MLB Odds & Picks: 4 Best Bets for Tuesday, Including Astros-Yankees, Braves-Nationals & Blue Jays-Athletics (May 4)
Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- A jam-packed slate of 17 games are on the MLB schedule for Tuesday.
- Our analysts have found angles on three games, with four total bets.
- Continue reading to find our staff's best bets for Tuesday's MLB action.
It’s a full day of MLB action on Tuesday, as two Monday rainouts mean we have a pair of doubleheaders on the schedule and 17 games in total. As always, that means plenty of betting action, and our analysts have found plenty of bets to recommend.
We have four best bets for Tuesday’s action, including a moneyline favorite, a moneyline underdog, a team total, and a game total. Below, you will find our four best bets for Tuesday’s MLB action.
MLB Odds & Picks
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Kenny Ducey: The Yankees have figured something out at the plate. Over the past two weeks, they’re third in baseball with a 116 wRC+, cutting strikeouts to 20.4% to rank fourth in the league over that time period and sit first in walk rate. This team doesn’t mirror the one that began the season as one of the worst offensive clubs in the bigs.
Opposing them will be a version of Zack Greinke that isn’t as dominant as previous models, with a considerably worse strikeout rate but improved numbers in the contact department. Through his six starts, he’s managed to lean on his control, failing to blow anyone away, and that’s worked against some weak offenses. We’ve seen that backfire in his two most recent starts against two good offenses in the Angels and Mariners, against whom he gave up six runs on an alarming 14 hits over 11 innings. That doesn’t have me so confident coming into Tuesday’s game.
Then, there’s the narrative. The Yankees have vocalized their displeasures with the Astros’ cheating during their World Series run, in which they took down the Yankees in a hotly contested ALCS. Against Houston at home in recent years, the Yankees have won more times than not, and they will have the benefit of fans at Yankee Stadium.
Overall, I’m bullish on the Yankees’ offense and trust Domingo Germán and his league-average hard-hit rate against a Houston team that’s looked pedestrian since its hot start. This is good value.
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Brad Cunningham: The Braves are going to have a fantastic matchup against Joe Ross, who you could make the argument outside of one bad start has pitched pretty well. However, Ross didn’t pitch at all in 2020 and in 2019, he had an xERA of 5.71 and opponents hit .270 against him. Ross is mainly a sinker/slider/fastball pitcher, which is good news for the Braves lineup. Atlanta was the best fastball hitting team in baseball last season and has five guys in the lineup with a wOBA better than .350 against sinkers.
Not to mention, Atlanta was the best team in baseball last season in wOBA and wRC+ against right-handed pitching, so the Braves should be able to knock Ross out of the game early and get into the Nationals’ below-average bullpen.
I have the Braves projected for 5.40 runs, so I think there is some value on their team total over 4.5 runs at -113
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Mike Ianniello: The Nationals have finally found their footing after a slow and COVID-delayed start. They have won four games in a row and sit atop the NL East standings. The Braves are reeling a bit, dropping four-straight and coming off a three-game sweep to Toronto.
Washington ranks fifth in team batting average and eighth in on-base percentage this season. Trea Turner has been carrying the Nats early in the season, batting .309 and leading the team in hits, runs, steals and home runs. Newcomers Josh Bell and Kyle Schwarber have really struggled to start the year.
Despite having what appears to be decent success with one horrible outing, I’m not sold on Joe Ross. Ross allowed 10 runs on April 19, but has otherwise allowed just one run across three starts. Ross has been the beneficiary of excellent fielding, and has a 5.73 FIP compared to his 4.64 ERA. He also has an incredible 81% left on base rate, which is unsustainable.
I don’t know if any team has been more inconsistent at the plate than the Atlanta Braves. They have been held to under two runs five times this season, but have also scored eight or more runs five times. Atlanta is 13th in batting average but fourth in wOBA. This over will likely either hit with ease, or not even come close.
Huascar Ynoa is another pitcher where you can look at his game log and feel like he has been decent outside of one start, but the underlying numbers concern me as well. Ynoa sits in the bottom 10% of the league with a 51.5 HardHit% and 15.2% Barrel rate. Teams have a .190 batting average and .410 slugging percentage against him but an expected .262 xAVG and .526 xSLG.
Both of these pitchers have benefitted from good luck on the mound while both teams have suffered bad luck at the plate. I am going to bet on regression from both and back the over 9 (would play up to -120).
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Oakland Athletics
Kevin Davis: Records can be deceiving this early in the season. The Oakland Athletics are 18-12 and the Toronto Blue Jays are 14-13. However, Oakland’s run differential is -5, while Toronto’s is +22. This is a better predictor of future success. Over the course of a full season, the Blue Jays should have a winning record while the Athletics should have a record that hovers near .500. Things usually even themselves out eventually.
What is most impressive about Toronto’s performance is that it has performed well without George Springer, their expensive offseason acquisition. Springer made his Blue Jays debut this weekend and he will make them even more dangerous moving forward. Toronto is averaging 4.59 runs per game this season, which is above the league average of 4.33. With Springer, my model projects the Blue Jays to average 4.78 runs on a typical night this season.
My only worry about Toronto is that they are playing on the road and have a weak starting pitcher in the unproven Anthony Kay. However, Oakland’s Cole Irvin should be no match for the Blue Jays’ offense, and Toronto has a much better bullpen.
I like Toronto as +112 underdogs and I would play them up to +100.
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