For Friday, August 29, I'm on four MLB home run props: Taylor Ward, Adolis Garcia, Tyler Soderstrom and Nick Kurtz.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Friday.
Editor's Note: A home run parlay is not the author's formal recommendation. These home run picks have value as straight bets.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Friday, August 29
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 8:10 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
| 10:05 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for August 29
Taylor Ward (+420)
at Astros (SP: RHP Cristian Javier)
Taylor Ward and the rest of the Angels' righties are in a great spot. We haven't seen much of opposing pitcher Cristian Javier this season, but in his career, he's been a great matchup for righty power.
Javier is a good pitcher but struggles heavily with fly balls to righties, giving up a massive 60% fly-ball rate in his career to go along with above-average hard contact.
Add in the high pull rate and the Crawford boxes, and this is a big plus matchup. I have the true odds here around +325, making this a great bet.
Adolis Garcia (+450)
at Athletics (SP: LHP Jeffrey Springs)
The Texas power righties have a great matchup, and they aren't priced anywhere near where they should be.
Opposing pitcher Jeffrey Springs has been crushed by righty power this season, allowing a high 1.75 HR/9 to go along with heavy fly-ball and hard-contact numbers.
This ballpark represents a massive upgrade for Texas hitters, and the weather is expected to be ideal for hitting, with temperatures in the low 90s and wind blowing out at 5 mph.
I have the true odds for Adolis Garcia around +325.
Tyler Soderstrom (+400)
vs Rangers (SP: RHP Jack Leiter)
Going hard on the A's, as the spot is too good.
Rangers pitcher Jack Leiter hasn't been bad so far in the majors, but he is a good matchup for power. He has allowed only a slightly above-average 1.25 HR/9 in his career, but with a 10.4% HR/FB rate, he's due for some negative regression.
This ballpark is one of the best in the league for home runs, and the weather should be great for hitting.
It's a great bet: I have the true odds here around +350 for Tyler Soderstrom.
Nick Kurtz (+240)
vs Rangers (SP: RHP Jack Leiter)
As mentioned, Leiter is a good matchup for power. His splits are neutral when it comes to home runs, and he has roughly the same strikeouts, fly balls, and hard contact allowed to both sides of the plate.
With great weather in a hitter-friendly ballpark, I'm backing Nick Kurtz again with true odds around +200.
