There are 15 Major League Baseball games scheduled for Sunday, July 20, and our baseball experts have come through with four MLB best bets.
You can find MLB picks and player prop predictions for the following games on Sunday: Royals vs Marlins, Reds vs Mets, Astros vs Mariners and Tigers vs Rangers.
Editor's Note: A parlay is not the formal recommendation of the authors. These MLB picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Best Bets, Picks, Props, Predictions 7/20
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:40 p.m. | |
  | 1:40 p.m. | |
  | 4:10 p.m. | |
  | 7:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs Marlins F5 Pick
This magical run for Janson Junk will end at some point, but today isn't the day.
Junk fired seven scoreless innings last time out against the Orioles to push his ERA under 1.00 in July. He came into the month never having tossed a quality start in his career — he's now done so in three straight games.
Junk has a minuscule 2% BB% and a ridiculous 117 Location+. The Royals rank 27th or worse in OPS, wOBA and wRC+ against righties over the past 30 days of game action.
Kris Bubic has an even better matchup.
The Marlins are dead last in OPS vs. LHP since the start of May. Bubic no longer has the sub-1.50 ERA he carried into June, but he's still been plenty effective.
Bubic has held opponents to three earned runs or fewer in all but one start since the beginning of April.
Pick: First Five Innings Total Under 4 (-115)
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Reds vs Mets F5 Prediction
By Charlie Wright
I'm running this angle back after getting hooked on Friday.
Sean Manaea was pulled after only four innings and the Mets bullpen immediately blew it, but the lefties had silenced these offenses up to that point. We have a pair of solid southpaws once again today.
The Mets and Reds have both struggled against LHP.
The Mets are 23rd in wRC+ and 25th in OPS and wOBA vs. LHP since the start of May. The Reds are 24th, 22nd and 23rd in those metrics, respectively. Cincinnati also leaves hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park for Citi Field.
We have two All-Star arms facing off here.
Andrew Abbott has used his unique crossfire delivery to post an ERA just above 2.00. He’s giving up tons of fly balls while limiting hard contact, which is a recipe for run prevention.
David Peterson is piling up ground balls and easy innings. He closed June with his two worst starts of the season, but bounced back in July (two earned runs over 13 2/3 innings).
Pick: First Five Innings Total Under 4.5 (-135)
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Astros vs Mariners Pitching Prop: Hunter Brown Outs
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 17.19 pitching outs for Astros starter Hunter Brown compared to 20.93 pitching outs implied by the oddsmakers, so I believe there is value here.
If you take the under, you’d be projected to win 76% of the time, resulting in a 41% ROI.
Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $47.66.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Hunter Brown Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (-115)
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Tigers vs Rangers Strikeout Prop
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Rangers starter Jacob Latz's strikeouts prop.
THE BAT X is projecting him to record 4.23 strikeouts, while oddsmakers are implying 4.97.
The model believes there is a 59% chance he records fewer than 5 strikeouts, so there is value on the under at +125.
(NOTE: The best line is +125 at bet365.)
Pick: Jacob Latz Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125)
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