MLB Expert Predictions: Our Staff’s Favorite Bets for Rays-Padres, 4 Other Monday Games


Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joey Lucchesi.

Aug 12, 2019, 06:10 PM EDT
  • Our experts give out their favorite plays for Monday's MLB slate, including the Reds at Nationals (7:05 p.m. ET) and Rays at Padres (10:10 p.m. ET).

Collin Wilson: Pirates at Angels

Mitch Keller (0-1, 10.50 ERA) vs. Jose Suarez (2-3, 6.22 ERA)

  • Pirates Moneyline: +131
  • Angels Moneyline: -141
  • Over/Under: 10
  • First pitch: 10:07 p.m. ET

A look at the ERA’s on these starting pitchers screams to the over.

In the case of Keller, the Pirates’ pitcher has just 12 innings of service in the big leagues after piecing together over 100 innings with a 3.56 ERA in Triple-A. Most importantly, Keller has been able to maintain a K/9 rate of 10.68 in that time.

While the Angels did not strikeout against righties through the initial portion of the season, Los Angeles has had an increase to 23.7% strikeout rate since July 1.

The Pirates have had issues with left-handed pitching all season. Since May 1, Pittsburgh is dead last in wRC+, wOBA and walk percentage in the major leagues against southpaws.

Throw in the fact the Bucs are on travel from a weekend series in St. Louis and we may find a flat spot for the Pirates.

The PICK: Under 10

Danny Donahue: Reds at Nationals

Anthony DeSclafani (7-6, 4.20 ERA) vs. Erick Fedde (2-2, 4.20 ERA)

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