We have a shorter nine-game slate today, starting early with Padres vs Phillies at 1:05 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park on MLB.TV, and closing with Pirates vs Astros at 8:10 PM ET at Daikin Park on MLB.TV.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Thursday, June 4.
Below are 5 expert MLB best bets today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each matchup our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 2:10 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Tanner McGrath's Padres vs Phillies Best Bet
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams:
In matchups between winning teams, sportsbooks often inflate totals due to perceived offensive capability, yet these teams also tend to have stronger pitching and tighter late-game execution — leading to a profitable edge on the Under.
Zack Wheeler is still pitching like one of the league’s best. Sure, his last start against the Dodgers looks iffy on the surface (four earned over six frames), but he actually posted his highest single-game Pitching+ mark of any start this season (127).
This is a great bounce-back spot for Wheeler against a Padres offense that has been in a slump for the better part of a month — the lineup has posted a league-low 76 wRC+ over the past month.
I’m no believer in Lucas Giolito, but the Padres have a great defense and an elite bullpen behind him. Plus, the Phillies haven’t been world-beaters in the batter’s box (88 wRC+ over the past 30 days).
Pick: Under 8 (-110 or Better)
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Giants vs Brewers Best Bet
Coleman Crow is one of Milwaukee’s better pitching prospects. He’s been running stupid high strikeout rates in the minors (upwards of 30% at Triple-A) behind some really nice secondary stuff, specifically a slow-but-bendy curveball (118 Stuff+ rating).
Unfortunately, his arsenal is far from powerful. His secondary stuff sits in the high-70s, and he relies heavily on a mediocre cutter that sits around 88.
I don’t expect the Brewers to give Crow a long leash. But that’s okay because the Brewers have an elite bullpen (second in reliever fWAR, 3.1) behind a bunch of well-developed arms.
The Giants have gotten their offense out of the gutter over the past month (117 wRC+), but I think it’s smoke and mirrors behind a high BABIP (.303, fifth-highest during the stretch). The lineup still lacks a decent pitch-to-pitch process (hence their stupid-low walk rate), and their quality-of-contact numbers indicate regression (past 30 days: .337 wOBA, .312 xwOBA).
Speaking of regression, the Brewers are posting a .319 BABIP over the past month, the second-highest mark during the stretch. I think they’re also hitting above their heads (.325 wOBA, .316 xwOBA during the stretch).
I don’t trust Adrian Houser, but when I plug him, Crow, these two offenses, and a -5% weather-related run-scoring factor (per BallParkPal) into my model, it spits out an 8.6-run projected total.
Additionally, our own Sean Zerillo projects just 8.55 runs for this matchup.
As a reminder, you can see all of Zerillo's MLB game projections with an Action PRO Subscription. Find his projected lines every day on the PRO Projections tab.
I believe that Crow and Co. can handle San Francisco’s sluggish, likely overvalued lineup. And I think Milwaukee’s offense is also overvalued, which gives the Giants�� stable of below-average pitchers and fielders a shot, especially given the relatively high 9.5-run total.
Pick: Under 9 (-110 or Better)
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Evan Abrams's Blue Jays vs Braves Best Bet
By Evan Abrams
The Atlanta Braves look to complete a three-game sweep on Thursday evening as they host the struggling Toronto Blue Jays at Truist Park.
Atlanta has dominated the first two games of this cross-league set, securing a tight 4-3 victory in the opener before cruising to a 7-3 win on Wednesday night.
In yesterday's contest, the Braves flexed their muscle early when Mauricio Dubón launched a go-ahead, three-run homer in the third inning.
That blast set the tone and continued Atlanta's absolute mastery over left-hander Patrick Corbin, who surrendered four runs over five frames to saddle his 12th consecutive loss against the Braves.
With that victory, Atlanta improves to an impressive 42-20 overall and 19-10 at home, leaning heavily on a potent lineup that boasts a .325 on-base percentage, ranking fifth in the National League.
Conversely, the Blue Jays enter this series finale mired in a four-game losing streak, falling to 29-33 overall and an underwhelming 12-20 on the road.
Toronto's path to a bounce-back win looks incredibly steep on paper, given tonight's pitching matchup.
The Braves are handing the ball to ace Chris Sale, who has been nothing short of spectacular this season. Sale enters the night with an 8-3 record, a microscopic 2.01 ERA, a 0.94 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts.
He has been especially untouchable in front of the home crowd, pitching to a 4-1 record with a dazzling 0.60 ERA and a 0.87 WHIP across five starts at Truist Park.
Toronto counters with Mason Fluharty, who brings a respectable 3-0 record but a much higher 3.97 ERA and 1.37 WHIP.
If Toronto is going to crack Sale, they will likely need a big night from George Springer, who has the most experience against the veteran southpaw among all active Blue Jays, carrying a .250 average and one home run against him.
