Tuesday MLB Odds & Best Bets: Our Top 4 Picks, Featuring Rockies vs. Mariners, Pirates vs. White Sox, More (June 22)
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Charlie Blackmon.
- With every MLB team in action Tuesday, there is plenty of betting opportunity everywhere you look.
- Our staff found four prime opportunities and broke them down as their best bets, including White Sox vs. Pirates, Marlins vs. Blue Jays, and Rockies vs. Mariners.
- Check out all four picks complete with a full betting breakdown below.
With 15 games on today's MLB slate, the schedule is as big as it could possibly get. That means there's plenty of opportunity on the board and plenty of bets to make.
Our staff has four favorites, starting with White Sox vs. Pirates and Marlins vs. Blue Jays just after 7 p.m. ET followed by Giants vs. Angels at 9:38 p.m. ET and concluding with Rockies vs. Mariners at 10:10 p.m. ET.
Check out each pick complete with a full betting breakdown, and use the table below to navigate to any of the four matchups.
MLB Odds & Picks
White Sox vs. Pirates
DJ James: Of the southpaws the White Sox have recently faced, Tyler Anderson most closely resembles Ryan Yarbrough, who Chicago crushed for 10 hits and seven runs in 6.1 innings on June 16.
After getting clobbered in Houston, the White Sox need a bounce-back, and all signs point to that happening tonight against the Pirates. Anderson does not necessarily induce hard contact, but he doesn’t strike batters out. He also allows around 10% barrels, so the White Sox should look to have a field day.
On the pitching end, Lucas Giolito looks to straighten out the struggling starting pitching. Luckily for him, the Pirates do not boast the lineup of the Astros. Giolito has looked stellar since mid-May, and that trend should continue tonight.
Look for the White Sox bats to come alive. They are still batting with a 122 wRC+ against lefties collectively this season. Yoán Moncada and José Abreu, as well as the rest of the lineup staples, struggled in that series.
However, Andrew Vaughn is an added bonus against southpaws with a 216 wRC+ on the season, so they have plenty of more weapons off this side of the hill. Take the White Sox -1.5 run line to -115. They should cover this number pretty easily.
Marlins vs. Blue Jays
Tanner McGrath: As they usually are, the Fish are undervalued tonight.
The Blue Jays and Marlins both opened at even odds, but sharp money has pushed Miami to a short favorite, even as high as -130 at some books (PointsBet, Bet365). It would be wise to follow the smart money here because the Marlins have advantages across the board.
First, the pitching matchup heavily favors the Marlins. Sandy Alcantara is blowing his 98-mph fastball past everybody this season, posting a 3.09 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 15 starts this season. Plus, Alcantara is coming off his best start of the season in which he tossed 8 1/3 shutout innings against the Cardinals, adding to his league-leading innings pitched margin:
Nobody in baseball has pitched more innings this season than Sandy Alcantara (93.1 IP) pic.twitter.com/xX8VyDiEnF
— Fish Stripes (@fishstripes) June 16, 2021
While he’s having an excellent season, the hard-throwing Alcantara could actually be due for some positive regression. His his ultra-low barrel rate (3.5%) and average exit velocity (87.2 mph) has fueled a ridiculously low 2.86 xERA. Look for Alcantara to continue post a ton of quality innings behind that ridiculous fastball:
Sandy Alcántara, Overpowering 3 Pitch K Sequence (all Fastballs). pic.twitter.com/XTA060ylpB
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 6, 2021
Meanwhile, Toronto’s Ross Stripling is entering today’s game with some awful advanced stats. He’s posted a barrel rate above 11% and an average exit velocity approaching 91 mph, and his career high average launch angle (16.1 degrees) has led to a career-low ground ball rate (37.7%).
All-in-all, Stripling is allowing a lot of hard-hit fly balls, including a lot of long-balls (1.66 HR/9). Thus, he’s posted a 4.64 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP this season, and the Blue Jays are just 4-7 in his starts.
Once the starters get pulled, Miami owns the advantage in the bullpen, too. Over the past seven days, the Marlins bullpen has pitched the second-fewest innings of any staff (13 1/3), meaning they’re well-rested. Meanwhile, over that same span, the Blue Jays relievers have thrown 22 2/3 innings while posting a whopping 6.65 FIP and a ridiculously high 1.46 WHIP.
Toronto has the advantage offensively, but it’s negligible enough to easily side with the better pitching staff. I played the Fish at -120 on BetMGM but would play them as a moderate favorite up to -140.
Giants vs. Angels
Jeff Hicks: The Giants are one of the best teams against left-handed pitching, including on the road. San Francisco is top-five in walk rate, OBP, slugging, OPS, ISO, weighted runs above average, wOBA, wRC+, home run-to-fly ball ratio, and medium hit percentage.
Angels starter Andrew Heaney has pitched better than his ERA indicates, but he has been dreadful at home (5.04 ERA) and oddly enough against left-handed hitters. Heaney has 14 walks in 30.1 home innings compared to six in 32.1 innings in road starts.
The Angels also have a bottom-10 bullpen should Heaney falter. The Giants are the third-best team in WAR in the league and are the only team with double-digit positive WAR on offense and defense.
Rockies vs. Mariners
Brad Cunningham: Boy, oh boy, do we have two bad starting pitchers on the mound today.
Kyle Freeland has been getting shelled and quite frankly has been the worst starting pitcher in Major League Baseball, as his xERA and xFIP are both over 6. His BB/9 is almost at 5, and he has the highest HR/9 rate in baseball at an astounding 3.92.
If that's not enough, opponents are hitting .387 against him through his first five starts. Not surprisingly, his top four pitches are allowing a wOBA over .400, so even though the Mariners have struggled versus left-handed pitching, they should be able to get to Freeland.
Chris Flexen hasn't been much better, as his xERA is currently sitting a 4.37 and opponents are hitting .284 against him. He's mainly a fastball/cutter pitcher, allowing a wOBA over .345 on those two pitches. The Rockies lineup, despite being below average against right-handed pitching, absolutely crushes fastballs, as they rank eighth in Major League Baseball with 18.6 weighted fastball runs this season.
I have 5.20 runs projected for the first five innings, so I think there's some value on over 4.5 runs at -108 and would play it up to -115.
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