Twins vs. Pirates Odds & Pick: Expect A High-Scoring Affair On Wednesday Night

Credit:

Jason Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Trevor Williams.

  • The streaking Twins take on Trevor Williams and the struggling Pirates on Wednesday evening.
  • BJ Cunningham analyzes the odds and explains why he's betting the over.

Twins vs. Pirates Odds

Twins odds -186 [BET NOW]
Pirates odds +160 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-100) [BET NOW]
Time 7:05 p.m. ET

Odds as of Tuesday night and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Minnesota is on an absolute roll to begin the season, winning nine of their first eleven games to start the season. Their bullpen has been stellar with a 3.77 xFIP and a .197 batting average against in 44 innings of work. The Pirates’ rebuilding year is in full effect as they’ve only two games to start the season.

Twins

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Twins picked up right where they left off last season, blasting 16 home runs in their first eleven games. The Twins were one of the best power-hitting lineups in 2019 and are even deeper with the addition of Josh Donaldson to a roster that hit a league-leading 307 dingers last year.

It’s tough to get through the Twins lineup with fastballs and sliders. They finished as the best team in baseball against fastballs and third against sliders last season. It just so happens those are Trevor Williams’ main two pitches. I think the Twins should have no trouble with his stuff and hit it all over the yard.

Twins Projected Starter

Randy Dobnak, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Randy Dobnak has only pitched 37.1 innings in the big leagues, but he’s been solid. He posted a 3.77 xFIP along with 52.9% ground ball rate. That high ground ball rate is a good indicator that his sinker was working in 2019.

Dobnak’s not going to fool anybody. He stuff isn’t overpowering, but he does a really good job with location. His sinker and fastball don’t garner a high whiff rate, but were really effective in his limited action last season. His curveball is a different story. In 2019, it garnered a 46.3% whiff rate and 14 strikeouts in 28.1 innings. However, the Pirates ranked in the Top 10 of MLB against curveballs last season, so Dobnak will have to use his sinker and fastball a lot on Wednesday night.

Pirates

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Pittsburgh’s bats have been awfully quiet to begin the season. They rank 29th in MLB with a .251 wOBA and 59 wRC+. They’ve struggled against cutters and fastballs to begin the season, which aren’t Dobnak’s main two pitches, so they’ve should have a good opportunity to get their offense back on track.

Pirates Projected Starter

Trevor Williams, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

 

Williams is the definition of an average MLB pitcher. He has a four-pitch arsenal, but none of his pitches are very effective — all four yielded a wOBA of over .340 to opponents in 2019 and also didn’t generate solid whiff rates. The Twins should should be able to shell him tonight.

Twins & Pirates Bullpens

The Twins bullpen is a little tired coming into this game after pitching 17 innings over last three days. Pittsburgh’s in the same spot having to pitch 14.2 innings over the past three days.

Twins-Pirates Projections & Pick

With the Twins offense looking like a juggernaut again and two below average starters on the mound, I think this game is destined to be high scoring. Since I have 9.93 runs projected for this game I am going to go up a half a run and take the alternate total of 9 at +106 (DraftKings) and I would bet it up to -108.

Pick: Over 9 (+106)

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