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Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Pick & Preview: Take Miami on the Road (May 8)

Marlins vs. Padres Odds, Pick & Preview: Take Miami on the Road (May 8) article feature image
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G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Jazz Chisholm Jr.

  • The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres square off in the final game of their four game series Sunday afternoon.
  • The Marlins hope to leave San Diego with a split.
  • Jules Posner shares his best bet below.

Marlins vs. Padres Odds

Marlins Odds +145
Padres Odds -165
Over/Under 6.5
Time 4:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres square off in the final game of their four game series Sunday afternoon. The Marlins hope to leave San Diego with a split before heading to Arizona for a three-game series against the Diamondbacks.

This has been a tightly contested series so far as the Padres took the first two games by one run each. Then the Marlins took game three by a final of 8-0 after pulling away in the late stages of the game.

Joe Musgrove and Trevor Rogers will square off on the mound Sunday afternoon in the battle of the two second place teams.

The Padres have been somewhat surprising in the early stages of the season as they boast an 18-10 record without star shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr.

Although the Marlins are below .500, they still have ambitions of being contenders this season and are hoping Trevor Rogers can return to his 2021 form.

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Miami: Things Trending up for Marlins

After Saturday’s blowout victory, the Marlins brought their record to an even 7-7 on the road.

Heading into Saturday’s game, the Marlins had a team wRC+ of 92 on the road against right-handers over the past three weeks. They surely improved upon that mark after getting to Dinelson Limet during a four-run 9th inning that was capped off by Jorge Soler’s grand slam.

Trevor Rogers takes the hill for the Marlins as they try to series split on Sunday. Although Rogers’ overall numbers are ugly, he’s been excellent on the road so far this season. He’s posted a 1.69 ERA and a 2.64 FIP over 16 innings in his three road starts.

He’s also flanked by an upper tier bullpen in terms of ERA. However, they are a middle of the pack unit in terms of FIP. Their middle relief has been solid, but they have had issues closing the game. After Pablo Lopez’s strong eight inning performance Saturday night, the Marlins will have a relatively rested pen heading into the finale.

San Diego: Is Regression Coming for Padres?

The Padres’ offense has fared well against lefties at home so far this season, posting a team wRC+ of 105 over the past few weeks. However, that is only the 15th highest mark over that time span, which puts them squarely in the middle of the pack.

Joe Musgrove has pitched very well at home since putting on a Padres uniform. In his Padre career, Musgrove has posted a 2.73 ERA and a 2.93 FIP at Petco Park.

Behind him is one of the worst bullpens in MLB in terms of ERA and FIP.

The Padres are also still without Fernando Tatis Jr., Wil Myers and Luke Voit. While they have performed well in their absence, the Padres seem due for some regression overall.

Marlins-Padres Pick

While the Padres have certainly played well this season, they have overachieved to a degree. After Saturday’s loss, their Pythagorean W-L record slipped to around 16-12.

The Marlins would have a slightly worse mark, but considering this match may come down to the bullpens, the Marlins have the overall edge in this game. Additionally, the Marlins moneyline is a great value considering this game is more of a coin toss than it seems. Chase the payout and take the Marlins ML at plus-money.

Pick: Marlins ML +145

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