MLB Predictions, Odds Saturday | Expert Picks Today (April 20)

Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.

The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.

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Here are my favorite bets for Saturday, April 20.

MLB Predictions, Odds Saturday | Expert Picks Today (April 20)

Diamondbacks vs. Giants

Zac Gallen vs. Kyle Harrison

Zac Gallen has been pitching really well to begin the season, putting up a 10.64 K/9 rate, 2.86 BB/9 rate and a 2.95 xFIP. Gallen has always been a fastball dominant pitcher and his usage rate on it has ticked up a little bit in 2024. His Stuff+ numbers, though, have gone down pretty significantly, as he's only at a 93 through his first four starts and none of his pitches have a Stuff+ ratting over 100. He is, however, doing a great job with the command of his entire arsenal, especially his knuckle curve, which is generating a whiff rate of 50% in 2024 and has only yielded two hits.

The Giants have been well below average offensively to begin the season, only putting up a .310 wOBA and 98 wRC+ with their expected metrics not looking a whole lot better. Gallen is pretty average against left-handed hitters, but at best, the Giants can only get five left-handed bats into their lineup — and for the season, they only have a 96 wRC+ against righties to begin with.

Kyle Harrison has struggled out of the gates, posting a 4.54 xERA with a real home run problem. In seven starts last year, he had a HR/9 rate at 2.0, but he's already given up five home runs in his first four starts. By nature he is a fly-ball pitcher and is completely reliant on his fastball, which he throws 67.4% of the time in 2024. His fastball doesn't have elite velocity, but what he does have is 19.5 inches of induced vertical break, which is why he gets such a high number of fly balls. Pitching in San Francisco is a benefit, but his fastball only has a Stuff+ rating of 93 and his main secondary pitch, a changeup, is only rated at 80.

So, when Harrison faces lineups that have power and can turn those fly balls off his fastballs into home runs, he's going to struggle. Arizona is one of those lineups considering it is top 10 in HR/FB%, and since the start of last season has the sixth-best xwOBA against left-handed fastballs.

The Giants' pitch modeling metrics in the bullpen are vastly superior to the Diamondbacks, so I'd prefer to take Arizona for the first five innings at -132, as I have them projected at -153.

Pick: Diamondbacks First Five Innings ML (-120 via FanDuel)

Orioles vs. Royals

Corbin Burnes vs. Cole Ragans

This is probably the best pitching matchup Saturday, but the Orioles' moneyline is too low in my opinion.

Corbin Burnes has been nothing short of sensational since coming to Baltimore. His strikeout rate is a little lower than his peak seasons in Milwaukee, but he has only yielded a 2.64 xERA through his first four starts. What makes Burnes so dominant and hard to hit is his cutter, which is one of the best singular pitches in all of baseball.

He averages close to 95 mph on that pitch and generates 52% more horizontal break than the average MLB cutter. Even though he doesn't generate a crazy whiff rate on it, opposing hitters only have a .225 xwOBA on it and it has a Stuff+ rating of 128. Pairing that cutter with a nasty curveball and a wipeout slider makes it incredibly difficult for opposing hitters to generate consistent hard contact against Burnes.

Because Burnes has three pitches that are always going into left-handed hitters, he's dominated them throughout his career. This season is no different, as lefties only have a .175 wOBA against him. The Royals can platoon some left-handed bats out of their lineup, but they would be losing some of their best hitters in the process.

Cole Ragans is without a doubt one of the better young pitchers in baseball, and his metrics to begin the season — featuring a strikeout rate as high as 29.6% and an xERA of 2.97 — are really impressive. With that being said, if you dig a little deeper, you will find that his command is a little shaky. He throws his fastball a little less than 40% of the time and it has a lot of velocity with a ton of movement both horizontally and vertically. Per PitcherList, Ragans' fastball is in the 92nd percentile for horizontal movement and 78th percentile for vertical movement. So, naturally the Stuff+ rating on that pitch that averages over 96 mph is 128, which is fifth best in baseball.

However, if you look at Ragans' pitch map below, you'll see that he is using his fastball outside of the zone at a pretty high rate and the pitches that are in the zone are closer to the sweet spot than painting the edges. The most telling stat of his fastball is that it is allowing a .398 xwOBACON (expected weighted on base average on contact), which is in the 44th percentile for major league fastballs.

(Image via PitcherList)

Ragans' other main two secondary pitches of changeup and cutter grade out pretty average by Stuff+ standards, so when you are facing the No. 1 lineup in baseball so far in xwOBA, xBA and xSLG that also has a .372 xwOBA against left-handed fastballs, it's not going to be very easy for Ragans on Saturday.

There is also a pretty wide discrepancy in the bullpens in the game. The Royals have one pitcher who is above average and it's their closer James McArthur, who at least has a Pitching+ rating of 108. The Royals have a 90 Stuff+ rating as a bullpen, dead last in baseball by a mile.

(Image via FanGraphs)

Meanwhile, the Orioles have started off the season with the best xFIP in baseball and are also grade out as No. 1 in Pitching+.

Because of the massive gap in these two bullpens, I have the Orioles projected at -168, so I love the value on them on the moneyline at -130.

Pick: Orioles ML (-120 via FanDuel)

Rangers vs. Braves

Nathan Eovaldi vs. Charlie Morton

Two has-beens going up against two of the best lineups in baseball should produce some fireworks.

Nathan Eovaldi has been eating up innings and pitching pretty well to begin the season. He's almost at 25 innings through his first four starts and has posted a 3.51 xERA. The good news for Eovaldi is the velocity hasn't dropped off at age 34 — in fact it's actually increased across the board on all of his pitches. He's also made a change this year by throwing his split finger more often, which is a good sign because that is by far his best pitch. Opposing hitters only have a .147 xBA against it this this season and it's producing a 41% whiff rate, per Baseball Savant.

Steering away from throwing his fastball at a high rate is a really good thing for Eovaldi, because not only does his splitter have a Stuff+ rating of 125, but his fastball's rating is only 75. He still has decent velocity on it, but it is straight as an arrow and that is the pitch that hitters had a lot of success against last year.

The Braves lineup is really difficult to get out because they do not have a lot of weaknesses, but split fingers might be one of them. Since the start of last season, they've seen 623 splitters and have a -9.8 run value against them.

Charlie Morton was a big time negative regression candidate coming into the season, as last year his expected ERA was a full run higher than his ERA. He’s been having some issues with his control since the beginning of last year, as his BB/9 is above four for the first time since 2016. We also have to remember, he's been pitching since 2008 and is now 40 years old.

The thing about Morton is he is basically only two pitches: a curveball and a fastball. He throws one of those two pitches 76% of the time, and while his curveball was really good last year, it has since decreased in terms of its effectiveness. The whiff rate has gone down 25% from 2023 and the Stuff+ on that pitch has gone from 139 to 105. That's a big problem because his fastball is a complete liability. The velocity on his fastball is down on average from 94.9 mph last year to 93.7 mph this season, when last year he allowed a .397 xwOBA on it.

The Rangers are one of the few lineups, like the Braves, that do not have very many weaknesses. Last season, they were one of the better teams against right-handed fastballs and curveballs.

The Rangers' bullpen has been a little bit of a mess to begin the season, so I am going to steer clear of them. I have the Rangers projected at -105 favorites for the first five innings, so I like the value on them at +126.

Pick: Rangers F5 ML (+126 via FanDuel)