It's another big Sunday on the diamond, chock full of afternoon games.
Read on for our MLB Picks, Predictions, and 5 best bets for Sunday, April 12.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 1:40 PM | |
  | 2:15 PM | |
  | 4:10 PM | |
  | 7:20 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Diamondbacks vs Phillies Over/Under Prediction
By Sean Paul
I have no faith in Zac Gallen and will be an integral part of determining Arizona's legitimacy.
He allows a .299 xBA (12th percentile) and ranks below the 25th percentile among qualified pitchers in average exit velocity allowed (91.3 mph) and barrel rate allowed (12.5%). His strikeout rate is down to 14.3% from 21% last year, which was the one thing he still did well. Perhaps it's a conscious effort to hunt for fewer K's for quicker outs, but that only works if the contact is weak.
Gallen could struggle against the Phillies patient offense. And that'll give way to a Diamondbacks bullpen that ranks 23rd among relief staffs in ERA.
It wouldn't shock me if Philly accounted for five or six of the nine runs on its own.
However, their starter, Andrew Painter, can't sustain a 1.93 BB/9 and 0.00 HR/9 forever. He walked over 3.5 batters per nine in Triple-A last year and gave up over 1.50 homers per nine.
MLB hitters will force Painter to stay in the zone. I expect more walks to come from him.
Plus, I love the Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, and Geraldo Perdomo Diamondbacks trio. Their proven track record makes me think that won't last long.
I'm rolling with the Over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-105)
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Yankees vs Rays Player Prop
By Nick Galaida
The Rays used six relievers behind starter Nick Martinez on Saturday in an extra innings win over the Yankees.
Tampa Bay has already won this weekend's series and will likely prioritize preserving their arm barn on Sunday, rather than aggressively setting up ideal matchups in the middle innings.
Drew Rasmussen is talented enough to get through five frames here, regardless.
Pick: Drew Rasmussen Over 14.5 Outs (-160)
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Red Sox vs Cardinals Top Prop Edge
By Action PRO
Action PRO projects Red Sox starter Brayan Bello for 3.6 strikeouts in their matchup against the Cardinals today, giving us a solid 15.3% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 4.5, which is good enough to mark the Over with an A- grade in our system.
He has seven total strikeouts in two starts so far, but has already issued eight walks and allowed eight earned runs, which spells trouble.
If Bello can't get it together against St. Louis, a high-pitch count and/or early struggles will cut short his start on Sunday.
Last season, Bello saw his strikeout numbers come down significantly, fanning just 124 batters across 166 and 2/3 innings.
Today, he will face a Cardinals lineup that ranks 11th in strikeout percentage with 21.4 this season.
Given his current form, let's fade him this afternoon in St. Louis.
Pick: Brayan Bello Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-136)
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Rangers vs Dodgers Over/Under System Pick
By Bet Labs
The Rangers send perennial two-time Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom to the mound, while the Dodgers counter with Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki. With two strikeout squaring off, this matchup should yield few runs
This is backed by a historically profitable model from Bet Labs. Our featured system for this afternoon is titled "Sunday Unders on Over streak."
This system targets MLB games where the home team is coming off one or two consecutive Overs. The Dodgers fit this criteria perfectly after their bats exploded earlier in the series, leading to inflated totals and a public perception that the runs will keep flowing.
Historically, when the opening total sits between 8 and 9.5 runs in this specific Sunday scenario, the Under has yielded a significant positive ROI. The logic is simple: the market overcorrects for recent offensive success just as fatigue settles in.
As the final game of a hard-fought series, and following a late-night game yesterday, we are seeing the classic getaway-day environment.
Losing even one or two elite bats from these lineups drastically changes the run-scoring expectation against elite pitching.
The system’s theory on pitcher familiarity also carries extra weight here. While these teams don't see each other often, after three days of scouting and seeing the bullpen arms multiple times this weekend, the advantage shifts heavily toward the pitchers.
Of course, we have Jacob deGrom’s 100-mph heater and Roki Sasaki’s devastating splitter facing tired lineups that are likely missing a starter or two.
With the Dodgers coming off an "Over" streak, the total of 8.5 is high enough to provide us with plenty of cushion.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-104)
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Guardians vs Braves Best Bet
There's a legitimate chance that the Guardians will have to go up against both Robert Suarez and Raisel Iglesias in this game, as they haven't pitched since Tuesday.
That means they'll be facing a potential NL Cy Young candidate in Chris Sale, alongside two relievers with closing experience. It's going to be tough for them to score runs in this one.
Despite Sale's recent poor start, he still has a 113 Stuff+ and a 25.4% strikeout rate, so there's no reason to worry about any decline in skill.
Both Suarez (27.3 K-BB%, 2.94 xERA) and Iglesias (26.3 K-BB%, 0.97 xERA) have been fantastic this year as well.
Look for the Braves to shut down the Guardians in this spot.
Pick: Guardians Team Total Under 3.5 Runs (-148)
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