MLB Odds & Picks: 5 Best Bets for Sunday, Including Dodgers vs. Braves (June 26)
Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Tony Gonsolin (Dodgers)
Another week means another loaded Sunday slate! The Red Sox look to continue their six-game winning streak as they take on the Guardians. The Braves face off against the Dodgers at home in a rematch of last year’s NLCS. And don’t forget about Astros-Yankees from the Bronx.
With all this in mind, our experts dove into five different games to provide five best bets for a full slate of MLB action. So without further ado, here’s our picks below.
MLB Odds & Picks
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins
Tony Sartori: The over has not been a good bet in this matchup so far this season.
I’m not sold on David Peterson’s success thus far this season, and Daniel Castano is due for some big regression.
The Mets have been hitting well all year while the Marlins have started to swing the bats better recently.
Add two mediocre bullpens to the mix, and I think this game can get to nine runs.
Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees
Jules Posner: The Astros’ bullpen seems to have bounced back from their meltdown in Thursday night’s series opener.
However, this game seems like it’s going to come down to starting pitching, and the Yankees have a clear edge in that department.
The under does have some appeal in this game, but so does the over. Astros moneyline in plus money is tough to sell, considering how they’ve performed against lefties on the road and the prospect of a rough Jose Urquidy road start.
The Yankees’ runline is at +120 right now, and that seems like a really good value considering it’s the 2022 Yankees.
Although this matchup is tough to call, Yankees runline seems to have the best value, and the numbers support it.
Oakland Athletics vs. Kansas City Royals
William Boor: Not many people are looking at the Sunday slate and circling A’s-Royals, but James Kaprielian has really struggled this season and is a solid fade candidate.
The right-hander has yet to register a win and has pitched to a 5.98 ERA through 10 starts. While his 5.27 xERA suggests he’s been a tad unlucky, that’s still a fade-worthy number.
Kaprielian threw well (two runs over 5 1/3 innings) in his last start, but his WHIP has gone up from May (1.35) to June (1.66) and none of his advanced metrics suggest he’s close to turning it around.
Kaprielian ranks in the 26th percentile or worse in the following categories: xBA, xERA, xSLG, Barrel%, K%, BB%, Whiff %, Chase Rate and Fastball spin.
Add in the fact that he’ll hand the ball off to a bullpen that ranks 26th in baseball with a 4.49 ERA, and it’s hard not to like the Royals at home on Sunday afternoon.
Now, to be fair, the Royals aren’t exactly in the upper echelon of baseball teams, and Sunday’s starter, Brady Singer, has had his fair share of struggles, as well.
Singer has a 4.34 ERA through 10 games (seven starts) and a 4.08 xERA. His advanced metrics — with the exception of his BB% — aren’t elite, but they’re better than Kaprielian’s. He’ll also be facing an anemic Oakland offense.
Both of these teams are in last place in their respective divisions, though the Royals — despite losing to the A’s on Saturday — have been playing better of late. Kansas City has won three of its past five, while Oakland has lost four of five.
Bet this down to -180.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Nicholas Martin: Yu Darvish has been completely dominant at Petco Park, and he’ll matchup on Sunday against a Phillies lineup that’s still not hitting right-handed starters very effectively.
Darvish has a 1.34 ERA at home this season and has been stellar across each of his starts in June, with a combined WHIP of just 0.74.
It’s been well covered that the Phillies’ lineup has been significantly more potent versus left-handed pitching. Altogether against righties this season, Philadelphia has hit to a wRC+ of just 97 with a WOBA of .311. They’ll offer a softer matchup for Darvish, who has shined of late.
Kyle Gibson’s xERA of 3.78 suggests he’s due to fare better soon, especially should his opponents’ batting average with RISP trend downwards from .354, which is the second highest mark in the league amongst qualified starters this season.
San Diego’s third-worst xSLG of .401 continues to suggest regression is coming, especially considering the current lineup shortages, such as Manny Machado. I believe part of the Padres’ success throughout June has come due to the far easier than average slate of opponent pitching staffs.
With each pitcher more likely to thrive Sunday than it may appear on the surface, playing the under on a 5 innings total of 4 at almost even money looks like a strong proposition to me.
I would back this down to -120.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves
Tanner McGrath: These two pitchers have huge upside potential and both are already capitalizing on it.
While these are two top-tier offenses, these are also two top-end bullpens. In fact, the Dodgers rank first in MLB in reliever xFIP (3.51) and the Braves rank second (3.57).
The wind is projected to blow straight in on Sunday evening and although it’s not much, it’s enough to nudge me toward the under just a bit more.
I like the under at 8.5, as long as we’re laying no more than -110 juice.