Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Sunday, May 24.
MLB Predictions, Picks for Sunday, May 24
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- Pirates vs Blue Jays — NRFI
- Rays vs Yankees — NRFI
- Guardians vs Phillies — Guardians to Score First, Jose Ramirez o1.5 HRR
- Cardinals vs Reds — Sal Stewart o1.5 HRR, Stewart o0.5 Home Runs
- Mariners vs Royals — Mariners ML
- Dodgers vs Brewers — Dodgers Run Line, Freddie Freeman o1.5 HRR
- Braves vs Nationals — Braves ML
- Athletics vs Padres — Padres F5 ML, Fernando Tatis o1.5 HRR
Pirates vs Blue Jays Picks
The Pirates continue onto their second consecutive road series and will look to reign supreme in an interleague clash versus the Blue Jays at their home ballpark, Rogers Centre in Toronto.
In what should be a phenomenal pitching matchup, 30-year-old right-hander Mitch Keller will take the mound for the Pirates while the Jays will send out Dylan Cease, who is off to a stellar first year in Toronto after having spent two seasons with the Padres.
While many were unsure what to expect from Cease in his first year pitching in the American League since he started his career with the White Sox, the Jays’ righty has re-established himself as one of the premier starting pitchers in all of baseball.
Cease’s 2.98 ERA ranks inside the top-25 in the Major Leagues while his 84 punch-outs rank second behind just the Brewers’ Jacob Misiorowski.
The 2022 runner-up for the AL Cy Young Award is making a second run at the award in 2026 behind an exceptional start to his season thus far.
Pirates’ righty Keller has been no slouch either in his eighth season with the team, and his 3.86 ERA across his first ten starts in 2026 ranks best since he concluded his 2022 campaign at 3.91.
What is even more impressive, Pittsburgh’s veteran has recorded a career-best 1.06 WHIP thus far, which ranks inside the top-25 in all of baseball.
In an interleague matchup featuring two very reliable starting pitchers, I feel good about backing there to be no runs scored in the first inning (NRFI) ahead of Sunday afternoon’s contest in Toronto.
Pick: NRFI
Rays vs Yankees Picks
The Rays conclude their three-game set at Yankee Stadium on Sunday afternoon and will surely be looking to gain the upper hand on their AL East divisional rival prior to returning to Tampa Bay for a homestand in a few weeks’ time.
Tampa will send out former ace Shane McLanahan, who is off to a phenomenal start since returning to the mound in 2026, while right-hander Will Warren will take the mound for the Yanks.
Rays’ 29-year-old left-hander has gone through a rollercoaster of a career featuring several highs and lows. McLanahan was a Cy Young caliber pitcher before injury concerns that really derailed the course of his young career.
Just a few years ago, Tampa’s ace was hands-down one of the best pitchers in all of baseball prior to a UCL tear that forced him to undergo Tommy John surgery, leading to many extended absences.
That said, while many pitchers are never the same after suffering the same fate, McLanahan is back with a vengeance and has finally reverted to his former self in 2026.
After having allowed eight earned runs (ER) across his first 18 frames of the season, McLanahan went on an absolute heater — not surrendering a single run over his next 22 innings on the mound.
Though the Rays’ lefty allowed four ER in his last start, I fully expect McLanahan to shine on Sunday afternoon at Yankee Stadium.
Like McLanahan, Warren has had a very up-and-down 2026 campaign in his third season in the Big Leagues. New York’s 26-year-old right-hander has recorded an impressive 6-1 record on the season and ranks 15th in baseball with 62 strikeouts.
Given the promising form of both starters heading into Sunday afternoon’s divisional clash, I favor backing no runs to be scored in the first inning in a game I expect pitching to reign supreme.
Pick: NRFI
Guardians vs Phillies Picks
The Guardians and Phillies will duke it out on Sunday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, with the game’s first pitch set to be tossed at 1:35 EST.
Phillies’ rookie right-hander Andrew Painter will take the mound in what will be the tenth start of his Major League season debut, while lefty starter Parker Messick will be on the bump for the visiting Guardians in an interleague battle featuring two young prospects.
Though both starting pitchers in Sunday’s matchup are at the start of their young careers, with the Guardians’ Messick in his second season in the Big Leagues, the two have been trending in opposite directions thus far in 2026.
After a very promising 2025 rookie campaign for Cleveland’s left-hander, who finished the season with a 2.72 ERA, the Guardians’ youngster has picked up right where he left off last season.
Messick has made ten starts in his second season in the Big Leagues thus far, and has dominated in every statistical category across the board.
