MLB Best Bets Today | Odds, Picks for Mets vs Diamondbacks, Pirates vs Dodgers (Thursday, July 6)
Pictured: Bryan Reynolds celebrates with his teammate Henry Davis after hitting a home run. (Photo by Michael Owens/Getty Images)
Getaway day in Major League Baseball is more robust than normal, with 13 games still on the slate, including a trio this afternoon.
Our MLB analysts are focused on the night slate, however, with picks on Rangers vs. Red Sox, Mets vs. Diamondbacks and Pirates vs. Dodgers. We have a trio of moneyline bets, including a pair of underdogs.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Thursday, July 6th.
Thursday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Rangers vs. Red Sox
By Sean Zerillo
If you have been tailing me this season, you have probably noticed that the model is generally higher on Kutter Crawford (3.34 xERA) than the betting market. Models like his fastball, cutter and slider (107 Stuff+), and Crawford has above-average command (102 Location+).
Among 196 qualified starters this season (min. 20 innings pitched), Crawford ranks 38th with a 103 Pitching+ figure. Nathan Eovaldi (101 Pitching+) is 85th. And on paper, both his Stuff+ and Location+ have declined about five or six points relative to last season.
Despite the pitch modeling regression, Eovaldi has better results than ever (2.64 ERA, 3.26 xERA). Still, his K-BB% remains in line with his level from last season. Eovaldi has been unquestionably lucky (.266 BABIP, .307 career; 77.7% strand rate, 72.2% career), but he is also allowing more weak contact than ever before, and his groundball rate (51.7%) can help suppress home runs (0.64 HR.9; 0.97 career).
While I project advantages for Texas across the board in this matchup, its most significant edge might be its defense (+44 Defensive Runs Saved or DRS, 2nd vs. -7 DRS, 21st).
Pick: Red Sox ML (+123)
Mets vs. Diamondbacks
By Kenny Ducey
On Wednesday night, I faded the Mets’ offense against a fly ball pitcher. On Thursday night, I’m gonna do it again.
The Mets are in the top five of the league over the last two weeks in fly ball rate, which represents a stark contrast to the team we’ve seen over the past year and a half. Under Buck Showalter, the Mets’ offense has thrived off of getting the ball back into play on the ground at all costs, but lately they’ve experienced a power surge with so many balls being hit into the air.
Well, at Chase Field that doesn’t go over so well. It’s ranked 24th of the 30 big-league parks in home run factor, which makes hitting fly balls a fruitless endeavor at times. The good news for Arizona is that Ryne Nelson’s ground ball rate has steadily been dropping all season, going from around 40% in the first two months of the year to 29.9% in May and 26.3% in his first start of July.
I think that should help keep the Mets at bay here, and with Carlos Carrasco on the hill I think the Diamondbacks are an easy call here. The veteran is striking out just 16.3% of hitters and compounding that with a 10.5% barrel rate, making for a poor matchup against any team in any park.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-130)
Pirates vs. Dodgers
By D.J. James
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been a touch above average against left-handed pitchers in the last month, and they get to face one in Julio Urías on Thursday. Urías has been underwhelming for the Los Angeles Dodgers this season with a 4.94 ERA against a 4.40 xERA. His barrel rate has increased to nearly 10%, and his hard hit rate is up over 3.5% since 2022, as well.
He faces Johan Oviedo, who has been about the same with a 4.61 ERA against a 4.49 xERA. Oviedo usually yields some hard contact, but his barrel rate is below Urías', and their xwOBAs are nearly identical.
Pittsburgh has a 101 wRC+ off of southpaws in the last month. They have a .737 OPS and a 9% walk rate, so they have been solid with the bats.
Against righties, the Dodgers have fallen off a bit. They now have a 104 wRC+ since July 6 with an 8.7% walk rate and .743 OPS.
These two are nearly identical, so with Urías having trouble on the hill, it is hard to see why the Dodgers are so heavily favored. Yes, Los Angeles has a 3.90 xFIP in relief. They have multiple reliable options, so this should usually give them a small edge.
The Pirates have three active arms below a 4.00 xFIP. David Bednar is also good at the back-end, so this provides a boost. Since Oviedo can usually go at least five innings strong, the Pirates are the right play with relief pretty much covered.
Play them to +165.