The Atlanta Braves (14-18) host the Los Angeles Dodgers (23-10) on Sunday Night Baseball on May 4, 2025. First pitch from Truist Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ESPN.
Dodgers vs Braves odds (via BetMGM) have the Dodgers as -135 moneyline favorites and Braves as +115 underdogs. The game total is 9.5 (+100o / -120u). The Dodgers are +120 to cover the run line (-1.5); the Braves are -154 to cover the spread (+1.5).
Find my Dodgers vs Braves prediction and parlay picks for Sunday Night Baseball below, plus the latest MLB lines, probable pitchers, betting trends, SNB viewing information and more.
Dodgers vs Braves Predictions, SNB Parlay Picks
- First Five Innings (F5) Over 4.5
- Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases
- Dustin May Over 2.5 Earned Runs
- Parlay Odds: (+400; DraftKings)
Dustin May and Bryce Elder look far from convincing right now, and these two red-hot offenses should be well situated to do some damage in the first five innings of this game.
Freddie Freeman has been in incredible form recently, and in his seven career at-bats against Elder, he holds an OPS of .929.
May has been torched over his last two outings, and his pitch metrics suggest there's legitimate cause for concern. He should get a fairly long leash to work in this outing unless things really go south early.
I think we'll see the Braves bounce back offensively today after a slow start to this series.
Dodgers vs Braves Odds, Spread, Over/Under, Best Bet
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | -135 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 9.5 +100o / -120u | +115 |
- Dodgers vs Braves Moneyline: Dodgers -135, Braves +115
- Dodgers vs Braves Total: 9.5 (+100o / -120u)
- Dodgers vs Braves Spread: Dodgers -1.5 (+120), Braves +1.5 (-154)
- Dodgers vs Braves Best Bet: Over 9.5
Dodgers vs Braves Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Dustin May (LAD) | Stat | RHP Bryce Elder (ATL) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-1 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.3 |
| 3.95 / 4.27 | ERA /xERA | 5.33 / 4.54 |
| 3.24 / 3.81 | FIP / xFIP | 5.87 / 4.46 |
| 1.24 | WHIP | 1.41 |
| 8.8% | K-BB% | 5.1% |
| 53.2% | GB% | 53.8% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 93 |
| 98 | Location+ | 106 |
Sunday Night Baseball Preview, Dodgers vs Braves Prediction
Dodgers Betting Preview: May Day
Thanks to their current six-game winning streak, the Dodgers are now back on top of a highly competitive AL West and are -700 to win the division despite strong starts from the Padres and Giants.
The Dodgers offense has been leading the way recently, boasting a wRC+ of 148 and a slugging percentage of .517 over the last two weeks.
They hold a second-best BB/K ratio of 0.55 in that span and have made soft contact just 12.1% of the time.
Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman and Teoscar Hernandez have all slugged over .600, but it's been Andy Pages leading the way with an .805 slugging percentage over the last 14 days.
The Dodgers have been highly effective against right-handed pitching this season, ranking third in baseball with a wRC+ of 128. They've been the fourth-best team in the league in terms of BB/K against righties and hold the second-lowest soft contact rate in MLB against RHPs.
L.A. also owns an xSLG of .481 this season, which is the best mark in baseball.
Los Angeles has already faced off against Elder this season and hit him effectively, managing three earned runs across four innings on April 2. Elder allowed a .296 xBA in that outing and was hit hard 42% of the time.
On April 1, May made his season debut against the Braves — his first start since May 17, 2023 — and allowed just one hit across five innings of work.
He's been relatively effective overall with a 4.27 xERA and 3.81 xFIP but enters this matchup off a pair of ugly outings in which he allowed 10 earned runs across 10 1/3 combined innings of work.
May's pitch metrics from those two ugly starts were concerning, as he held a Stuff+ rating of 95 and a Pitching+ rating of 88. Over his last three outings, he has allowed an xBA of .304 and holds a K-rate of 21.0%.
Braves Betting Preview: Improvement at the Plate
Even without Ronald Acuna Jr. in the lineup, it seemed unlikely that the Braves would be as awful offensively as we saw early on this season. And just like that, they've turned the corner recently in terms of offensive production.
Over the last 14 days, Atlanta ranks 11th with a wRC+ rating of 109 and holds the second-lowest strikeout rate in baseball during that span.
The Braves' proven lineup was projected to be far more effective at the plate than they were early this season, so it's no surprise that the underlying numbers say their process at the plate has been sound. Atlanta ranks ninth in expected slugging rate and 10th in xwOBA this season.
After significantly outperforming his expected statistics in 2022 and 2023, Elder finished the 2024 season with an ugly 6.52 ERA and hasn't been much better this season with an ERA of 5.33 across his first five outings. He holds an xERA of 4.54 and an xFIP of 4.46.
Pitch metrics agree with the underlying statistics, which suggest Elder is pitching at a higher level this season than last, as he holds a Stuff+ rating of 93 and a Pitching+ rating of 99.
Dodgers vs Braves Pick, Over/Under Prediction
This week's edition of Sunday Night Baseball could be a fairly high-scoring matchup, as two starters who haven't been overly effective look to tame two of the hottest offenses in baseball with batter-friendly conditions.
First pitch is calling for 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center field, and Truist Park has been the 10th-best park for run creation this season.
May fared quite well against Atlanta in his season debut, but the Braves have since found their game offensively. Meanwhile, May has dropped off considerably.
Atlanta should have a good opportunity to post a strong offensive output in this matchup as it looks to avoid a sweep on its home field.
The Dodgers have hit Elder well historically, and while his expected metrics suggest he has been unlucky early on, he still projects to be a well below-average starter this season.
I see value in this game going over 9 at -122. Both teams have a great chance of putting together productive days at the plate.
Pick: Over 9 (-122 · Play to -127)
Moneyline
The prices on the sides look fair, so I have no interest in betting either team on the moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
Much like the moneyline, the run lines also look accurate. I'll stay away from the run line here as well.
Over/Under
As outlined, betting this matchup to go over 9.5 runs is my favorite bet of the game.
Dodgers vs Braves Betting Trends
Dodgers Trends
- Dodgers are 6-9 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Dodgers' last 5 games
- The Dodgers have scored 2.22 runs per game (20/9) in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28
Braves Trends
- Braves are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 6 of Braves' 13 last games at home
- Braves hitters have drawn 1 walk in 35 PA's (3%) in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%
Dodgers vs Braves Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Truist Park in Atlanta, Ga. |
| Date: | Sunday, May 4 |
| Time: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | ESPN |
