MLB NRFI Odds, Pick, Prediction: Under Has Surprising Value at Coors Field Between Mike Clevinger, Austin Gomber (Tuesday, July 12)
Ethan Mito/Clarkson Creative/Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Gomber
Shayne Trail breaks down his favorite NRFI/YRFI bet of the day below, but you can follow all of his bets in the Action Network app.
Padres vs. Rockies – No Runs First Inning (+126)
|Matchup||Padres (Clevinger) vs. Rockies (Gomber)|
|First Pitch||8:40 p.m. ET|
On Tuesday, we travel to the hitter’s paradise of Coors Field to take a NRFI between the Padres and Rockies.
The Padres will send out Mike Clevinger, who has spent some time the IR since coming over to the Padres, which has made him fly under the NRFI radar.
He comes into today with a respectable 6-1 NRFI record. In 29 first-inning batters, he has only allowed five hits while holding his opponent to a .192 average.
Clevinger’s true NRFI potential is found once you dig into him as a favorite. Since 2019 across two teams, he has been an outstanding 25-7 to the NRFI.
Here is how he has done in the past against these Rockies hitters:
- Charlie Blackmon: 1-for-5
- Brendan Rodgers: 0-for-1
- Ryan McMahon: 0-for -2
- Jose Iglesias: 1-for-13
The Rockies’ projected Nos. 3 and 4 hitters are hitting well below their averages this week. In their last seven days, they have hit for a combined 8-for-41. The Rockies will also be without their hottest hitter, Kris Bryant.
The Rockies will counter with Austin Gomber. Despite pitching in the worse pitching ballpark in baseball, he comes into today with an 11-3 NRFI record with six of those wins coming at home. Gomber is highly proficient at home: since 2019 across two teams he holds a 16-3 NRFI record.
Here is how these Padres hitters have done in the past against Gomber:
- Jake Cronenworth: 4-for-10
- Manny Machado: 4-for-13
- Eric Hosmer: 0-for-5
- Trent Grisham 0-for-9
In the last seven days, Padres four-hole hitter Luke Voit is just 3-for-18. Machado and Croneworth are also flirting with being marked as “slumping” as they are only slashing for .208 and .216 averages.
Despite the names on paper, the Padres in the month of July are only hitting for a lousy .171 first inning average in 40 plate appearances.
On an 8-2 NRFI run, the Padres come into today achieving the NRFI on the road 78% of the time. The Rockies’ NRFI at home near 70% of the time.
There is tremendous value in playing the over-hyped Coors Field NRFI. Bet on Gomber to remain dominant with his home NRFI split, and for Clevinger to continue his NRFI success as a favorite.
Take the plus money NRFI on the Between the Padres and the Rockies.
As always, six outs to glory…
For all of Shayne Trail’s favorite NRFI/YRFI bets, follow him in the Action Network app.