MLB Picks, Predictions, Odds for Rockies vs. Nationals, Blue Jays vs. Dodgers, More (Monday, July 24)
Mark Blinch/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- The Orioles have been red hot over the past three weeks offensively and are top 10 in wOBA against left-handed pitching.
- Patrick Corbin … as a favorite? Sorry, not in my lifetime.
- Michael Grove has been pitching better for the Los Angeles Dodgers when they sorely needed him to. He will face a potent Toronto Blue Jays team on Monday night with José Berríos toeing the rubber against him.
A new week of baseball is upon us and as we inch closer to the trade deadline, teams are gearing up for the stretch run.
Monday's MLB slate includes 10 games, and after Giants vs. Tigers get us going this afternoon, there are nine more lumped together under the lights tonight.
As expected, our analysts are all over this slate, with three picks on three different games, including Orioles vs. Phillies, Rockies vs. Nationals and Blue Jays vs. Dodgers.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Monday, July 24.
Monday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Orioles vs. Phillies
Dean Kremer has been a disaster for the Orioles this season.
Kremer has been significantly worse than his already bad numbers look on paper. His ERA sits at 4.80, but his xERA is up at 5.63. He’s in the bottom 10 percentile among MLB starting pitchers in xwOBA, xSLG and xBA. The Dodgers did a fantastic job not chasing anything in Kremer's last start, so if you have a good plate approach and don't chase anything against him, he really isn't effective at all.
Kremer is a very straightforward pitcher, with his three main pitches being a fastball, sinker and cutter. All three of those pitches are allowing an xwOBA over .350. He's failed to keep the ball off the sweet spot, allowing an insanely high 11% barrel rate.
Cristopher Sanchez has been solid through his first seven starts posting a 3.06 ERA, but he has overperformed with his xERA at 3.96. Sanchez is successful when he's inducing a lot of ground balls. He only has three pitches — a sinker, changeup and slider — so everything is designed to be down in the zone, and he does have a pretty high 54.5% ground ball rate.
However, when you dig deeper into Sanchez's Statcast metrics, things look a lot shakier than a 3.06 ERA. You couple that with the fact that his Stuff+ is just 82 and you have a pitcher that is due for negative regression. The Orioles have been red hot over the past three weeks offensively and are top 10 in wOBA against left-handed pitching.
I have 6.1 runs projected for the first five innings, so I like the value on Over 5 runs at -120.
Pick: First 5 Innings Over 5 (-120)
Rockies vs. Nationals
Patrick Corbin … as a favorite?
Sorry, not in my lifetime.
Sure, he’s been moderately better recently, but nothing to write home about. He’s put up a 5.22 ERA over his past five outings, and his expected ERA remains in the mid-6.00s.
I assume this line is due to Washington’s semi-hot lineup and Colorado’s useless one. However, the Rockies have posted a not-entirely-putrid 84 wRC+ against southpaws over the past month, so they have that going for them.
Or, perhaps this line is because the Rockies are rolling with a bullpen game. But don’t look now, as the Rox have posted the eighth-best bullpen xFIP over the past two weeks (3.80), posting a 1.80 ERA during that stretch (40 IP).
I imagine this game ultimately devolves into a high-variance affair, so might as well take the plus-money odds while relying on one of baseball’s best gambling systems.
Pick: Rockies ML (+135)
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers
By D.J. James
Michael Grove has been pitching better for the Los Angeles Dodgers when they sorely needed him to. He will face a potent Toronto Blue Jays team on Monday night with José Berríos toeing the rubber against him.
In July, Berríos holds a 1.47 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP over 18 1/3 innings. On the season, his strikeout rate and walk rate are above average. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate rank well, too. That said, his ERA is 3.39 against a 4.59 xERA. This is mostly due to a high Barrel Rate. Still, as long as he is producing weaker-than-average contact, he is in the driver’s seat.
Grove owns a 6.40 ERA against a 5.17 xERA. Although positive regression is expected, these are both awful numbers. He does have a 3.60 ERA over 15 July innings, but his WHIP is 1.40. His Average Exit Velocity and Hard Hit Rate rank in the bottom half of the league with a below-average strikeout rate.
Off of righties this month, Los Angeles has hit better, but Berríos is the better starter in this one. Los Angeles carries a 143 wRC+ into this game against Toronto’s 108.
Both have some sore spots in the bullpen, but these two have comparable xFIPS in relief this month.
Given that Grove seems to be getting a little too much credit on the moneyline here, Toronto is worth a bet. Berríos can continue inducing weak contact and even the lineups out a bit.
Take Toronto to -120.