The young lefty’s five victories on the mound thus far rank 12th in baseball, while his efficiency metrics on the bump (2.45 ERA & 1.02 WHIP) also rank 14th and 15th, respectively.
Messick has quickly established himself as one of the best young pitchers in the entire MLB, boasting an exceptionally versatile pitching arsenal to go along with an elite punch-out prowess as the Guardians’ lefty also ranks 11th amongst all starting pitchers with 63 strikeouts in 2026.
Unfortunately, the Phillies’ young righty has been unable to replicate Messick’s early-career success and has really struggled throughout his rookie campaign. In his first eight starts in the Major Leagues, Painter has recorded a whopping 5.77 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP to go along with a very low strikeout rate (K/9).
Painter was an extremely highly touted prospect, having been selected 13th overall in the 2021 MLB Draft while he was still in high school.
Despite his preliminary struggles, it is far from surprising that the scouts loved a 6 '7 right-hander who can consistently fire his four-seam fastball upwards of 100 MPH.
Philadelphia’s 23-year-old was one of the first high schoolers to pitch at the minor-league level, and Painter did so in tremendous fashion, having dominated with a 1.56 ERA.
Unfortunately, the Phillies’ youngster was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery, which has really impacted the trajectory of his career.
Painter’s resulting reduced velocity and command issues have plagued him all year long, and I do not expect that to change on Sunday afternoon versus a Guardians lineup boasting several hard-contact sluggers.
In a game the Guardians play on the road and hold a significant edge in the pitching department, I will be taking more of a unique betting angle, which is for Cleveland to score the first run in Sunday’s contest.
Also, I will be looking to target some of the Guardians’ player-prop markets to take advantage of Painter’s poor form heading into this interleague matchup.
Amongst Cleveland’s lineup, I expect Guardians’ superstar Jose Ramirez's hard-hit rate on both sides of the plate to give the Phillies’ young left-hander significant problems.
Especially in regard to Painter’s command troubles that have led to a very high walk rate, frequent runners on the basepaths surely make this an even better spot to back Ramirez to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark ahead of Sunday afternoon’s ball game.
Pick: Guardians to Score First | Jose Ramirez o1.5 HRR
Cardinals vs Reds Picks
National League Central foes collide on Sunday afternoon as the Reds prepare to host the Cardinals at the Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati.
Cardinals’ lefty Matthew Liberatore looks to bounce back from a rough start to his 2026 campaign, having recorded a 4.70 ERA thus far across his nine appearances this season.
In a matchup featuring two struggling pitchers, I expect both lineups to deliver an offensive explosion on Sunday afternoon, so I will be targeting player prop markets as my betting angle for this contest.
While in just his second season in the Big Leagues after suiting up for 18 games in 2025, the Reds’ 22-year-old top prospect at first base, Sal Stewart, has already made his mark as one of the best young sluggers in baseball.
The Reds’ righty is mashing at the plate, having driven in 34 runs (RBIs) and ripped 12 homers over Cincy’s first 50 games of the season.
Coincidentally, one of Stewart’s 12 bombs actually came off Liberatore, which is why I will be looking to go “back to the well” targeting the Reds youngster in prop markets ahead of Sunday’s ball game.
The Reds’ top prospect has already established an edge over the Cardinals’ left-hander, and I could definitely see Stewart building upon his prior success versus Liberatore with another monster performance.
That said, I will be looking to back Stewart both to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark on Sunday and also to smash his 13th homer of the year — and his second off of the Cardinals’ lefty.
Pick: Sal Stewart o1.5 HRR | Stewart o0.5 Home Runs
Mariners vs Royals Picks
The Royals are set to host Seattle to conclude their three-game homestand with the Mariners at Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City.
36-year-old veteran right-hander Seth Lugo will take the mound for the Royals, while the Mariners will be sending out an elite young arm in Bryan Woo, who is coming off a phenomenal 2025 campaign, having pitched in last year’s All-Star Game for the American League.
Woo has undoubtedly been one of the most consistent starting pitchers in all of baseball over the past two seasons, with Seattle’s righty having recorded both a sub-3 ERA and sub-1 WHIP in 2024 and then 2025.
While the 26-year-old’s ERA has taken a slight hike up to 3.51 thus far in 2026, Woo’s 0.98 WHIP still ranks inside the top-10 in the entire MLB.
That said, Woo’s increased ERA this season is mostly due to two outlier performances, of which the Mariners’ right-hander collectively allowed 13 earned runs (ER) across 19 frames in consecutive outings.
In just that two-start span, Woo allowed an insane six homers and has not allowed a single other ball to leave the yard in any of his other eight outings in 2026. In short, Seattle’s starter has elite stuff and is borderline unhittable when in top form.
