The Milwaukee Brewers host the Miami Marlins on July 17, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Brewers are favored by -152 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Marlins are +128 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Marlins vs Brewers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Marlins vs Brewers Prediction
- Marlins vs Brewers Pick: Under 8 (-105; Play to -115)
My Marlins vs Brewers best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Marlins vs Brewers Odds
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 8 -115o / -105u | +128 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 8 -115o / -105u | -152 |
- Marlins vs Brewers moneyline: Marlins +128, Brewers -152
- Marlins vs Brewers over/under: 8 (-115o / -105u)
- Marlins vs Brewers spread: Brewers -1.5 (+142), Marlins +1.5 (-172)
Marlins vs Brewers Probable Pitchers
| RHP Sandy Alcantara (MIA) | Stat | RHP Logan Henderson (MIL) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-5 | W-L | 3-1 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.0 |
| 3.99/3.74 | ERA / xERA | 3.18/3.04 |
| 3.78/4.14 | FIP / xFIP | 2.46/3.28 |
| 12.3% | K-BB% | 24.3% |
| 44.5% | GB% | 24.6% |
| .292 | BABIP | .284 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 106 |
| 104 | Location+ | 102 |
Marlins vs Brewers MLB Betting Preview, Pick
Editor's Note: This written best bet is a transcription from the latest episode of the Payoff Pitch podcast.
I'm expecting the roof to be closed here tonight. If the roof were open, I'd probably be more in line with the market. However, assuming the roof will be closed due to the wildfire smoke coming down from Canada, that should neutralize any potential boost for the offense given the weather in Milwaukee today.
Generally, they play with at least the sides and part of the roof open, as opposed to closing the whole thing up.
I love both starting pitchers, and I love the Brewers' bullpen as well—the Brewers project as a top-five bullpen for me.
I do have slight concerns about Logan Henderson coming off the IL, as he did see a velocity dip and got hit a little bit. His strikeout-to-walk efficiency wasn't quite where you would fully expect it to be.
However, the Brewers are going to be very protective of their starting pitchers; they're not going to throw them out there if they're injured.
You see them shutting Jacob Misiorowski down a little bit right now, and when Brandon Woodruff had an injury, they kept him protected too.
I don't think the Brewers are going to send guys out unless they think they're fully healthy. They know they're likely playing for the postseason at this point, so they want to save their roster and their arms.
Barring a complete second-half collapse, they know they're probably going to be a wild-card team at worst, so you want those arms healthy for October.
Still, Henderson has projected really well for me all year with a sub-three expected FIP (xFIP) and a SIERA of 3.3. He just looks like another breakout guy amongst all the breakout guys on this Brewers staff.
On the other side, Sandy Alcantara pitches better than his strikeout and walk rates suggest. His strikeout rate is slightly above league average at about 13%, but he pitches so much better than that because of all the ground balls and weak contact he induces.
The Marlins have been red-hot and scoring a ton of runs, and the Brewers always seem to score more at home than they do on the road.
But with the roof closed, I like the under 8 down to -115 between the Brewers and the Marlins.
Pick: Under 8 (-105; Play to -115)