While the pitching matchup heavily favors Atlanta and has driven the betting line up to an expensive -203, the smart money value actually lies with the Blue Jays as steep +172 underdogs.
This prediction leans heavily into the data-backed "Road Dogs Interleague" system developed by betting analyst Evan Abrams. Historical trends in Major League Baseball reveal that oddsmakers consistently undervalue road underdogs in non-conference, interleague matchups.
Since 2016, road underdogs across leagues have won only 43.3% of their games outright, yet they have generated a highly consistent positive return on investment.
This market blind spot has proven profitable for five consecutive seasons, signaling a recurring inefficiency in how sportsbooks price these specific games. The bias usually stems from the betting public's overconfidence in home favorites, combined with a general lack of regular familiarity between teams from different leagues.
With the line inflated due to Chris Sale's dominance and Toronto's current losing streak, the price on the underdogs has become too wide.
Backing the Toronto Blue Jays on the moneyline offers excellent mathematical value and aligns with a proven long-term winning system.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+150 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Royals vs Twins Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
I don’t care how many pitches Seth Lugo is throwing (Statcast classifies eight with none more than 20% of the time), I’m not buying.
His only estimator within half a run of a 3.55 ERA is a 3.15 FIP, which is nearly two runs below his 4.99 xERA because only four of his 22 barrels have left the park.
Last year, even with the fences further back in Kansas City, making it one of the toughest power environments in the league, 27 of Lugo's 47 barrels turned into home runs.
In other words, there's not a single bit of reliable evidence that Lugo can sustain a 4.8 HR/FB and remain a true sub-four pitcher.
While his pitch modeling has actually improved (4.12 Bot ERA, 95 Pitching+) from 2025 (5.09, 90), Pitching+ still only qualifies the curveball above average (110). PitchingBot is a bit more generous, but still gives him an overall 41 for BotStf.
Lugo has become very hittable if he’s not perfectly commanding, and LHBs in particular have smoked him since last season (.350 wOBA, .364 xwOBA).
This is a matchup where the Twins project to line up six from that side against him. As a whole, the regular Minnesota lineup against RHP is averaging a 103 wRC+ and .161 against RHP since last season.
Importantly, I’m not sure how many people realize that Statcast now casts Target Field as a top-five run environment with a 106 Park Run Factor, tied with Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati and ahead of Fenway.
The current weather forecast also suggests a further bump that could make this park play around 10% above average, though we don’t have an umpire yet, as this is the only series starting on Thursday.
The final components are a neutral defense and a terrible bullpen for the Royals. Their 5.17 FIP/4.37 xFIP/4.20 SIERA mark them as the fourth-worst bullpen over the last 30 days. They don’t have a single right-handed reliever currently pitching well.
I like the Twins to exceed their 4.5 run team total more than half the time in this spot.
Pick: Twins TT Over 4.5 (+100 or Better)
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Kevork Mahserejian's Pirates vs Astros Best Bet
Jared Jones is one of the most talented young starters in baseball, yet he struggled in his first start this season. He allowed five earned runs in 4 and 1/3 IP, with two walks and two home runs allowed.
Fortunately, there was a silver lining. He earned six strikeouts, and his average fastball velocity was up a full mile per hour above his 2024 rate. Jones was not perfect in his rehab outings leading up to this season's debut, but he showed enough to believe this first start was rust.
The Astros rank 13th against RHP this season and feature a lineup loaded with right-handed hitters. Yordan Alvarez and journeyman Taylor Trammell are their only regularly starting left-handed hitters.
Jones' career wOBA against lefties is .335, while just .305 against righties. He could bounce back well if he avoids mistakes against the potential AL MVP, Yordan Alvarez.
Meanwhile, Kai-Wei Teng is in no need of a bounce-back. He has a fantastic 2.57 ERA this season, with just three earned runs allowed in his past three starts (16 IP). Teng is a recently converted starter and is only somewhat lucky according to his 3.59 xERA, 3.83 xFIP, and 3.82 SIERA.
However, Teng has a fatal flaw. His splits against left-handed hitters are exploitable.
- Teng vs LHH – .341 wOBA and 12.6% K-BB
- Teng vs RHH – .213 wOBA and 16.3% K-BB
The Pirates' lineup features several left-handed batters and switch hitters. They will likely field an offense with two righties at most today. This offense ranks fourth against RHP with a 114 wRC+ this season.
Even if Teng is knocked out early, the Astros will not have many LHP to counter Pittsburgh's offense. Bryan King and the recently activated Josh Hader are reserved for high leverage, leaving Steven Okert as the only option.
Unless Teng can provide length for the Astros, this game should be Pittsburgh's to lose.
Pick: Pirates ML (-115 or Better)
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