MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions for Saturday (4/20)
(Photos: Getty Images) Pictured (left to right) Juan Soto, Kutter Crawford and Jackson Holliday.
The MLB slate is loaded on Saturday, April 20, with 16 games scheduled, starting with Rays vs Yankees at Yankee Stadium and concluding with Blue Jays vs Padres at Petco Park. The extra game is thanks to a doubleheader at Wrigley Field, featuring Marlins vs Cubs.
Our baseball betting experts have come through with five MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions for Saturday. We have three moneyline picks, another on the run line and a Kyle Harrison player prop.
Check out our MLB Best Bets below!
MLB Best Bets, Picks & Predictions for Saturday (4/20)
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting on Saturday. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific MLB bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:05 p.m. | ||
| 7:10 p.m. | ||
| 1:05 p.m. | ||
| 4:05 p.m. | ||
| 4:05 p.m. | ||
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Check out the latest bet365 bonus code offer before placing your MLB bets on Saturday!
Rays vs. Yankees
By Kenny Ducey
Saturday will be an exhibition in batted ball metrics between the Yankees and Rays. Both teams should hit plenty of fly balls given the pitching matchup, and one is far better suited for such a contest.
The Yankees are once again up near the top of the league in fly-ball rate, sporting a lofty 11.4% home run-to-fly ball ratio — which is tough news for Zach Eflin. The key to the right-hander’s breakthrough in 2023 was more strikeouts and more fly balls, of which he’s gotten very few this year. With a nine-point dive in the ground ball department and a six-point drop in strikeouts, Eflin now finds himself below the league average in punchouts and well higher than the league average in fly balls allowed per batted ball.
This isn’t exactly a friendly environment for fly balls at Yankee Stadium, which ranks very high in park factors for home runs. And while you might think the Rays are plenty capable of matching the Yankees in the home run department given they’ll be up against an extreme fly-ball pitcher in Nestor Cortes Jr., the numbers would say otherwise.
It’s early, but Tampa’s .235/.274/.376 slash line against fly-ball pitchers is actually much worse than its marks against ground-ball pitchers, which would make sense given the ground ball has been the cornerstone of their offense thus far. Cortes is also allowing just a 34.3% hard-hit rate thus far, and as a result, his xBA is under the league average.
So, while Cortes’ numbers may look a bit rough on the surface, there are plenty of reasons to believe in him here against a team that’s ill-suited to hit him where it hurts. On the flip side, the influx of fly balls and decrease in strikeouts should take their toll on Eflin against a team that is hitting for a ton of power.
Pick: Yankees ML (-132 | Bet to -140)
Red Sox vs. Pirates
By D.J. James
Mitch Keller has not had as fantastic of a start as he did in 2023. His strikeout rate is under 20% with an average exit velocity of almost 90 mph and a 4.33 xERA. The biggest concern here is the hard hit numbers, where he ranks in the 16th percentile.
He and the Pittsburgh Pirates will face Kutter Crawford and the Boston Red Sox on Saturday. Crawford has been impeccable. His xBA is .156 and his ERA is an impressive 0.42. While that is likely not sustainable with a below-average walk rate and Whiff Rate, his xERA is still below 2.30 and he is striking out more hitters than he did in 2023.
Both of these lineups have had their question marks. The Red Sox have an 87 wRC+ and 25.5% strikeout rate. The Pirates come in at a 22.9% strikeout rate and 94 wRC+. The Pirates have been a better team at taking walks, but otherwise, both teams are below average hitting-wise.
Tyler O’Neill and Rafael Devers will be the two names to watch for the Red Sox, as they could take Keller deep.
The relief staff for both teams have been great. Both teams have collective bullpen xFIPs under a 3.80 xFIP.
All in all, Keller is not better than Crawford at the moment. The Red Sox have enough in the lineup to get the job done and maybe see the weaker Pirates relievers in long relief. Take the Red Sox from +104 to -125.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+104 | Bet to -125)
Diamondbacks vs. Giants
By Tony Sartori
San Francisco hands the ball to left-hander Kyle Harrison on Saturday, and he should be a good fade candidate. It's been a tough start to Harrison's sophomore campaign, posting a 4.70 ERA and 1.26 WHIP through his first four starts.
