We have a full 15-game MLB slate on Friday, so we'll try to make the best out of it with three MLB NRFI picks for Friday, May 16.
Let's dive into my MLB NRFI and YRFI picks and model predictions.
MLB NRFI, YRFI Predictions, Picks, Odds
Guardians vs. Reds NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Tanner Bibee vs. Brady Singer
This game is tricky to project, as both starting pitchers have first-time-through-the-order ERAs in the mid-twos but xFIP marks in the fours.
Usually, that would be enough to put me off the bet. But, considering that we're getting plus money on a YRFI in a game with a nine-run total, I'm willing to take the chance.
Especially at Great American Ball Park. The second or third (depending on metric) best offensive park in baseball sees 16% more scoring than Progressive Field, where Tanner Bibee plays his home games. That tends to expose differences between underlying metrics like xFIP and ERA.
While that doesn't explain Singer — he has a 4.97 overall ERA, so it's likely he's just been lucky early in games — Cleveland has a tough top of the lineup, so it's hard to bank on that continuing.
Nationals vs. Orioles NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Mackenzie Gore vs. Cade Povich
My model has the Nationals nearly twice as likely to score in the first inning as the Orioles tonight.
While that's not the same as winning the first inning outright, it's undoubtedly a good building block.
The most significant factor is the starting pitching.
Not only has MacKenzie Gore been a revelation this year, but Baltimore ranks 29th among MLB lineups in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
The only hitter in their first four batting spots with an above-average wRC+ against lefties this season is Gunnar Henderson — he's hitting .163.
Cade Povich is a much easier pitcher to get to, with a 4.39 xFIP that jumps to 4.45 his first time through the order. The first three Nats batters are above average this season, so they have a solid chance.
The other option is the two-way moneyline (which returns the bet in case of a tie or NRFI), where Washington is -105 at Caesars.
Twins vs. Brewers NRFI/YRFI Prediction
Starting Pitchers: Joe Ryan vs. Chad Patrick
The Twins have been relatively solid at the top of the order this season, but they're almost certainly missing their best hitter tonight.
Byron Buxton leads the team in home runs and steals and is the only top-of-the-order hitter with a wRC+ over 110 on the season. He entered the concussion protocol last night.
Plus, the Twins are battling Chad Patrick, who has a 1.02 ERA his first time through the order this season.
On the other side, Joe Ryan's ERA early in games is 3.50, but his xFIP is about a run lower.
He also gets a massive park upgrade from Minnesota to Milwaukee, with the difference being about 10% less scoring.
If you can't get the -120 at BetMGM, both DraftKings and Caesars have -125 lines.
