The Texas Rangers host the Milwaukee Brewers on September 10, 2025. First pitch from Globe Life Field is scheduled for 2:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on RSN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Brewers vs Rangers prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Brewers vs Rangers Prediction
- Brewers vs Rangers picks: Under 7.5 (play to 7)
My Brewers vs Rangers best bet is Under 7.5 (play to 7). Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Brewers vs Rangers Odds
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -175 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Brewers vs Rangers Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Freddy Peralta (MIL) | Stat | RHP Merrill Kelly (TEX) |
|---|---|---|
| 16-5 | W-L | 11-7 |
| 3.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 2.50/3.32 | ERA /xERA | 3.16/4.04 |
| 3.56/3.98 | FIP / xFIP | 3.77/3.83 |
| 1.07 | WHIP | 1.04 |
| 2.9 | K-BB% | 3.3 |
| 37.6 | GB% | 42.4 |
| 102 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 102 | Location+ | 105 |
Sean Paul’s Brewers vs Rangers Preview
Texas Rangers Betting Preview: Trust Kelly
The Rangers are one of a few teams with legitimate playoff hopes that currently sit on the outside of the race. They’re less than two games behind the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot in the AL.
Texas went for it at the deadline by adding veteran hurler Merrill Kelly. He’s been an excellent fit in the rotation, particularly with Nathan Eovaldi’s injury. Kelly has logged a quality start in five of seven starts with Texas, while pitching to a 2.98 ERA. However, Kelly’s underlying metrics indicate he’s been a bit lucky, posting a 4.25 xERA and 4.35 FIP in 42 ⅓ innings.
In all, Kelly doesn’t have such extreme splits for the year. So I’ll chalk some of the poor metrics to a much smaller sample. I’ll trust Kelly’s 4.04 xERA and 3.77 FIP being a better indicator of his performance here.
Offensively, the Rangers are — on paper — a shell of the team they were supposed to be. Since Adolis Garcia went down with an injury, the Rangers are without Garcia, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien. And Garcia was finally hitting his stride.
In seven games with each of the three out of the lineup, the Rangers have scored 5+ runs in just one game. The Rangers' only chance to win is with good pitching and what's left of the offense doing just enough to secure a victory.
The Rangers have only two hitters in their regular lineup against right-handers with a batting average better than .245. That is Josh Jung and Josh Smith, who's hitting .255. I don't have a lot of faith in the Rangers doing much damage against the Brewers' ace.
Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview: Strong Starter, Weak Bullpen
That ace is Freddy Peralta, who's in the midst of one of the best pitching runs you'll see. He's surrendered just one earned run in his last 33 innings and is on a 28-inning scoreless streak.
Peralta enters this outing with a 2.50 ERA with a slightly elevated 3.32 xERA and a 3.56 FIP. The only issue Peralta endures is walking hitters. He's walking 3.46 batters per nine and walked 15 hitters during his 33-inning stretch of dominance. But he manages to get out of his self-inflicted jams because he's allowed just 13 hits in that time.
Due to Peralta's strike-throwing issues, he doesn't pitch beyond the sixth inning often. If Peralta can provide a strong six innings in this game, it would go a long way for the total going under.
Behind Peralta is a bit of a questionable bullpen. With injuries to both closer Trevor Megill and high-leverage set-up arm Nick Mears, Peralta needs to limit the pen's exposure. The game would line up perfectly if Peralta hands the ball to Jared Koenig, then Grant Anderson and closer Abner Uribe to seal it. The under would be in a great spot if that were to happen.
The Brewers' offensive production has scaled back a bit, but their floor is a top-10 team in wRC+ with an even higher ceiling. They rank 10th in MLB with a 111 wRC+ in their last 23 games.
The thing that makes the Brewers' production sustainable is their approach — boasting a 9.4% walk rate and 19.9% strikeout rate over that span. They still lack power, but Milwaukee puts the ball in play, draws walks, and steals bases. All of the little things the Brewers do make up for their lack of home-run pop.
Brewers vs Rangers Prediction, Betting Analysis
This pitching matchup features two pitchers who rank in the top 17 in ERA this season. Any chance I get to back two pitchers who typically dominate, I'll do it. So, that's why I'm rolling with the under here. Kelly has been brilliant all year and that hasn't changed in Texas. And Peralta has developed into one of the top arms in baseball.
Betting on the under in games at Globe Life Park has been profitable, as the under is 26-47-1 this season. It's become an extreme pitchers' park, especially in the home-run department. That's another boost in the under's direction.
Pick: Under 7.5 (play to 7)
Brewers vs Rangers Betting Trends