His underlying metrics suggest positive regression is unlikely, as he ranks in the 37th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity, Barrel% and Hard-Hit%. Specifically, we are going to fade Harrison in the strikeout department considering he also ranks in the 15th percentile in Whiff% and 37th percentile in K%.
Arizona is not a team you want to bring poor strikeout numbers into a matchup against, considering that it ranks second in the league in K%. The D-Backs' strikeout numbers improve even further when facing left-handed pitching, dropping to a mere 15%.
Looking at Arizona's projected starting lineup for Saturday, six of its nine hitters boast a K% south of 16%.
Pick: Kyle Harrison Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122 | Bet to -115)
White Sox vs. Phillies
By William Boor
The Phillies are both heating up and walking into an extremely favorable matchup against Michael Soroka and the White Sox.
So, let’s bet the Phillies -1.5 (-130).
The Phillies have won four in a row and have scored 19 runs over their past three games, but perhaps what's more important is how they’ve generated that offense – with the stars leading the charge.
Over the past three games, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are a combined 14-for-36 (.389) with four homers and seven RBI.
That’s bad news for Soroka, who is 0-2 with a 6.98 ERA over 19 1/3 innings. He has allowed four or more runs in three of his four starts and walked three or more three times. And if you’re looking for a silver lining, you won’t find it in the advanced metrics.
Soroka has pitched to a 7.23 xERA, his .326 xBA is in the bottom 7% of the league, his strikeout rate (11.2%) is in the bottom 5% of the league and he ranks in just the 17th percentile in walk rate.
Additionally, the White Sox have scored two or fewer runs in four straight games and have five or fewer hits in five of their past seven games. They're in for another tough day against Phillies starter Zack Wheeler, who is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA over four starts, but has pitched to a 2.61 xERA and ranks in the 95th percentile in chase rate.
All signs point toward the Phillies in this matchup, and although I rarely bet the run line, it’s too hard to pass up in this matchup.
Pick: Phillies -1.5 (-130)
Orioles vs. Royals
Corbin Burnes has been nothing short of sensational since coming to Baltimore. His strikeout rate is a little lower than his peak seasons in Milwaukee, but he has only yielded a 2.64 xERA through his first four starts. What makes Burnes so dominant and hard to hit is his cutter, which is one of the best singular pitches in all of baseball.
He averages close to 95 mph on that pitch and generates 52% more horizontal break than the average MLB cutter. Even though he doesn't generate a crazy whiff rate on it, opposing hitters only have a .225 xwOBA on it and it has a Stuff+ rating of 128. Pairing that cutter with a nasty curveball and a wipeout slider makes it incredibly difficult for opposing hitters to generate consistent hard contact against Burnes.
Cole Ragans is without a doubt one of the better young pitchers in baseball, and his metrics to begin the season — featuring a strikeout rate as high as 29.6% and an xERA of 2.97 — are really impressive. With that being said, if you dig a little deeper, you will find that his command is a little shaky. He throws his fastball a little less than 40% of the time and it has a lot of velocity with a ton of movement both horizontally and vertically. Per PitcherList, Ragans' fastball is in the 92nd percentile for horizontal movement and 78th percentile for vertical movement. So, naturally the Stuff+ rating on that pitch that averages over 96 mph is 128, which is fifth best in baseball.
However, he is using his fastball outside of the zone at a pretty high rate and the pitches that are in zone are closer to the sweet spot than painting the edges. The most telling stat of his fastball is that it is allowing a .398 xwOBACON (expected weighted on base average on contact), which is in the 44th percentile for major league fastballs.
There is also a pretty wide discrepancy in the bullpens in the game. The Royals have one pitcher who is above average and it's their closer James McArthur, who at least has a Pitching+ rating of 108. The Royals have a 90 Stuff+ rating as a bullpen, dead last in baseball by a mile.
Meanwhile, the Orioles have started off the season with the best xFIP in baseball and are also grade out as No. 1 in Pitching+.
Because of the massive gap in these two bullpens, I have the Orioles projected at -168, so I love the value on them on the moneyline at -130.
Pick: Orioles ML (-120)
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