Though his periodic volatility is definitely something to monitor for the remainder of the season. On the other hand, Royals’ righty Seth Lugo is trending downward after a phenomenal start to his 11th season playing in the Big Leagues.
After having allowed just four ER throughout his first five starts of the season across 30 frames on the mound, Lugo allowed 14 hits and seven ER in his sixth outing and has had difficulty finding the early-season form that resulted in his top-five ERA mark over the first few weeks of the 2026 season.
Lugo’s ERA has dropped rather significantly from right around 2.00 to 3.68 due to several poor starts on the bump, and I am most definitely concerned about his form for the remainder of the season given his age and apparent rapid decline.
The Mariners have a clear pitching edge in Sunday afternoon’s matchup and a far stronger lineup given the Royals’ offensive struggles at the plate aside from the production from their star shortstop, Bobby Witt Jr.
The rest of the Royals’ core, featuring the likes of Vinnie Pasquantino, Sal Perez, and Maikel Garcia, amongst a few others, is having a very difficult time finding a rhythm in the box over the first two months of the season.
That said, I think this is a great spot to back the M’s, who should have some value on the moneyline with Sunday’s contest being played in Kansas City.
Pick: Mariners ML
Dodgers vs Brewers Picks
The Dodgers will conclude their third consecutive road trip and will duke it out with the Brewers at their own American Family Field ballpark in Milwaukee.
Brewers’ 25-year-old right-hander Brandon Sproat will take the mound in what will be his eighth start of the season, while Japanese star pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto is set to be on the bump for the visiting Dodgers and will surely be looking to build upon his scorching start in 2026.
It has been nothing but business for the consecutive World Series– winning Dodgers as Dave Roberts’ bunch have picked up right where they left off, having won 31 of their 50 contests this season thus far.
Yamamoto is one of several elite arms in the Dodgers’ rotation and will surely be a rather difficult matchup for a young Brewers’ lineup that has started the season with several injury concerns.
The Dodgers’ NPB (Nippon Professional Baseball) product has been very impressive since leaving Japan for the Major Leagues and has recorded a 3.32 ERA thus far across his nine starts in 2026.
Yamamoto also ranks seventh amongst all pitchers in baseball with a WHIP of 0.96 to begin his third year in the MLB. On the other hand, Brewers’ youngster Brandon Sproat has not had the same success as his Sunday starting-pitcher counterpart.
While Milwaukee’s right-hander is in just his second season pitching in the Major Leagues, he enters this contest in relatively concerning form, with Sproat having recorded a 5.75 ERA across nine outings in 2026.
Not only has the Brewers’ righty struggled mightily thus far, but now he faces the most difficult lineup in all of baseball on Sunday afternoon.
Sproat has had an incredibly high walk rate in 2026, which I expect to be quite problematic when facing a disciplined Dodgers’ lineup boasting an extremely high team OBP (on-base percentage).
Though the 25-year-old has a versatile pitching arsenal, he has had severe issues with his command and overall ability to retire batters, especially when falling behind early in the count.
In addition to the Dodgers just being the far better club in Sunday’s matchup, they have an overwhelming starting-pitching advantage and should tear up an inexperienced starter who has found vast difficulty generating outs without allowing contact at the plate given his lack of punch-out prowess on the mound.
In a game I expect Los Angeles to dominate, I will be looking to back the Dodgers on their runline (-1.5) ahead of Sunday’s National League showdown.
Given Sproat’s likely difficulty facing a lineup of this caliber, I will be looking to target a Dodgers’ left-handed hitter in a player-prop market, as Milwaukee's youngster has fared far worse versus lefties.
That said, I love the matchup for Freddie Freeman on Sunday afternoon as a left-handed slugger who should have far more value in prop markets compared to baseball’s biggest star, Shohei Ohtani – who also bats on the left side of the plate.
While Freeman has gotten off to a far worse start in 2026 than in years past, the Dodgers’ first baseman (1B) has a hitter’s profile that perfectly encompasses Sproat’s biggest weaknesses on the mound.
I will be looking to back Freeman to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark on Sunday afternoon in a favorable matchup that should certainly result in Los Angeles very frequently having runners on the base paths.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line | Freddie Freeman o1.5 HRR
Braves vs Nationals Picks
The Braves and Nationals will square off on Sunday afternoon at Truist Park in Atlanta in an NL East divisional clash featuring two red-hot lineups in what surely sets up to be one of the best matchups on the entire slate.
Braves’ left-hander Martin Perez will take the mound for Atlanta, while the Nationals will send out 30-year-old starter Foster Griffin in what will be a “lefty versus lefty” pitching duel on Sunday.
