 runs (Bet to -120)

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