The Milwaukee Brewers host the Miami Marlins on July 25, 2025. First pitch from American Family Field is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on FDSFL.
The scalding hot Brewers open as -245 favorites in this series opening game against the Marlins.
Find my MLB betting preview and Marlins vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Marlins vs Brewers Prediction, MLB Picks
- Marlins vs Brewers Picks: Brewers -1.5 (-108, DraftKings | Play to -130)
My Marlins vs Brewers best bet is on Milwaukee's Run Line. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Brewers Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -113 | 8 -117o / -103u | +182 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -107 | 8 -117o / -103u | -226 |
Marlins vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| RHP Cal Quantrill (MIA) | Stat | RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-8 | W-L | 12-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.3 |
| 5.24 / 5.10 | ERA / xERA | 2.85 / 3.41 |
| 4.23 / 4.32 | FIP / xFIP | 3.66 / 4.01 |
| 1.37 | WHIP | 1.08 |
| 2.9 | K-BB% | 3.1 |
| 36% | GB% | 37.9% |
| 88 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 101 | Location+ | 102 |
Sean Paul’s Marlins vs Brewers Preview
Why The Brewers Can Win
The Brewers have been brilliant. They have an MLB-leading 61 wins and lead the Cubs by one game in the NL Central.
Freddy Peralta is coming off a dicey start, allowing four runs in six innings against the Dodgers. The Brewers' ace boasts a dazzling 2.85 ERA, but his 3.41 xERA and 3.66 FIP suggest possible regression. Peralta's underlying numbers have looked worse than his ERA all year, and he has managed to keep his ERA below 3.00.
Peralta is a wizard at generating soft contact. He ranks in the 87th percentile among qualified pitchers in hard hit rate allowed and the 78th in average exit velocity allowed. Peralta also pairs the soft contact with 73rd percentile marks in strikeout and whiff rate, which makes him one of MLB's scariest pitchers.
While the Brewers' offense lacks home run power, they find ways to compete and put pressure on defenses. In July, they rank 11th in MLB with a 107 wRC+ and just 25th with 17 homers.
Conversely, their old-school approach is evident in their top-five rankings in both steals and batting average. Five Milwaukee hitters have multiple stolen bases in July, and Brice Turang, one of its fastest players, has just one steal.
I expect the Brewers to run wild in this series, as both Marlins catchers, Agustin Ramirez and Nick Fortes, struggle to throw runners out. Ramirez is the primary catcher, and he's one of the worst defensive backstops there is. He's in the first percentile among qualified players in blocks above average (-15), third percentile in CS above average (-4), and his pop time is in the 10th percentile. While Fortes is a vastly better defender, throwing isn't his strong suit.
Why The Marlins Can Win
Taking the mound for the Marlins is Cal Quantrill, who has had a pretty rough 2025 campaign. He enters this outing with a 5.24 ERA, accompanied by a 5.10 xERA and 4.23 FIP.
He just capped off his best outing of the year last Saturday, holding an anemic Royals offense to six scoreless innings on just two hits. Before that outing, Quantrill's most recent outing with more than five innings came on July 24th of last year. You read that right: he has just one quality start across his past 19 outings.
I suggest looking at Quantrill's Baseball Savant page with caution — it's not a pretty sight. The only two categories in which Quantrill ranks better than the 39th percentile are 77th in walk and 58th in chase rate. Nothing else there is impressive, as he ranks in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity allowed, 11th in xBA allowed, and 17th in barrel rate allowed.
Through 19 games in July, Miami ranks 23rd in MLB with a 93 wRC+. Calling it what it is, the Marlins' lineup is lean on talent outside of Kyle Stowers, who has a 249 wRC+ in July, Ramirez, who has struggled in July, and the speed and contact of Xavier Edwards.
Since Miami lacks power, it looks to put the ball in play quickly, posting a 6.6% walk rate and 18.9% strikeout rate in July. The issue is that the Brewers' defense sits 12th in MLB with a 22 DRS this year. Just trying to put the ball in play versus Peralta could lead to some very weak flyouts.
How To Make Marlins vs Brewers Picks
Unsurprisingly, the Brewers are big favorites. They are incredibly hot and have their ace on the mound, so why wouldn't they be?
These two teams met a few weeks ago, and the Brewers won two of three games, but only one by a multiple-run margin.
So, by taking the Brewers -1.5, are we falling for a trap? I think not.
Peralta didn't pitch in that series, and Milwaukee has won seven straight outings by their ace, and five came by more than one run.
Let's not overthink it. Roll with the Brew Crew.
Pick: Brewers -1.5 (-108, DraftKings | Play to -130)
Moneyline
No play here.
Run Line (Spread)
I'm going with Milwaukee here.
Over/Under
No total play.
Marlins vs Brewers Betting Trends
