Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Tuesday, September 23.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Tuesday, I preview Marlins vs. Phillies, White Sox vs. Yankees, Red Sox vs. Blue Jays, and Royals vs. Angels. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Tuesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Tuesday, September 23
Marlins vs. Phillies
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 8 -105o / -115u | +185 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 8 -105o / -115u | -220 |
RHP Edward Cabrera (MIA) vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez (PHI)
Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez is significantly better at home, posting a career 2.82 xFIP at Citizens Bank compared to a 3.54 xFIP on the road.
Both offenses are in their superior split, as both lineups rank in the top 10 among MLB teams against Tuesday’s opposing side over the past month (Phillies with a 127 wRC+ against RHPs, Marlins with a 114 wRC+ against LHPs).
I much prefer the Phillies’ bullpen, which ranks top-10 among MLB relief units since the trade deadline in xFIP, strikeout minus walk rate, and Pitching+.
The season-long defensive metrics prefer Miami, but my model projects the Phillies as the better defensive club.
I project the Phillies ML at -256.
Pick: Phillies ML (-205 | Bet to -233)
White Sox vs. Yankees
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 9 100o / -120u | +210 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 9 100o / -120u | -250 |
RHP Shane Smith (CWS) vs. RHP Luis Gil (NYY)
Rule 5 pick Shane Smith ended up as the White Sox’s most effective pitcher in 2025 (4.22 xERA, 13.1% K-BB, 95 Pitching+, 4.59 botERA). Projections view him as a No. 4 starter.
Although he has an elite changeup (101 Stuff+, .317 xwOBA allowed), he’s become more four-seam fastball- and sinker-reliant in recent starts.
Chicago’s offense has impressed since the deadline, posting a 103 wRC+, and Luis Gil is a volatile pitcher (5.10 xERA, 3.5% K-BB, 98 Pitching+, 4.30 botERA).
I project the White Sox ML at +176.
Pick: White Sox ML (+205 | Bet to +190)
Red Sox vs. Blue Jays
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8 -105o / -115u | +140 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -105o / -115u | -165 |
RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) vs. RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR)
The Jays have a magic number of four to clinch the AL East, while the Red Sox have a magic number of five to make the postseason.
Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman is an ace (3.69 xERA, 17.9% K-BB, 102 Pitching+, 3.36 botERA), while Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito is a fringe starter (4.99 xERA, 11.2% K-BB, 92 Pitching+, 4.81 botERA).
The Blue Jays also boast a much better offense and defense.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (-152 | Play to -180)
Royals vs. Angels
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +105 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -155 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -125 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +130 |
LHP Cole Ragans (KCR) vs. LHP Sam Aldegheri (LAA)
The Royals need a win on Tuesday to stay alive in the postseason race (in addition to winning out), but they also need Houston and Cleveland to lose out to make the postseason. Considering the 9:38 p.m. start time, Kansas City might know its fate by the start of the game.
Royals starter Cole Ragans only tossed 62 pitches in his return, but his velocity (95.7 MPH on average) and stuff (120 Stuff+) looked excellent. The quality of his arsenal appears to be better than pre-injury levels.
Angels starter Sam Aldegheri (7.51 xERA, 8.29 xFIP, -4% K-BB, 88 Stuff+, 73 PItching+, 6.58 botERA), and the bullpen is bad.
The Royals have the better bullpen, defense and lineup, and I project the Royals ML at -176.
Pick: Royals ML (-146 | Play to -160)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Tuesday, September 23
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- Phillies ML (-205 | Play to -233)
- White Sox ML (+205 | Play to +190)
- Blue Jays ML (-152 | Play to -180)
- Twins ML (+120 | Play to +111)
- Royals ML (-146 | Play to -160)
- Athletics ML (-110 | Play to -120)
- Rays vs. Orioles Over 8.5 (-120 | Play to 9 -110)
- Pirates vs. Reds Over 8.5 (+100 | Play to -120)
- Nationals vs. Braves Over 9 (-105 | Play to -118)
- Twins vs. Rangers Under 8.5 (-110 | Play to -117)
- Brewers vs. Padres Under 8.5 (-102 | Play to -118)
