Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, June 25.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Pirates vs. Brewers, Athletics vs. Tigers, Blue Jays vs. Guardians, and Phillies vs. Astros. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, June 25
Pirates vs. Brewers
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +170 | 7 -102o / -118u | -105 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 7 -102o / -118u | -115 |
RHP Paul Skenes (PIT) vs. RHP Jacob Misiorowski (MIL)
This is arguably the pitching matchup of the year.
Jacob Misiorowski threw 10 no-hit innings to start his MLB career. His stuff is legitimately on par with Paul Skenes — both will generate high strikeout rates and weak contact.
Misiorowski might have the stuff (128 Stuff+, 135 Stuff+ fastball, 114 Stuff+ slider, 142 Stuff+ curveball, 3.20 botERA), but his command and control are shaky (88 Location+, 14% walk rate in the minors).
Ultimately, I’m bullish on the rookie and think he pitches toward a low-three ERA.
Skenes’ earned run indicators (2.46 xERA, 3.24 botERA) and advanced pitching model metrics (108 Stuff+, 110 Location+, 115 Pitching+) are as good as ever. But, he’s seen notable declines in his strikeout minus walk rate and CSW rate, paired with an increase in his hard-hit and walk rates.
I project the Pirates F5 ML at -114, but I project the Brewers full-game ML at -112 behind a much better bullpen. Milwaukee leads MLB in reliever Stuff+ (109), Pitching+ (111) and botERA (3.39) over the past month while ranking fifth in xFIP and seventh in strikeout minus walk rate.
Pick: Brewers ML (+106, Play to -103)
Athletics vs. Tigers
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +140 |
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -170 |
LHP Jacob Lopez (ATH) vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (DET)
Jack Flaherty has imploded in consecutive starts against Cincinnati and Tampa Bay (7 IP, 11 H, 15 R, 8 BB, 8 K, 4 HR).
He has a history of arm issues (bursitis), and he might be starting to wear down, so the Tigers are trying to keep him on six days' rest.
| Flaherty Time Frame | xFIP | Pitching+ | botERA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 1H | 2.53 | 109 | 3.87 |
| 2024 2H | 3.65 | 99 | 4.77 |
| 2025 Through May | 3.37 | 100 | 4.83 |
| 2025 Through June | 4.70 | 90 | 5.19 |
Jacob Lopez is rather uninspiring (3.70 xERA, 20% K-BB, 91 Stuff+, 4.89 botERA). He’s got a solid slider (99 Stuff+), but also high fly ball and home run rates.
Still, the A’s are dangerous, especially if Denzel Clarke starts to heat up — he hit two homers in Tuesday’s game. He’s the best defender in the sport, racking up insane DRS (+8) and OAA (+10) numbers despite limited playing time (213 innings).
I project the A’s F5 ML at +115 and their full-game ML at +125. I also project 8.95 runs for the game.
Pick: Athletics ML (+145, Play to +135) | Athletics F5 ML (+135, Play to +125) | Over 8.5 (-104, Play to -110)
Blue Jays vs. Guardians
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +154 | 8 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -190 | 8 -115o / -105u | -110 |
RHP Max Scherzer (TOR) vs. RHP Gavin Williams (CLE)
Max Scherzer returns for his first start since his thumb and grip injury, which led to lat soreness due to poor mechanics. He had two cortisone injections before a pair of rehab outings (8 ⅔ IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 12 K). But he’s 39 with a history of upper-body injury issues, and cortisone is only temporary relief from underlying injuries — I suspect he’ll be shut down in the second half.
Scherzer made just nine starts last season, but he continued a three-year decline in Stuff+ and strikeout minus walk rate, combined with an increase in xERA. His velocity continues to drop, and he’s developed a home run issue.
Even worse, the Jays need length from him on Wednesday after deploying five relievers on Tuesday — plus, their next off day isn’t until July 10th.
Meanwhile, Gavin Williams has been a luckbox (3.58 ERA, 4.37 xERA, 4.13 xFIP, 4.66 botERA) behind a low BABIP (.284) and high strand rate (79%). He’s surely due for regression, especially if his four-seam fastball continues to get walloped (.309 xBA, .543 xSLG, .406 xwOBA).
The wind is blowing in toward home plate for this game, but it’s warm and humid out, so the run-scoring environment shouldn’t be too bad.
I project 8.74 runs for this matchup.
Pick: Over 8 (-115 | Play to 8.5 +100)
Phillies vs. Astros
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -150 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +125 |
RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs. LHP Colton Gordon (HOU)
Typically, I prefer to bet on the Astros when they’re facing a left-handed starting pitcher, given their extreme splits (131 wRC+ vs. LHP, 101 wRC+ vs. RHP). And it’s going to be tough to fade Zack Wheeler in a dome (2.36 xERA, 26.7% K-BB).
That said, I’m betting on Colton Gordon (3.53 xERA, 3.05 botERA, 18.8% K-BB), as I believe in his plus slider (116 Stuff+) and elite command (111 Location+, 3.2% walk rate), which should help him outperform projections.
The Astros are the better defensive team and boast the better bullpen, so while I project the Astros F5 ML at +165, I project their full-game ML at +118. I also project 6.88 runs for the game.
Pick: Astros ML (+140, Play to +130) | Under 7.5 (-105, Play to -115)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, June 25
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- Brewers ML (+106, Play to -103)
- Reds ML (+185, Play to +175)
- Cubs ML (-125, Play to -135)
- Astros ML (+140, Play to +130)
- Athletics ML (+145, Play to +135)
- Athletics F5 ML (+135, Play to +125)
- Athletics vs. Tigers Over 8.5 (-104, Play to -110)
- Blue Jays vs. Guardians Over 8 (-115, Play to 8.5 +100)
- Braves vs. Mets Under 9.5 (-115, Play to 9 -103)
- Phillies vs. Astros Under 7.5 (-105, Play to -115)
