Mets vs. Nationals Odds, Picks, Predictions: A Parlay to Bet for Tuesday’s Game (May 10)
Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor.
Mets vs. Nationals Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Mets’ NL East lead has quickly ballooned to six games, and they will have a great chance to build on that lead as they head to Washington to take on the lowly Nationals.
Washington will send Patrick Corbin to the mound, and his best days certainly appear far behind him after he started the season with an 0-5 record and a 7.16 ERA.
Can the Mets compound his struggles Tuesday?
Will Mets Chase Corbin?
New York’s batting order figured to be better in 2022, but I’m still not sure many Mets fans would have counted on it to be one of the most productive in the NL 30 games into the season.
As you might expect, the Mets are running well with the second-highest BABIP mark in the league at .308 and the 16th-best xBA of .254.
The team’s plate discipline has altogether looked really solid, and this roster is clearly not offering many easy outs for opposing pitchers.
The Mets have hit to a 117 wRC+ with a .326 wOBA in 1140 PAs through 30 games so far.
New York has hit left-handed pitching less effectively this season, but it also hasn’t faced left-handed starters posting the kind of dreadful results Corbin has.
The Mets did face Corbin on Opening Day, however, producing two runs on five hits and two walks over five innings — and that’s without mentioning the horrendous hitting conditions.
New York will see a lot of sinkers and sliders from Corbin, which should be advantageous for NY, as the Mets have hit to plus numbers against both of those pitches, including a league-leading mark against the sinker.
The Mets appear to have confirmed Carlos Carrasco as the starter for this contest. Carrasco has been solid thus far, owning a 3.30 ERA with a 3.11 xERA.
Nationals Solid Against Right-Handers
Washington has actually hit right-handed pitching effectively to start the 2022 campaign and will not be easy to get out. The Nationals own a +103 wRC+ rating vs. righties and the eighth-best wOBA of .316.
The Nationals have hit to the fifth-best xBA (.263), and that has come without Juan Soto or Nelson Cruz producing at the kind of clips many would expect.
A modest offensive output would be crucial Tuesday if Corbin continues his lowly run of form.
After another poor season in 2021 with a 5.63 xERA, Corbin has consistently been hit hard with a 4.99 xERA throughout 27.2 innings this season. Corbin is in the bottom third of the league in essentially every relevant metric, and it seems that the lack of velocity or any kind of spin rate has simply made it too easy for batters to stay on all of his stuff.
Corbin simply seems like a prime example of a player whose best days are well behind him, and it’s difficult to imagine a notable turnaround with how things have gone over a large sample.
Even if Corbin posts a surprisingly good start, it’s very hard for me to envision New York not managing a reasonable offensive output in this game.
I think this is a game where we will see Washington make my Carrasco work more than expected, and the heart of the Nationals order may find a way to create a jam or two.
A parlay of the Mets team total over 3.5 and the Nationals team total over 1.5 prices out to -138, and I see value backing that in this spot. Both teams should churn out modest offensive outputs at worst.
Pick: Single Game Parlay: Mets Team Total Over 3.5 + Nationals Team Total Over 1.5 (-138)