MLB Predictions Today | Odds, Expert Picks, Best Bets for Giants vs Dodgers, White Sox vs Mariners (Sunday, June 18)
Pictured: Julio Rodriguez celebrates with Jarred Kelenic. (Photo by Alika Jenner/Getty Images)
- There are 16 MLB games and plenty of betting value on Sunday, June 18.
- Our experts have identified a pair of Father's Day best bets and provide their analysis below.
- Continue reading for Sunday's MLB best bets.
There's never a bad time to spend all afternoon watching baseball and that includes Father's Day. There are 16 games on the Sunday, June 18 slate, which means there are numerous betting opportunities.
Our MLB betting experts have looked over the matchups and found actionable opportunities in a pair of west coast contests — Dodgers vs. Giants and White Sox vs. Mariners. The experts are targeting a total and a moneyline, so be sure to stick around for the picks.
Our MLB best bets for Sunday, June 18 are below.
Sunday's MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
|Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.|
Giants vs. Dodgers
There are certain pitchers who confound advanced projection systems.
Matt Cain was a great example. A key part of the Giants' World Series winning teams from 2010-2014, Cain had a Deserved Run Average (DRA) higher than his ERA every single year from his debut in 2005 through 2012. Cain never missed many bats, but excelled at inducing weak contact and did so for more than 2,000 career innings and seven seasons where he was worth 3 WARP or more.
Tony Gonsolin isn't quite there yet. He's only thrown a bit over 300 innings in parts of five seasons, but continues to confound projections. There's still enough time for that to turn around, but I'm done waiting for it to happen. Gonsolin is what he is until proven otherwise, and that's an above-average starting pitcher.
Gonsolin faces Cain's former team, the Giants, on Sunday afternoon, and I'm expecting more of the same. The Giants are a bottom-10 offense by virtually any metric, and it's difficult to imagine that, if regression is truly coming for Gonsolin, it happens today.
On the other side, Logan Webb has put together a sterling season, inducing a high amount of grounders and missing a fair amount of bats. He's also cut his walk rate by 1.8% from his career average.
The Dodgers' bullpen is a mess right now and the Giants don't inspire a whole lot of confidence on the back-end, either. Thus, I'm focused on the F5 total. I'll nibble at the full game under 8.5, but love the F5 under 4.5 (at -115) or better. Decrease your risk if the number drops to 4.
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White Sox vs. Mariners
By William Boor
This is an much a Lance Lynn fade as it is a bet on the Seattle Mariners.
Lynn, who has yielded 17 earned runs over his past three starts (14 innings), has struggled all season. His 5.44 xERA is more than a full run lower than his 6.75 ERA, but neither number is impressing anyone. The 36-year-old right hander ranks in the 31st percentile in hard-hit rate and also ranks in the 22nd percentile or worse in xBA, xSLG and barrel rate.
Lynn is giving up a bunch of hard contact and a Mariners team that's coming off a tough loss and averaging just under 4.5 runs per game at home should find success.
Bryce Miller will get the start for Seattle against a White Sox offense that ranks 24th in baseball in runs per game. Miller got shelled in back-to-back starts against the Yankees and Rangers, but seemingly got back on track in his most recent outing as he gave up just one run on one hit over six innings.
Miller doesn't miss a ton of bats, but ranks in the 94th percentile in walk rate and the 99th percentile in fastball spin. He does a decent job limiting hard contact as he ranks in the 58th percentile in hard-hit rate and should be able to stifle Chicago on Sunday afternoon.
Lynn hasn't thrown well this season and until he does, I'm going to continue to fade him. Back Seattle on Sunday afternoon.