Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, June 18.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis.
For Wednesday, I preview Rockies vs. Nationals, Twins vs. Reds, Orioles vs. Rays and Cardinals vs. White Sox. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, June 18
Rockies vs. Nationals
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 9 -121o / 100u | +140 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +119 | 9 -121o / 100u | -171 |
German Marquez vs. Mitchell Parker
It'll feel like 94 degrees with seven-to-eight mph winds blowing out to right field in D.C. on Wednesday. However, it'll be less humid than Tuesday (~70% vs. 97%).
There were 11 flyouts and nine home runs on Tuesday. In fact, the Rockies tied their franchise record with seven homers in a game, and the teams combined for 16 runs and left 16 runners on base.
Fast forward to today, and German Marquez (4.81 xERA, 4.70 xFIP, 8.2% K-BB%, 5.32 botERA, 88 Pitching+) and Mitchell Parker (4.94 xERA, 5.04 xFIP, 5.9% K-BB%, 4.69 botERA, 93 Pitching+) each have implosion potential.
The Colorado offense is heating up, as it has a 103 wRC+ (14th) in the last two weeks. Hunter Goodman (121 wRC+, 14 HR) and Jordan Beck (104 wRC+, 8 HR, 8 SB) have officially broken out.
Another thing helping this bet out is that both bullpens are awful. The Rockies are 25th in xFIP, while the Nationals are 29th in the same category. They're also 30th and 29th, respectively, in K-BB%, and they flip flop to 29th/30th over the last 30 days.
They're both bad defensively, too. The Nationals are 26th (-27) in Defensive Runs Saved and 29th in Outs Above Average, while the Rockies are 30th (-41) in DRS and 23rd in OAA.
I'm projecting 9.89 runs vs. 9.25 on a weather-neutral day.
Pick: Over 9 (Play to 9.5)
Twins vs. Reds
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9 -102o / -118u | -105 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9 -102o / -118u | -115 |
Bailey Ober vs. Nick Lodolo
Great American Ballpark (+28% home runs over the last three seasons) is a nightmare venue for Bailey Ober (1.59 HR/9 in 2025; 1.42 career).
Ober (4.38 xERA, 11.1% K-BB%, 4.85 xFIP, 4.31 botERA, 99 Pitching) also is a reduced version compared to last year (2024: 3.22 xERA, 3.83 xFIP, 20.9% K-BB%, 104 Pitching+, 3.62 botERA), as his K-BB% has essentially halved vs. the last two campaigns (20.6%).
His velocity is down from 91.7 to 90.4, too.
The Cincinnati offense is much better vs. right-handed pitching (106 wRC+, 11th) than left-handed pitching (74 wRC+, 24th). Over the last 30 days, the offense has a 119 wRC+ vs. right-handers (fourth) and a 64 wRC+ vs. left-handers (25th).
On the flip side, Nick Lodolo has seen a four-year decline in strikeout percentage (from 29.7% to 21.3%), and although his BB% is a career-best 4.9% (7.1% career), his CSW% is easily a career-worst (25.5% vs. 28.8% career; previous low 29.2%), indicating further K-BB% decline.
I'm projecting 9.49 runs.
Pick: Over 9 (+100 to -110)
Orioles vs. Rays
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 9.5 100o / -130u | +115 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9.5 100o / -130u | -135 |
Trevor Rogers vs. Taj Bradley
This matchup has more hitter-friendly weather on Wednesday, as it'll be 90 degrees (feels like 97) with five mph winds blowing out.
That makes the projected total 9.55, so there's no value at the number.
The starting pitching is comparable in this matchup, but Taj Bradley has unperformed vs. his xERA (4.35 ERA, 3.49 xERA; 4.11 and 4.14 last season) and has over-performed vs. his pitch modeling metrics (99 Stuff+, 5.11 botERA; 109, 4.27 last season).
His 11.5% K-BB% is nearly half of what his number has been over his last two seasons (19.6%, 18.5%).
Meanwhile, Trevor Rogers' velocity is back in line with his career average (93.9) after a disappointing 2024 campaign (averaged 91.9 mph; 5.18 xERA, 4.09 botERA). He's less home-run prone than Bradley (career 0.91 HR/9 vs. 1.54 for Taj).
I give the slight edge to the Orioles' bullpen, too, as it has a projected model weighted ERA of 3.67 vs. 3.80 for the Rays. Over the last 14 days, Baltimore's bullpen is first in xFIP and K-BB%.
I'm projecting Baltimore at -106 on the moneyline, so +115 at BetMGM is great value.
Pick: Orioles ML +115
Cardinals vs. White Sox
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
Sonny Gray vs. Sean Burke
Rain is in the forecast — with high humidity and strong winds (13-14 mph) out to left field — for this duel between the Cardinals and the White Sox.
A potential rain delay could knock these starting pitchers out prematurely.
I'll start with Sean Burke, who's underwhelmed this season (5.44 xERA, 5.20 xFIP, 4.42 botERA, 6.8% K-BB%). His projections have become more pessimistic (projected FIP range of 4.75-5.47), too.
Meanwhile, Sonny Gray has recorded a quality start in nine of 14 outings, but his 4.01 xERA is his highest since 2018. Gray is posting the lowest ground-ball percentage of his career (38.3%), but his HR/9 of 1.14 and 1.13 over the last two seasons compares unfavorably to his 0.88 career mark.
We have one average and one awful bullpen in this matchup, as St. Louis is 18th in xFIP and 25th in K-BB%, while Chicago is 28th and 30th, respectively. Over the last 30 days, both are bottom-10 bullpens.
The White Sox are tragic defensively (25th in DRS, 26th by OAA). Also, DRS hates STL, too (18th), but it ranks first by OAA and projects as above-average in my model.
I'm projecting 9.07 runs, so take the over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (+100 to -110)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, June 18
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- Blue Jays ML (-104 to -113)
- Orioles ML (+115 to +102)
- Rangers ML (+116 to +110)
- Guardians ML (+130 to +120)
- Athletics ML (+140 to +125)
- Rockies-Nationals Over 9 (-115) to 9.5 (-110)
- Angels-Yankees Over 9.5 (-104) to 10 (+100)
- Twins-Reds Over 9 (+100) to 9.5 (+100)
- Cardinals-White Sox Over 8.5 (+100) to -110
- Brewers-Cubs Under 8 (-115) to 7.5 (+100)
