The Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles on June 4, 2026. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Orioles are -102 on the moneyline and are favored by -1.5 on the run line. The Red Sox are -118 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10.5 runs.
Find our MLB picks and Orioles vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction
- Orioles vs Red Sox Pick: Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-133)
Our Orioles vs Red Sox best bet is on Trevor Rogers to record under 4.5 strikeouts this afternoon. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Red Sox Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 10.5 -105o / -114u | -102 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -183 | 10.5 -105o / -114u | -118 |
- Orioles vs Red Sox moneyline: Orioles -102, Red Sox -118
- Orioles vs Red Sox over/under: 10.5 (-105o / -114u)
- Orioles vs Red Sox spread: Orioles -1.5 (+150), Red Sox +1.5 (-183)
Orioles vs Red Sox Probable Pitchers
| LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) | Stat | RHP Brayan Bello (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-6 | W-L | 2-5 |
| 0.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 6.84 / 4.64 | ERA / xERA | 5.63 / 5.96 |
| 4.85 / 4.82 | FIP / xFIP | 5.12 / 4.17 |
| 9.1 | K-BB% | 7.4 |
| 35.0 | GB% | 49.7 |
| .323 | BABIP | .330 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 101 | Location+ | 103 |
Orioles vs Red Sox MLB Betting Preview
Action PRO projects Orioles starter Trevor Rogers for 3.53 strikeouts in today's matchup against the Red Sox, giving us an excellent 14.9% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 4.5, which is good enough to tag the under with a B+ grade in our system.
Rogers has seen some of his metrics go down this year. He has a 17.3 K% compared to last season's 24.3, and there's also been a sharp decrease in K-BB% from 17.5 to 9.1 this season.
This afternoon, Rogers will face a Red Sox lineup that does much better against left-handed pitchers. Boston is 17th in the majors in strikeout percentage (22.1%) and 25th in wRC+ (93), but against LHP it ranks 10th (21.5%) and eighth (107), respectively.
Orioles vs Red Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
Rogers has gone under this line in all of his past five games, with totals of 2, 3, 3, 2 and 3 Ks in those contests.
He already faced the Red Sox on April 25, lasting only one and 2/3 innings, with three earned runs and just two strikeouts.
Considering all of this, let's fade him tonight on his Ks line against Boston.
Pick: Trevor Rogers Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-133, DraftKings)
