Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, September 11.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Nationals vs. Marlins, Royals vs. Guardians, and Mets vs. Phillies. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Thursday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Thursday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Thursday, September 11
Nationals vs. Marlins
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 8 -110o / -110u | +105 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 8 -110o / -110u | -125 |
LHP MacKenzie Gore (WSN) vs. LHP Ryan Weathers (MIA)
Starting pitcher Ryan Weathers returns from the IL for the Fish on Thursday following a lat strain. However, he only tossed 68 pitches across 4 1/3 innings in his final Minor League rehab assignment.
I expect around 80 pitches for Weathers on Thursday and would bet the Under on his outs prop at 15 or better when the prop markets open.
Weathers has solid indicators (3.24 xERA, 3.30 botERA, 4.24 xFIP, 14.7% K-BB) and good pitch modeling numbers (108 Stuff+, 110 Pitching+) behind a solid three-pitch mix (fastball, changeup, slider).
However, Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore has the better projections despite worse pitch modeling numbers (98 Stuff+, 4.29 botERA), likely because of his better strikeout minus walk rate (18.9%).
Gore has struggled since the All-Star Break (7.54 ERA, 4.94 xFIP, 8.7% K-BB), but his velocity and stuff numbers remain steady, and he’s even improved upon his command over the past month.
Miami’s bats have struggled since Kyle Stowers went down on August 15th, posting an 88 wRC+ (26th among MLB lineups during the stretch). At the same time, Miami’s bullpen has been struggling.
I project the Nationals ML at -103.
Pick: Nationals ML (+110 | Play to +105)
Royals vs. Guardians
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +115 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +165 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -135 |
RHP Stephen Kolek (KCR) vs. RHP Gavin Williams (CLE)
Thursday marks the 13th and final meeting between these AL Central rivals. The two have averaged exactly eight runs per game across the 12 head-to-head meetings.
We have a pitcher-friendly umpire behind the plate on Thursday in Phil Cuzzi (326-256-29 to the Under, 56% win rate, +8% ROI).
It’s the third start for Royals pitcher Stephen Kolek, but he’s shown a new pitch mix since getting traded to Kansas City, throwing more four-seamers and sliders in place of sinkers and cutters, which has helped improve his command.
Guardians starter Gavin Williams has similar indicaors to Kolek with slightly better floor projections.
The Royals have the offensive edge, considering the Guardians rank dead last among MLB lineups in wRC+ against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days (69).
The Royals also have the bullpen edge, given they rank as a top-10 unit over the past 30 days by xFIP and strikeout minus walk rate.
The Royals also project as the better defensive team in my model.
I project the Royals ML at +105 and 7.19 runs for the total.
Pick: Royals ML (+120 | Play to +114) & Under 8 (-115 | Play to 7.5 -102)
Mets vs. Phillies
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 8 -120o / 100u | +120 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -120o / 100u | -145 |
LHP David Peterson (NYM) vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo (PHI)
Thursday marks the 13th and final meeting between these two NL East rivals. These two teams have averaged 9.75 runs per game across their 12 meetings, primarily due to bullpen familiarity.
The first-half over is 12-15-2 in head-to-head meetings between these two over the past two seasons (including playoffs), yet the full-game over is 18-11 in that sample.
That said, there’s plenty of starting pitching familiarity between these two as well.
Jesus Luzardo will make his third start against the Mets this season, while David Peterson will make his third start against the Phillies this season.
These are two great offenses, but the Mets are in their better split, as they lead MLB in wRC+ against left-handed pitching over the past month (160).
I project the Mets ML at +104 and 8.94 runs for the total.
Pick: Mets ML (+125 | Play to +112) & Over 8 (-120 | Play to 8.5 -108)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, September 11
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- Pirates ML (+130 | Play to +124)
- Nationals ML (+110 | Play to +105)
- Royals ML (+120 | Play to +114)
- Mets ML (+125 | Play to +112)
- Mets ML (+125 | Play to +112)
- Angels ML (+155 | Play to +140)
- Tigers vs. Yankees Under 8.5 (+100 | Play to -108)
- Royals vs. Guardians Under 8 (-115 | Play to 7.5 -102)
- Mets vs. Phillies Over 8 (-120 | Play to 8.5 -108)
