MLB Odds, Expert Picks & Predictions: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Orioles vs. Nationals, Padres vs. Mariners, More (Sept. 13)
Denis Poroy/Getty Images. Pictured: Yu Darvish #11 of the San Diego Padres.
- Tuesday night's MLB slate is loaded with 15 games.
- Our analysts have found value on three games, including a late matchup between the Padres and Mariners.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of our best bets for Tuesday.
As we hit the final stretch of baseball, teams are keenly aware of their place in the standings and how important every game is to their respective races.
Check out their favorite bets for Tuesday night’s MLB slate below.
MLB Odds & Picks
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
Jules Posner: It’s been a rough season for the Angels, which is great news for bettors looking for value. Jose Suarez gets the start for the Angels on Tuesday night and he’s been really good since the All-Star break.
Over that span he’s pitched to a 1.76 ERA with a 2.66 FIP. While he has had a relatively soft schedule over that span, the fact that he’s put up such good numbers against those underperforming teams should inspire some additional confidence.
Although the Guardians have posted a 109 wRC+ against LHP at home over the past month, that is only 16th in MLB and their .096 ISO and .346 BABIP over that span mean they are due for some regression as well.
Additionally, the Angels offense has been hot as of late and they’ll be taking on Cody Morris and a Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen that has a tendency to be a closer to average unit the more they get stretched out.
The Angels’ first five moneyline can still be found in plus money on some books and that should be the play if you’re hunting for value. This line has also moved to minus money on a fair amount of books as well, so all signs are pointing to backing the Angels in the first five innings Tuesday night.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
DJ James: The Washington Nationals will face Dean Kremer and the Baltimore Orioles on Tuesday evening. The Nats have shown a spark as of late. They have a 111 wRC+ off of right-handers in the last month, which ranks ninth in the MLB.
Baltimore has fallen off a bit, hitting-wise, with a 83 wRC+ in that same timeframe. They have six batters with a .320+ xwOBA off of righties, while five hitters are averaging at least 89 MPH off the bat.
Kremer is not a very good pitcher. He has a 3.23 ERA, yes, but his xERA is 4.44. He also ranks in the 14th percentile in Hard Hit Rate and the 37th percentile in Average Exit Velocity. He rarely strikes anyone out (18.5%). His saving grace is he throws strikes.
The Baltimore bullpen has also fallen off a bit with a 4.07 xFIP, ranking 17th in the MLB. They only strike out 19.2% of hitters since Aug. 13.
All of these signs point to value on the Washington Nationals team total over. They are discounted because they no longer have Juan Soto and Josh Bell, but overall, they are performing better. They should be able to score at least four runs. Take the total from 3.5 (-110), and play it to 4.5 (+100).
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
Charlie DiSturco: This is the perfect sell spot for Logan Gilbert who continues to be one of the more fortunate pitchers in MLB.
The 25-year-old has a 3.23 ERA in his second big league season, yet expected indicators sit nearly a half-run to a run higher. He also ranks in the bottom five percent of all pitchers in hard-hit rate.
Despite back-to-back six inning shutouts, Gilbert has a 4.26 ERA since the All-Star break and actually struggles at T-Mobile Park compared to on the road. He doesn’t generate many chases out of the zone and while he has good command, opponents see the right-hander well.
Opposite him is Yu Darvish, arguably San Diego’s most reliable pitcher. While Darvish’s strikeout numbers have dropped in 2022, his control and velocity remain unfazed. Expected indicators sit in the mid–to-high 3s, better than his opponent Gilbert, and enters with a 3.13 ERA since the All-Star break.
Seattle has the clear bullpen advantage in this matchup, which is why I’m avoiding the full-game moneyline and instead targeting the Padres over the first five innings on Tuesday night.
I believe Darvish should be favored here and it’s a perfect buy spot on San Diego given Gilbert’s alarming advanced metrics and the fact that Seattle enters after a series win against Atlanta. I grabbed this at plus money but would still play SD down to about -115 over the first five.