For Friday, September 5, I'm on 4 MLB home run props: Kyle Manzardo, Jose Ramirez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Andy Pages.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Friday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Friday, September 5
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 7:05 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 5
Andy Pages (+600)
at Orioles (SP: RHP Dean Kremer)
I have no idea why the odds are so high on Andy Pages. The matchup is a plus one going up against Deam Kremer and the weather in Baltimore is a plus today with winds blowing out at 10 mph and temperatures in the mid 80s. Also, Pages has been in good form recently with increased fly ball and hard-contact rates since the beginning of August. I have the true odds on Pages here under +500 today, making this a great EV bet.
Kyle Manzardo (+500)
at Rays (SP: RHP Griffin Jax)
It looks like the Guardians are going to get Griffin Jax as an opener and Ian Seymour for long relief today. Jax is an average matchup for lefty power, and Seymour grades out as a splits-neutral pitcher who allows above-average power to both sides of the plate. The matchup is a great one and the ballpark is an upgrade with the short right-field porch. The weather is a plus for hitting, even with the wind blowing in at 5 mph. I have the true odds around +400 for Manzardo today, making this a great EV bet.
Jose Ramirez (+450)
at Rays (SP: RHP Griffin Jax)
I'd prefer for Jose Ramirez to face a righty for the whole game in this spot, given the short right-field porch, but this is still a good spot and the weather is above average for hitting. I have the true odds around +400 today, making this a good EV bet.
Vinnie Pasquantino (+750)
vs Twins (SP: TBD)
This is strictly a price play for Vinnie Pasquantino. The ballpark isn't great, the weather isn't great, and the matchup is below average, but the odds are too good to pass up. Pasquantino has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball over the past month and has been absolutely crushing the ball. I have the true odds under +600 today, making this a great EV bet.