While both left-handers are in decent form heading into this contest, it’s the Braves’ Martin Perez who is off to a far superior start to his 2026 campaign thus far.
In his first ten starts of the season, the Braves’ veteran has recorded an exceptional 2.85 ERA to go along with a 1.00 WHIP on the bump, with the Venezuelan having allowed 13 earned runs (ER) across 41 frames pitched in 2026.
After a rather impressive start to his 2025 season with the White Sox, Perez was unfortunately forced to hit the shelf for over four months after having suffered a left flexor tendon strain in his elbow following 11 starts in Chicago.
Though it took some extensive rehabbing, the first-year Brave is picking up right where he left off last season and is in phenomenal form on the mound prior to facing a young, much-improved 2026 Nationals’ lineup.
On the other hand, Nationals’ lefty Foster Griffin has not had as much success thus far compared to his Sunday pitching counterpart.
Washington’s left-hander has recorded a 4.02 ERA across his first ten outings in 2026 and has a date with arguably baseball’s best offensive lineup in the Braves.
Despite possibly losing Ronald Acuña Jr to the IL for the second time this season with the Braves’ superstar slugger now dealing with a thumb injury, Atlanta is an offense juggernaut even without its star player.
In the first week of the season, I hopped on the Braves to win the 2026 World Series in the futures market.
Given that Griffin is not currently in the best form on the mound, the Nats’ lefty may have his work cut out for him on Sunday afternoon, having to throw against a lineup boasting incredible hard-contact and versatility from top-to-bottom.
In a Sunday matchup where the Braves hold advantages all over the diamond, I feel very confident backing Atlanta on the moneyline ahead of this divisional clash.
Pick: Braves ML
Athletics vs Padres Picks
The Padres will host the Athletics on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game set at Petco Park in San Diego.
Right-hander Michael King will take the mound for the Friars, with 28-year-old lefty Jacob Lopez expected to be on the bump for the visiting Athletics.
Despite showing some signs of promise towards the end of last season with the Athletics’ lefty having barely missed a sub-4 ERA to conclude his 2025 campaign, Lopez has been unable to replicate his former successes yet this season.
Across Lopez’s first ten outings in 2026, the Athletics’ left-hander has recorded a whopping 6.14 ERA to go along with an equally poor 1.80 WHIP thus far.
For a ball club that appears to be trending in the right direction thanks to its sizable young talent within both its lineup and pitching staff, Lopez has performed far worse than what is to be expected from a starter in their rotation.
On the other hand, the Padres’ 30-year-old right-hander is having a phenomenal 2026 campaign thus far, as King currently ranks inside the top-10 in baseball with an impressive 2.31 ERA over his first ten starts of the season.
For a World Series contender who will most definitely need elite arms in the postseason, the Friars have one of the most consistent starting pitchers in all of baseball over the last five years.
Aside from a rocky Major League debut with the Yankees in 2020, King has recorded an ERA less than 3.55 in each of his last six seasons with the Padres, with the righty having concluded four of those years with an ERA below 3.
King has also boasted an extremely impressive 1.14 WHIP on average across his seven seasons pitching in the Big Leagues.
In an interleague clash in which the home Friars have a massive advantage in the pitching department, I feel great backing the Padres on their first-five (F5) moneyline as I expect King to build upon his elite 2026 form.
I will also be looking to take advantage of the Padres' favorable edge in Sunday’s contest by backing their 27-year-old superstar, Fernando Tatis Jr., to find success at the plate versus Lopez.
Despite the Dominican being in the worst slump of his entire career, San Diego’s slugger is beyond due to find his rhythm at the plate and gets a very ideal matchup on Sunday afternoon versus a struggling left-handed pitcher who is very susceptible to allowing heavy contact to righties.
While Lopez’s four-seam fastball is quite effective versus lefties, he has consistently given up a disproportionately high hard-hit rate to right-handed power hitters.
That said, I favor backing Fernando to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark in a game I expect the Friars to have runners on the basepaths quite frequently.
Pick: Padres F5 ML | Fernando Tatis o1.5 HRR
Ryan Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, May 24
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Pirates vs Blue Jays — NRFI
- Rays vs Yankees — NRFI
- Guardians vs Phillies — Guardians to Score First, Jose Ramirez o1.5 HRR
- Cardinals vs Reds — Sal Stewart o1.5 HRR, Stewart o0.5 Home Runs
- Mariners vs Royals — Mariners ML
- Dodgers vs Brewers — Dodgers Run Line, Freddie Freeman o1.5 HRR
- Braves vs Nationals — Braves ML
- Athletics vs Padres — Padres F5 ML, Fernando Tatis o1.5 HRR
