Mets vs. Cubs Game 1 MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back New York at Wrigley Field (Saturday, July 16)
Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Pete Alonso.
Mets vs. Cubs Game 1 Odds
|Time||2:20 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After the postponement of Friday’s contest, the New York Mets and the Chicago Cubs are set to play a doubleheader on Saturday.
Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman will be making their scheduled starts in game one and this is going to be an interesting pitching match up.
The Mets are still the top team in the NL East and are 6-4 over their past 10 games. After swiping a road series against the Atlanta Braves, the Mets look to create a little more distance between themselves and the Braves before the All-Star break.
The Cubs come in with a 2-8 record over their past 10 games and they have found themselves trying to keep the surging Cincinnati Reds from shoving them into the cellar.
New York Mets: Can Walker Continue Impressive Run?
Taijuan Walker gets the start for the Mets and he’s been on an impressive run over his past six starts. He’s posted a 1.85 ERA and a 2.00 FIP over that span. However, he has been more vulnerable on the road this season and during that six-game stretch, seven of the eight runs he’s allowed came on the road.
Overall, Walker owns a 3.44 ERA on the road, but a 3.21 FIP and a 3.33 xFIP, meaning he has still been above league average away from Citi Field. If he does run into trouble, he’s backed by one of the better bullpens in the league.
The Mets’ offense offense hasn’t been amassing huge run totals over the past couple of weeks on the road, but they have been creating a lot of scoring opportunities. They have a 116 wRC+ on the road against right-handed pitchers over the past two weeks, which is up from the prior two week span.
Chicago Cubs: Will Stroman Find Success at Home?
Marcus Stroman is going to have his hands full against his former team Saturday afternoon — especially since he has not found the confines of Wrigley Field to be all that friendly to start his tenure with the Cubs.
In 18 1/3 innings at home, Stroman has been hit around for a 9.33 ERA with a 5.83 FIP. However, he also has a 2.64 xFIP at home, so there simply is not enough data to make any conclusions about who Stroman is at Wrigley.
However, there is enough data to conclude that the Cubs are bad. Over the past two weeks the Cubs have a 69 team wRC+ at home against right-handed pitchers, which is 26th in MLB.
Frankly, the Cubs overall offensive numbers at home are decent and their bullpen has been about league average. Their starting pitching has been terrible. They have the fifth highest staff ERA and third highest FIP in MLB. It’s up to Stroman to try to turn things around for the Cubs’ starting staff.
It seems as though the total has been set based upon the match up on paper because 7.5 seems low. However, that could be a trap. Stroman’s xFIP at home and both bullpens make the under seem just as possible as the over.
One thing that stands out in the odds is the Mets’ moneyline is still at -145. Considering they’re playing a team that’s struggling to stay out of last place in their division and is 2-8 in their past 10 games, this might be the best value of the game.
Now, -145 isn’t an insane value, but considering how good the Mets have been this season, it seems like this might be the safest play instead of going for broke on their runline. Play it conservative here and hope the Mets outclass the Cubs and play this to -150 or better.
Pick: Mets ML -145