For Monday, September 1, I'm on four MLB home run props: Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Yainer Diaz, and Julio Rodriguez.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Monday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Monday, September 1
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:10 p.m. | |
| 1:10 p.m. | |
| 2:10 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 1
Francisco Lindor Home Run (+625)
at Tigers (SP: RHP Charlie Morton)
I have absolutely no idea why the Mets are priced so high in this spot, but I'm going to take advantage of it. Morton has been a plus matchup for power to both sides of the plate, allowing 1.4 home runs per nine innings and grading out as an above-average matchup for power.
Leadoff Lindor is just one of the power bats that are all priced like they're facing a well-above-average pitcher at suppressing power. I have the true odds on Lindor under +500 today, making this a great EV bet.
Pete Alonso (+350)
at Tigers (SP: RHP Charlie Morton)
We are going heavy on the Mets this afternoon. Like Lindor, Alonso is in a great matchup against Morton, who has allowed 1.6 home runs per nine innings to right-handed hitters this season.
Additionally, Alonso has begun to heat up again, having homered in two of his last five games and three of his last 10. I have the true odds on Alonso around +300 today.
Yainer Diaz Home Run (+630)
vs Angels (SP: LHP Yusei Kikuchi )
The matchup vs. Kikuchi is one of the best in the league for righty power. While he's been better at suppressing power this season, he's still allowed a large 1.49 HR/9 and has historically been one of the best matchups in the league for righty power.
Additionally, Kikuchi allows an above-average pull rate, which plays great with the Crawford Boxes over in Houston. I have the true odds on Diaz around +500, making this another massive +EV addition to our card.
Julio Rodriguez Home Run (+475)
at Rays (SP: RHP Shane Baz)
It's imperative to target the power righties for the Mariners, as the spot is too good. Opposing pitcher Shane Baz has been crushed by righty power this season, allowing a massive 1.87 HR/9. He is due for some positive regression, but still grades out as a great matchup for righty power.
J-Rod has been in great form recently, and I have the true odds here under +400.
