We have 9 games on Thursday, but even with a shorter slate, I've got a lot of options to offer you some bangers.
Read on for my 5 home run picks today, including props for Guardians vs. Yankees, Orioles vs. Red Sox, Athletics vs Cubs, Pirates vs Astros, and Dodgers vs Diamondbacks.
MLB Home Run Picks Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 8:05 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Guardians vs Yankees Home Run Pick
These odds are low, but they aren't low enough. Slade Cecconi hasn't allowed a ton of bombs to lefties this season, but he's historically been a big plus matchup for lefty power.
This ballpark is one of the best in the league for lefty power, and the weather should be great for hitting, with winds blowing out at 6 mph and temps in the mid-80s.
I have the true odds here around +220, making this a great bet.
Pick: Ben Rice 1+ Home Runs (+240)
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Orioles vs Red Sox Home Run Pick
Gunnar Henderson gets a great spot, and these odds are a bit too high.
The weather in Fenway Park should be great for hitting, with temps in the low-90s and wind blowing out at 13 mph.
Brayan Bello has been broken this season, allowing a massive 2.32 HR/9 to lefties, and he has historically been a plus matchup for lefty power.
I have the true odds here around +420, making this a great bet.
Pick: Gunnar Henderson o0.5 Home Runs (470)
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Athletics vs Cubs Home Run Pick
This is a great spot for the Cubs lefties. Tonight will be a wind game in Wrigley Field, with temps in the mid-80s and wind blowing out at 13 mph, which should be a massive increase to HRs.
J.T. Ginn isn't a bad pitcher, but he's struggled heavily with lefty power in his career, allowing a high 1.76 HR/9.
I have the true odds here around +300, making this a great bet.
Pick: Michael Busch o0.5 Home Runs (+330)
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Pirates vs Astros Home Run Pick (+420)
Brandon Lowe has been on a tear this season, and these odds are too high.
This ballpark is a big upgrade for power, and the matchup isn't bad. Kai-Wei Teng has been around an average matchup for power, but he grades out as a plus matchup for lefty power.
I have the true odds here around +375, making this a great bet.
Pick: Brandon Lowe o0.5 Home Runs (+420)
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Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Pick (+410)
Justin Wrobleski has been good this season, but he's due for a ton of negative regression.
His HR/FB rate is sitting at 4.7%, which is not sustainable. Both the fly-ball rate and hard contact rate have been above average, and he grades out as a matchup that is well above average for righty power.
Marte sat out last night, but he should be in the lineup tonight and has been on a tear recently.
I have the true odds here around +370, making this a great bet.
Pick: Ketel Marte o0.5 Home Runs (+410)
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