MLB Playoff Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Game 4 of NLDS Dodgers vs Padres

MLB Playoff Odds, Picks, Best Bets for Game 4 of NLDS Dodgers vs Padres article feature image

Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: The Padres celebrate their Game 3 victory.

Dodgers vs. Padres Game 4 Odds

Dodgers Odds-125
Padres Odds+105
Time9:37 p.m. ET
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The San Diego Padres are one win away from ending the Los Angeles Dodgers' 111-win season way earlier than they or most people expected.

After taking Game 3 on Friday night in San Diego, the Friars have now won two straight against a team that dominated them in the regular season, and they have their red-hot ace on the mound with a chance to clinch a spot in the NLCS.

That's Joe Musgrove, who dominated the Mets in a winner-take-all game in the Wild Card Round. The Dodgers, meanwhile, are pinning their season on the left arm of Tyler Anderson.

Our analysts have a prop and a side they're eyeing in this one. Here are our best bets from NLDS Game 4 between the Dodgers and Padres.

MLB Odds & Picks

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Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Padres +106

Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)

Odds via DraftKings

Doug Ziefel: While Joe Musgrove got a ton of praise for his performance against the Mets in the Wild Card Round, he is due to regress.

Musgrove’s FIP and xERA are significantly higher than his season ERA. On top of that, the Dodgers are one of the few teams that put runs up against him, as they totaled seven earned runs in 17 innings this season. One man that was right in the middle of the run production was Freddie Freeman.

Freeman has hit Musgrove very well throughout his career, as the two have matched up 21 times. Thus far, Freeman is hitting .381 with two extra base hits. However, he has not struck out much, and his quality of contact over the 18 balls put in play. His xBA is .364, and his xSLG is .528.

With Musgrove due to get hit around a bit, I like Freeman’s chances of putting one in the gap or even collecting multiple hits tonight.

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Padres +106

Odds via FanDuel

Jules Posner: Musgrove has already delivered a signature moment this postseason when he dominated the New YorkMets in the Wild Card Round. Saturday night, he will have the opportunity to add to his legend if he can guide the Padres to victory.

Musgrove had mixed results against the Dodgers this season, but he seemed to have an extra gear in his series-clinching effort in New York. Now he will be able to pitch against a division rival in his home ballpark in his hometown.

While it is tempting to let the narrative get in the way of analysis, Musgrove’s seven innings of one-hit ball spoke volumes about what he’s capable of.

The Padres’ offense has only been around average at home against LHP down the stretch, but their knack for timely hits this postseason is another example of what is occurring on the field bucking overall trends.

The Dodgers do hold statistical edges both offensively and in the pitching department in this matchup. However, the Padres only need to win one more game and all of the pressure is on the Dodgers.

Following another dominant regular season, the Dodgers have a very good chance of falling short of their ultimate goal yet again. The Padres’ moneyline is at +105 presently. They have the starting pitching edge on Saturday and this line should be more of a coinflip than it is currently.

Take the Padres to close out the Dodgers and advance to the NLCS.

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