Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Kev Mahserejian has that job for Friday, June 5.
MLB Picks, Predictions for Friday, June 5
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- Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+111)
- Framber Valdez Over 1.5 Walks (PK)
- Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-115)
- Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over 9 Total Runs (-118)
Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers Picks
Parker Messick takes the mound for Cleveland today and finds himself in an advantageous spot. The Rangers rank fourth-worst against left-handed pitchers this season, with an 83 team wRC+.
Texas also ranks second against LHP in strikeout rate (27.1%), just behind the Colorado Rockies (27.5%). The Rangers' offense features multiple left-handed hitters, with weak bench options forced into a short-side platoon.
When Wyatt Langford and Corey Seager return to the lineup, Texas may be more formidable against lefties, but for now, they remain vulnerable.
Parker Messick enters the game with an impressive 27.2% strikeout rate in 2026. He has only exceeded his 6.5 K line in 4 of 12 starts this season, but should be capable of achieving it against this struggling Rangers' offense.
The Guardians have exhausted multiple relievers in recent games and will likely seek length from Messick, who has hit at least five innings pitched in each start this year.
Pick: Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+111)
Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers Picks
The Tigers host the Mariners this week and will feature offseason addition Framber Valdez to start the series. Valdez's season is a disappointment thus far, and he is not doing his new home crowd any favors.
- Valdez at home: 5.14 ERA, 3.2% K-BB, 5.10 xFIP
- Valdez on road: 4.05 ERA, 13% K-BB, 3.93 xFIP
Luckily, for the sake of this bet, Valdez will be facing a Mariners' offense that ranks third-worst against LHP (81 wRC+). He is known for his ability to pitch deep into games and has thrown at least six innings in 8 of his 12 starts this season.
The Mariners' 9% walk rate against LHP is roughly average in the MLB and should be good enough to exploit Valdez's 8.5% walk rate (9.5% at home).
Valdez has crossed the 1.5 walk mark in each of his past four starts, with at least two walks in 9 of 12 starts.
Pick: Framber Valdez Over 1.5 Walks (PK)
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Picks
There will be a right-handed pitching duel between Michael Wacha and Zebby Matthews on Friday night. Wacha has a significantly better 3.23 ERA, but Zebby Matthews has impressive peripherals.
- Wacha: 3.97 xERA, 4.20 xFIP, 4.21 SIERA
- Matthews: 3.00 xERA, 3.72 xFIP, 3.36 SIERA
Matthews is the more talented pitcher, but luck has been on Wacha's side this season. Nevertheless, in a single-game vacuum, anything is possible. Luck can sway either way, and often it is best to bet on talent.
The Royals enter this game with a worse offense against RHP (91 wRC+) than the Twins (96 wRC+). Also, the Royals' bullpen is running on fumes.
Daniel Lynch and Alex Lange have pitched back-to-back games, Matt Strahm has pitched twice in the past three days, and John Schreiber is likely unavailable after pitching in three of the past four days. This leaves the struggling/demoted Lucas Erceg as their only "fresh" high-leverage reliever.
The Twins' bullpen is not fresh either, but Matthews could be asked to pitch deep into this game. He has hit at least six innings in three of four starts this season.
Pick: Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-115)
Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks Picks
The Nationals and Diamondbacks face off in Arizona on Friday night to start their three-game series.
Washington will be starting their stellar offseason addition, Foster Griffin. Griffin has been a pleasant surprise for the Nationals after returning to the MLB from the NPB. This is a similar story to that of opposing SP Merrill Kelly, who returned from the KBO in 2019.
Unfortunately, this is not a feel-good matchup for either SP. Griffin will be facing a Diamondbacks offense that ranks second against LHP this season, while Kelly will be facing a Nationals offense that ranks 11th against RHP.
Griffin has managed to achieve a quality 3.76 ERA this season, but his 4.47 xERA indicates some batted ball luck.
He is a better pitcher on the road, yet may not benefit much against an offense that can trot out eight right-handed batters on a given night. Griffin's .332 wOBA against righties is far worse than his .282 wOBA against lefties.
Meanwhile, Merrill Kelly is a worse pitcher at home and struggles heavily against lefties (.394 wOBA against). He is likely to face a Nationals offense with at least six left-handed batters in the starting lineup.
Also, the Nationals' bullpen is one of baseball's worst. If Arizona can knock out Griffin early, they can expose several of their mediocre relievers to cross today's total.
Pick: Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over 9 Total Runs (-118)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, June 5
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Parker Messick Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+111)
- Framber Valdez Over 1.5 Walks (PK)
- Minnesota Twins Moneyline (-115)
- Nationals vs Diamondbacks Over 9 Total Runs (-118)
