For Wednesday, September 3, I'm on 4 MLB home run props: Pete Alonso, Ketel Marte, Brandon Lowe and Vinnie Pasquantino.
Continue below for my MLB home run prop bets and HR parlay for Wednesday.
MLB Home Run Props, Picks, Odds — Wednesday, September 3
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 1:10 p.m. | |
| 3:40 p.m. | |
| 7:35 p.m. | |
| 7:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
MLB Home Run Picks for September 3
Pete Alonso (+375)
at Tigers (SP: RHP Casey Mize)
Pete Alonso has been one of the best home run hitters in the league since the All-Star break and the odds are a bit too high here.
Casey Mize has been a plus matchup for righty power this season, allowing 1.58 HR/9. The wind is blowing in, but the ballpark isn't terribly wind-receptive. I have the true odds on Alonso around +325 today, making this a great EV bet.
Ketel Marte (+500)
vs Rangers (SP: RHP Jack Leiter)
Ketel Marte is having a career year and has been hot recently with a homer in each of the first two games of this series.
Jack Leiter has only been an average matchup for lefty power this season, but he's due for some regression with a 9.2% HR/FB rate and a 35% hard-contact rate. I have the true odds on Marte around +400 today, making this a great EV bet.
Brandon Lowe (+450)
vs Mariners (SP: RHP George Kirby)
Brandon Lowe is playing at home, which is a big bump for lefty power, and so is the matchup.
George Kirby is a good pitcher, but he's struggled against lefty power, giving up 1.4 HR/9 this season. Tampa Bay is one of the best ballparks in the league for lefty power, and the weather is hot and humid today. I have the true odds on Lowe around +350 today, making this a great EV bet.
Vinnie Pasquantino (+575)
vs Angels (SP: RHP Caden Dana)
Vinnie Pasquantino has slowed down a bit after his massive start, but he's still one of the better power hitters in the league, and we are getting a great price.
We don't have much of a sample size of Caden Dana in the majors, but he gave up a large 1.54 HR/9 in the minors this season and grades out as a well-above-average matchup for lefty power. I have the true odds on Pasquantino today over 100 points lower, making this a great EV bet.
