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MLB Best Bets: 2 Picks for Monday, Including Diamondbacks vs. Padres

MLB Best Bets: 2 Picks for Monday, Including Diamondbacks vs. Padres article feature image
Credit:

Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Jurickson Profar.

  • Monday's MLB slate features only nine games, but our staff sees betting value on the latest one.
  • We have two props picked out for Diamondbacks vs. Padres, including picks for Zach Davies and Jurickson Profar.
  • Check out both breakdowns for Monday night below.

Monday’s MLB slate isn’t a big one, but we still found some betting value on a couple of props for a late game.

With Zach Davies taking the mound for the Diamondbacks against Yu Darvish and the Padres, our staff came through with a player prop for each team.

Check out both bets below, and be sure to check back tomorrow for more picks from a loaded Tuesday slate.


MLB Odds & Picks

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Diamondbacks vs. Padres
9:40 p.m. ET
Diamondbacks vs. Padres
9:40 p.m. ET

Diamondbacks vs. Padres

Pick
Jurickson Profar Over 1.5 Total Bases
Book
DraftKings
Pitchers
Zach Davies vs. Yu Darvish
First Pitch
9:40 p.m. ET

Jules Posner: The San Diego Padres welcome the Arizona Diamondbacks to town for a three-game series, and a match-up I’m keen on is Jurickson Profar against the Diamondbacks’ pitching.

Profar has settled into the leadoff spot nicely for the Padres, and he’s been hot at home recently. He’s posted a .381 BA, .381 ISO and four extra-base hits at home against right-handed pitching over the past three weeks.

Additionally, he’s eclipsed 1.5 total bases in seven of his 14 games over the past four series. He seems to be benefitting from hitting in front of Jake Cronenworth and Manny Machado.

Zach Davies takes the mound for the Diamondbacks, and he hasn’t fared particularly well against left-handed hitters over his past four starts on the road. Against LHH on the road in May and June, he’s allowed a .282 BA and a .385 SLG. Four of the 11 hits he’s given up have gone for extra bases.

Furthermore, the D’Backs’ bullpen has allowed .274 BA in the past three weeks. This should give Profar at least four — if not five — shots at going over 1.5 total bases.

His odds sit at +135 as of writing, so as long as they remain in plus territory, there’s value here.

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Diamondbacks vs. Padres

Pick
Zach Davies Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Book
FanDuel
Pitchers
Zach Davies vs. Yu Darvish
First Pitch
9:40 p.m. ET

Tony Sartori: We have the first matchup of this three-game NL West intradivisional series as the San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks.

We will be backing right-hander Zach Davies, who is slated to take the mound for the Diamondbacks in this contest.

We’re getting an over-adjusted number on his strikeout prop, as the Padres are a wagon right now. That being said, Davies has recorded at least five strikeouts in each of his last four starts and should be a solid candidate to do so once again.

Since May 1, the Padres rank just 19th in the league in K% when facing right-handers at home. Additionally, Padres superstar Manny Machado is slated to miss this game due to a lower-body injury sustained in yesterday’s game.

While one player missing this game definitely should not be the reason to take a line, it certainly benefits the rest of the handicap. Taking Machado out of the equation, this current Padres roster has 31 career plate appearances against Davies.

Out of those 31 plate appearances, Davies has produced a respectable 23% strikeout percentage.

I would play this line down to (+135).

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