MLB Home Run Props Today | Mookie Betts, Nolan Jones, Manny Machado (Wednesday, July 19)
Getty Images. Pictured: Nolan Jones, Mookie Betts, Manny Machado
Baseball betting is one of a kind. Each day diving into a full slate is grueling and sometimes edges are nowhere to be found within a side or total. But opportunities to fade pitchers at a lesser degree remains a constant. One of the areas in which I've tapped into this season has been the player prop market. More specifically, looking at hitters and their total bases/home runsprops.
Whether it's a positive split or the wind blowing out in double-digit force, there's always opportunities to back some of MLB's best hitters to find the outfield seats. These bets are rarely not (+) money and home run props can often reach the 6-700 mark, providing plenty of value at a small cost.
That leads us to my new regular feature here at Action Network: DiSturco's Triple 7s. In each article, I will give out my three favorite total bases props and pair that with the odds for those same players to hit a home run.
The idea of Triple 7s comes from the slot machines. That's the ultimate jackpot and it's important to note the rarity of notching that feat. Similar to slots, parlaying all three players below to hit a home run is nothing more than a lottery ticket.
It's important to bet responsibly, and while I do bet every player o1.5 TBs (.5u) and to hit a HR (.1u), you shouldn't overextend yourself with a parlay of all three. It's a long shot for a reason.
But if you're feeling confident or have no plans and want to try and hit Triple 7s, pull the lever and cross your fingers. Today's lottery ticket comes with +13718 odds.
Visit our MLB Props page for a full list of props and odds for every player on the MLB slate each and every day.
Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
If you follow me in the Action app, Mookie Betts has been giving me an extremely tough time of late. But this is another matchup that I can't pass up with the wind blowing out against a home run-prone righty.
Betts has fallen to second on the Dodgers in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, but he still sits at an impressive 147. His isolated power is third on the team behind J.D. Martinez and Max Muncy with half the amount of strikeouts.
It’s rare to see Betts fall into a slump, and I don’t expect a 1-for-9 stretch in two days to continue for long. He has become nearly split-proof this season with an OPS above .900 against both righties and lefties, and he ranks inside the top 3% of all hitters in xSLG and xwOBA.
You normally don’t expect Betts to pack quite a punch, but he’s also in the top 10% of all hitters in average exit velocity and xBA. He is one of the most disciplined hitters at the plate and, as I mentioned earlier, draws a great matchup against Dean Kremer.
Kremer is not only due for negative regression with a 5.39 xERA, but he has clear concerns with his underlying metrics. The righty has a hard-hit rate of 45% and he’s barreled on over 10% of balls put into play.
He normally does not walk batters — a plus here with betting total bases and home runs — and is slightly below average in strikeouts. To date, he has a .278 xBA and .493 xSLG.
The wind is also blowing out to dead center with a temperature of 85 degrees, which RotoGrinders’ WeatherEdge projects as a +23.2 HR increase based on a 123-game sample.
Nolan Jones, Colorado Rockies
In Coors Field with the odds all but juiced for Houston against Austin Gomber, there is value on another slugger in Jones.
Brandon Bielak takes the mound for the Astros, and he’s long been a negative regression candidate. His xERA is up at 5.75 — nearly two runs higher than actual — and he carries a .278 xBA and .488 xSLG through 11 appearances. He has a career-low 11.9 barrel rate and his strikeout rate has dropped nearly 5% this season.
All that is to say that he’s extremely prone to not only the long ball, but being hit hard in general. Jones ranks first on the Rockies in wRC+ (123) and ISO (.229) among consistent batters. Pick your poison between him and Ryan McMahon, both of whom are left-handed power bats that carry plenty of pop.
😱NOLAN JONES 472 FEET TO END THE GAME pic.twitter.com/CxilXikIM5
— Colorado Rockies (@Rockies) June 11, 2023
While there are areas the 25-year-old needs to shore up — like his 33% strikeout rate — he has an impressive 11.8 barrel rate and has seen his xSLG (.483) grow from his limited time in the bigs last season.
He also carries a .275 average against both lefties and righties, a positive in case of a pitching change — Jones may be kept in. But against right-handed pitching is where he thrives, with an .883 OPS and 44.4% extra base hit rate.
I’m expecting negative regression to settle in for Bielak, and there’s no hitter more powerful in this Colorado lineup than Jones. I’m throwing .5u on over 1.5 total bases (+100) and .1u on HR (+520) at FanDuel.
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
Manny Machado has become a force to be reckoned with over the last few weeks. Criticized early and often amid the Padres struggles, Machado has hit .361 with seven home runs over the last 15 days.
While his numbers have dropped across the board this season, he remains consistent with a 9.7 barrel% and .447 xSLG. Prior to his turnaround, Machado was not consistently hitting the ball hard — his average exit velocity is down another touch this season — but his strikeout rate remained sub-20%.
When you look at Machado from an outsider’s perspective, you see a .233 average against right-handed pitching. But that came with the early-season struggles. We’ve seen his wRC+ finally jump above that 100 point and he has a 41.5% extra base hit rate against righties. That number against lefties? Nearly 10% lower.
Jose Berrios takes the mound for the Blue Jays on Wednesday, and while he has taken a step forward this season — he was one of Action Network’s favorite fades last year — his xSLG (.443) remains in the bottom 25% of all pitchers.
Berrios has been on a month-plus roller coaster. In his last two starts, he’s thrown 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball. The three starts prior: 16 innings, 11 runs, FIVE home runs.
I’m of the belief that the Padres are on the precipice of a breakout, and Machado has been leading the offensive charge of late. Aside from Xander Bogaerts, Machado is also the most well-versed with Berrios, seeing 12 at-bats against the righty in his career (five hits, one HR).
I’m throwing .5u on over 1.5 total bases (-105) and .1u on HR (+450) at Bet365.
DiSturco's Triple 7s Home Run Bets for Wednesday, July 19
- Mookie Betts (+425)
- Nolan Jones (+520)
- Manny Machado (+450)
If you like all three plays and want to try a spin at hitting triple 7s, a $10 parlay of these three home run props at FanDuel comes in at $1,371.80
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