MLB Best Bets: 4 Top Picks From Tuesday’s Slate, Including Angels vs. Marlins & Giants vs. Diamondbacks
Photo by Dustin Bradford/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: German Marquez (Rockies)
- NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara is on the mound for the Marlins tonight, and he's just one of the players our analysts are targeting.
- Along with Marlins-Angels, our analysts are on Phillies-Nationals, Giants-Diamondbacks and Rockies-Dodgers.
- Continue reading for full analysis of those matchup, including all of our best bets from tonight's MLB slate.
Here are our best bets from Tuesday’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Los Angeles Angels vs. Miami Marlins
For a starter who throws 98 mph on average with his fastball, it is hard to envision not giving up hard contact. On the contrary, Alcántara’s average exit velocity against is below 87 mph, ranking in the 84th percentile.
Noah Syndergaard ranks in the 78th percentile, so he is comparable, but his ERA is 3.86 against a 4.18 xERA.
Against righties in the last month, Miami is average at 99 wRC+. What stands out in this game is how poorly the Angels have fared when facing right-handers. They rank 25th in the MLB at 86 wRC+, which is well below league average.
Alcantara has three complete games thrown in the last two months and has gone at least seven innings in every start since May 11. The Angels will not find a way to defeat him. Take the Marlins from -125 to -145.
Washington Nationals vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Brad Cunningham: It’s no secret that the Phillies struggle versus right-handed pitching without Bryce Harper in the lineup.
Overall for the season, they’re 14th in terms of wOBA, but Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the only hitters in their lineup with a wOBA over .330.
On Tuesday they’ll be facing Paolo Espino, who is a below average starting pitcher, but is a heavy fastball pitcher, which is a pitch that the Phillies have had success against (+18.8 run value), but +8.4 of that is coming from Harper.
Cristopher Sanchez is making only his second start in the big leagues. It’s not like he’s this highly touted prospect the Phillies called up. He’s the team’s 28th-ranked prospect (per FanGraphs) and had spent 10 years in the minors before getting called up.
His numbers in Triple-A last season where he had a decent sample size of 73 innings was not impressive, putting up an xFIP of 4.03 and a BB/9 rate of 5.92. So, it’s a little crazy that he is this big of a favorite.
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Jules Posner: After a surprisingly high scoring affair Monday night, the San Francisco Giants look to stop their six-game slide on Tuesday night at the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The Giants are going to be a weird team all season because they are designed to succeed over a 162-game sample, so there are bound to be peaks and valleys. This is their third losing streak of five or more games so far this season, yet they are still two games over .500.
In between their first two big losing streaks they went on their longest winning streak of the season, rattling off six straight wins. Tuesday night seems like a good opportunity for them to get back in the win column.
Alex Wood looks to be the stopper for the Giants and although his numbers look rough this season, he is incredibly tough on left-handed hitters and the Diamondbacks’ lineup features a lot of left-handed hitters.
Tyler Gilbert gets the ball for the Diamondbacks and the combination of him and the Diamondbacks’ bullpen may be what the Giants need to get their offense rolling again.
There’s a chance the Giants get Thairo Estrada back from the COVID IL and perhaps a recall of Joey Bart may give the Giants some extra right-handed bats while giving them a shot in the arm.
This pick is more a fade of the Diamondbacks’ pitching than an endorsement of the Giants, but at -105, the Giants’ run line is a good value for a team looking to bounce back. This could be played to -120 or better.
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Anthony Dabbundo: Germán Márquez has been one of the worst starters in all of MLB this season, but I’m buying low on the Rockies right-hander.
He’s been considerably better away from Coors Field this season with a 4.21 road ERA, compared to 7.17 at home. His quality of contact allowed is considerably better on the road because his stuff+ metrics — which looks solely at pitch velocity and shapes — has registered much better too.
Márquez has nothing else in his pitching ability that would suggest the sharp decline that we’ve seen this season. He’s facing a depleted Dodgers lineup that doesn’t pack the same punch at the bottom of the order due to recent injuries.
Mitch White starts for the Dodgers and while he’s been solid with expected indicators under 4.00, he’s a bit of an overvalued favorite here in the first five innings. He’s got average K-BB ratios, mediocre barrel rates and even though he’s otherwise avoided hard contact, White doesn’t have stuff that would suggest he’s actually a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher.
The Rockies could get bad Márquez and lose this going away, but if improved road Marquez shows up, they’re live. At +184, it’s a good value play. I’d play it to +175 or better.