While all eyes remain on the World Cup group stage, we must not forget that there’s still baseball all day!
Who isn’t excited about the thought of split screening Uzbekistan vs. Colombia and the Pirates vs. Athletics tonight?! Just me? Fine…
Last week, in my return piece for Action Network, we were able to cash two home run props (2-1, +0.7u). This week, we will return to a familiar fade, as well as target the aforementioned Athletics game.
Can we expect the Yankees to score in double digits yet again tonight? Can the Red Sox torch Max Scherzer as he tries to bounce back?
Read on for my top 3 MLB player props today.
MLB Player Props
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:45 PM | |
| 7:05 PM | |
| 9:40 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox MLB Player Prop
Wilyer Abreu
Home Run (+390)
Another week, another Max Scherzer fade! Bryce Harper clobbered the first pitch he saw against Scherzer to get us over the finish line last Wednesday as Scherzer threw 3 1/3 innings of five-run ball. He allowed two home runs in the loss.
As I’ve mentioned before, retirement is the smartest option for Scherzer. But he’s a psychopath who wants to prove something in his age 41 season. And I’ll gladly fade him all season.
Scherzer has a career-worst barrel rate allowed (13.2%) and ranks in the bottom 5% of all qualified pitchers in strikeouts (13.7%), xERA (6.14) and xSLG (.519). He throws a fastball nearly half the time and is a fly ball machine.
That means home runs should continue to fly.
A player I am looking to buy is Wilyer Abreu, who has been a bit unlucky in the early going. His xSLG (.461) is much higher than actual (.429) and, despite a similar barrel rate (11.3%) to last season, he has just eight home runs.
He’s also been hitting the ball harder and in the air of late, as you can see below:
Just over 30% of all hits Scherzer has allowed to left-handed hitters have left the park, and Abreu is in a perfect buy-low spot on this Wednesday evening.
Pick: Wilyer Abreu Home Run (+390)
White Sox vs. Yankees MLB Player Prop
Paul Goldschmidt
Home Run (+475)
There are few hitters having as good a June as Paul Goldschmidt.
The 38-year-old has hit .380 with four home runs and 14 RBIs. He has a hit in eight straight, providing a much-needed veteran presence with Aaron Judge sidelined.
Goldy has really turned the clocks back. His barrel rate (11.7%) is its highest since 2023, and his xSLG (.498) ranks in the 87th percentile of all qualified hitters. He has also been New York’s southpaw killer, hitting .419 with five home runs and a 1.288 OPS across 62 at-bats.
Who do the Yankees face tonight, you may ask? A left-hander in Anthony Kay!
Kay has escaped negative regression for some time now. He has a 5.64 xERA – over a run higher than actual – and continues to battle issues with hard-hit rate allowed (career-worst 41.6%) and barrels.
When you can’t punch out the opposition and rely on forcing soft contact, it’s often a recipe for disaster. Kay tries to mask his issues behind a six-pitch arsenal, but he is often tagged at least once a game – and should be more.
Right-handed hitters are hitting .301 with an .888 OPS against Kay this season. Just over 15% of all hits leave the park.
I’m going to continue to back the hot bat of Goldschmidt here, trusting him against a southpaw due for negative regression.
Pick: Paul Goldschmidt Home Run (+475)
Pirates vs. Athletics MLB Player Prop
Ryan O'Hearn
Home Run (+450)
Trying to pick this game was a tough one. Brandon Lowe’s odds are no longer above 3-to-1, where they sat earlier this series, and I trust Braxton Ashcraft – even in a little-league park.
But the ball should FLY once again on this Wednesday night. BallparkPal projects a +39% increase in home runs and we get the soft-tossing Aaron Civale on the mound. That spells trouble for the Athletics.
As you know from my last two articles, I don’t have many nice things to say about Max Scherzer. Well, the list may be even shorter for Civale.
The right-hander ranks in the bottom 10% of all qualified pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed (47.9%, a career low), strikeout rate (15.9%) and ground-ball rate allowed (29.3%). By all accounts, the 31-year-old is having the worst season of his career, even if, at first glance, it doesn’t seem that way.
Civale has somehow managed to post a 4.20 ERA, nearly a run higher than expected (5.12). But when he takes the mound, you look to bet home runs (1.94 HR/9).
So that’s where Ryan O’Hearn comes into play.
Civale has really struggled against left-handed hitting (.305 average, .910 OPS) and O’Hearn is priced a bit too high here knowing the surrounding factors: ballpark, weather, and pitcher, to name a few.
O’Hearn has crushed right-handed pitching this season, with eight home runs and a .290 average. Despite a career-low barrel rate, O’Hearn has his highest hard-hit rate since 2023.
But at +450, I’ll happily bet a lefty with pop against the home-run prone Civale in Sacramento.
Pick: Ryan O’Hearn Home Run (+450)
