Today's MLB slate is small as there are just 5 games on the schedule for Thursday, July 24.
However, there's still betting value to be found and our experts have done exactly that. In addition to two expert picks, we also have a system prediction. So, be sure to continue reading as today's MLB best bets are below.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
  | 7:45 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Derek Carty's Blue Jays vs Tigers Pick: Value on Vlad Jr.
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s home runs prop. THE BAT X is projecting 0.18 home runs, with a 16% chance that he records at least one home run. If you can get the over at +700 or better, there is great value here.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 1+ Home Run (+700)
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Sean Zerillo's Blue Jays vs Tigers Best Bet: Back Toronto
By Sean Zerillo
The Detroit Tigers have lost five of six games since the All-Star break and scored just eight runs across those six contests — only winning the Sunday Night Baseball game (2-1) started by Tarik Skubal.
The Tigers are 15-5 in games started by Skubal this year, and just 45-38 (an 87-win full-season pace) across all other contests. Detroit's offense has been in a massive rut since its most productive left-handed hitter, Kerry Carpenter (who is currently on a rehab assignment), injured his hamstring on June 29. They rank 27th with an 88 wRC+ over that span, and are 28th (63 wRC+) against left-handed pitching.
Eric Lauer (3.06 xERA, 3.82 xFIP, 20.4% K-BB%) has potentially been Toronto's most effective starting pitcher, and I rate him as the slightly better arm than Reese Olson (3.66 xERA, 3.77 xFIP, 14%.7% K-BB%).
Moreover, I prefer the Blue Jays' red-hot lineup (107 wRC+, 9th vs. RHP; 130, 1st over the past 30 days) to a struggling Tigers offense. And I give Toronto a bullpen edge (4th in xFIP, 2nd in K-BB%; Detroit 12th/20th, respectively.)
I project the Blue Jays as slight road favorites (projected 50.2%, -101 implied) and would bet their moneyline to +107 — just under a 2% edge compared to my projected line.
Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline (-108)
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Bet Labs' Padres vs Cardinals Best Bet: Target 1st 5 Innings
By Bet Labs
This MLB system, titled "Low Total Unders with Line Movement (F5)," focuses on early game environments in which oddsmakers and sharp bettors anticipate limited scoring.
The foundation starts with a low closing total — between 3.5 and 6.5 — indicating a strong pitcher’s duel or poor hitting conditions. If the full-game total has moved down between half a run or more from open to close, it signals smart money pushing the market toward the under. The model further refines this edge by requiring the juice on the under to remain within a sharp range, typically between -149 and -120, avoiding inflated pricing that could distort value.
Games played in modest wind conditions — between 4-9 mph — are included, as they often suppress offense without triggering dramatic public reaction. By isolating games across the past three seasons and targeting first-half unders in tightly lined, downward-trending markets, this system captures value where the market signals defensive control without overreaction.
This season, this system is 81-41 (66%) and has generated a 17% ROI.
Pick: 1st 5 Innings Under 4.5 (-130)
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