Mariners vs Twins Odds & Prediction: Fade Red-Hot Minnesota?

The Twins are one of the hottest teams in baseball but saw their 12-game winning streak get snapped in Sunday's loss to the Red Sox.

Minnesota will look to get back on track as it begins a four-game series with the Mariners at Target Field.

The Mariners, meanwhile, sit in first place of the American League West following their sixth consecutive series win this past weekend.

Where does the betting value lie in this one? Let's make a Mariners vs. Twins pick as we look at the MLB odds for Monday, May 6.

Seattle began the season 6-10 but turned things around with a three-game home sweep of Cincinnati in mid-April. Since the rough start, the M's have gone on a 12-5 run over the last 17 games to pull into the top spot of the AL West.

The Mariners continue their road trip after grabbing two out of three games at Houston this past weekend. Seattle dropped the opener on Friday night, which snapped a six-game winning streak in series-opening games.

Luis Castillo struggled to start 2024, losing his first four starts while allowing 15 runs in 21.2 innings. However, the Seattle right-hander has turned things around of late, posting a 0.90 ERA in his past three outings with wins in all three starts.

Castillo has been one of the best pitchers in baseball from a strikeout prop standpoint, hitting the over in six of his seven starts. In fact, Castillo stayed under his K prop in his first start of the season against Boston and has cashed six consecutive overs by striking out at least six batters each time out during this stretch.

Heading into tonight's opener, Castillo is listed at 6.5 strikeouts juiced to the over. He has gone 3-1 to the over on his strikeout props at that number this season.

Last season, the Mariners went 0-2 in Castillo's two starts against the Twins, although he picked up 20 strikeouts in those two games.

The M's are 7-3 in their last 10 road games while compiling a 13-2-3 mark in the first five innings over their past 18 contests.

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The Twins didn't get off to a hot start in 2024, going 7-13 out of the gate.

However, Minnesota took advantage of a favorable schedule to pick up 12 consecutive victories to move into a tie for second place in the American League Central with Kansas City.

During their run, the Twins beat the White Sox seven times and the Angels three times — both last-place teams. The 12-game winning streak came to a halt in Sunday's 9-2 defeat to the Red Sox as -180 favorites.

Minnesota's offense woke up during this scorching stretch, plating five runs or more 10 times in the 12 wins. Before that, it scored at least five runs only three times in the first 20 games.

The Twins step up in class tonight as Simeon Woods Richardson makes his fourth start of the season. Minnesota is 3-0 in the right-hander's three starts, as he has not given up more than two earned runs in any of those outings.

Woods Richardson allowed seven hits and two runs in less than four innings in his last start against the White Sox, but the Twins rallied for a 6-5 road win.

Minnesota began the season at 1-6 in series openers before winning four consecutive Game 1s.

The Twins, coming off their first loss since April 21, are 4-7 at home against teams with winning records. Castillo pitched well against the Twins last season but had nothing to show for it. His starts against Minnesota even included an extra-innings loss.

Let's back the better pitcher at the short price and take the Mariners to knock off the Twins this evening.

Pick: Mariners ML -126 (Play to -130)