Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Wednesday, October 1.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Wednesday, I preview Tigers vs. Guardians, Cubs vs. Padres, Red Sox vs. Yankees, and Reds vs. Dodgers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Wednesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Wednesday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Wednesday, October 1
Series Moneyline Corner
While I was able to forecast actionable edges in both the series moneyline and exact result markets before Tuesday's Game 1 matchups, I don't project value on any of the four updated series moneyline prices — or their correct score odds — before Wednesday's Game 2s.
Detroit moved from 54.5% (-120 implied) to 73.4% (-276 implied) — a near 19-point swing — after its Game 1 win. While you could either hedge or freeroll our Tigers series ticket (-110, up to -120) from before Game 1, the best available price on Cleveland is +270, which would be a -EV wager compared to my updated projection, so the best course of action is to ride out the Tigers tickets for the final two games.
The Red Sox gained the most ground (+31.8%) of any team on Tuesday, flipping their projection to advance from 34.6% (+189) before the playoffs to 66.4% (-198 implied) after their Game 1 upset in the Bronx. While I recommended a potential pre-series ticket on the Yankees to win 2-1 at +220, I currently align with the market on the updated series price (Red Sox -200, Yankees +175) as of Tuesday night.
Our Cubs' series ticket is in a good position, with Chicago gaining more than 20% in implied win probability after protecting home field in Game 1. And if you bet the recommended 2-0 sweep ticket at +275, you're in an optimal position for Wednesday. While I do show roughly a 2% edge on the Cubs series line (-360) at two books (DraftKings and Caesars), I'd rather bet their Game 2 moneyline (as discussed, below) at both a significantly cheaper pricetag, and a larger projected edge.
Lastly, the Dodgers moved closer to 90% favorites following their dominant Game 1 win over the Reds, and their odds reopened at -900, -950, and -1000 at these separate books. They remain as high as +250 at ESPNBET to win the NL Pennant, compared to public projections between 33.2% (+201 implied) from FanGraphs and 41.9% (+139 implied) from the BAT, with consensus odds of +174.
Unless the Reds win Game 2, or the Phillies win Game 1 of the NLDS behind Cris Sanchez, this is potentially your last call to get the Dodgers north of 2-1 to win the NL Pennant. If you have not already done so, bet Los Angeles to win the NL, down to +190.
If you already have a Dodgers NL ticket — as recommended in my playoff futures preview — I'm comfortable waiting to add a potential series ticket against the Phillies (to -110) in the NLDS, rather than loading up on their pennant odds.
Assuming the Dodgers sweep the Reds, I'll make their series line around -115 against the Phillies, favoring them in the final four games. I expect the winner of that series to advance to the World Series.
In the event the Dodgers sweep tomorrow, I'd take them to -105 against the Phillies before Game 1, but I would actively look to place a bigger bet if they fall behind a game in that series, which is highly probable given Sanchez's dominance at home.
Tigers vs. Guardians
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -210 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +175 | 6.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
Casey Mize vs. Tanner Bibee
The astonishing Wild Card series under trend continued on Tuesday — unders in the new format are now 18-5-2 (78.2%) since 2022, generating a profit of +$1,127 on a 45.1% ROI for a consistent $100 flat bettor.
While that's obviously a tiny sample size, managers are more readily able to air out their bullpens — with an off-day on Monday and up to two off-days before the divisional series to allow those pitchers to rest.
The games have gone under by an average margin of 1.56 runs per contest, and two of the five losses were by a hook.
The Guardians and Tigers have played in five of those 25 matchups combined, and all five have gone under the total.
Wednesday's weather is particularly pitcher-friendly, with cooler temperatures (67 degrees at first pitch) and 11-to-13 MPH winds blowing in from right field.
That wind direction could be more meaningful at Progressive Field than you may expect. As we discussed regularly last season, the Guardians made aesthetic changes to their right field concourse, removing shipping containers, which incidentally created a wind tunnel out to right field.
From 2022-2024, Progressive Field ranked 21st for left-handed power (-6%), but the wind tunnel bumped the park up to fifth (+16%) in 2024, and while the results normalized somewhat in 2025 (15th), unders went 16-7 with the wind blowing in from right field, winning by an average margin of one run per game.
I set Wednesday's Game 2 total at 6.17 runs, and I would bet Under 7 to -122 or 6.5 (-103). The total opened at 7 (-105) following Tuesday's Game 1, and I would urge you to follow me in the Action Network App for bet notifications to catch opening lines more readily throughout the playoffs.
Both offenses have struggled to sustain rallies (Detroit 24th, 89 wRC+ vs. RHP; Cleveland 27th, 82 wRC+ vs. RHP since the trade deadline), and the Tigers, in particular, have a far lesser split (103 wRC++, 12th vs. LHP).
Casey Mize (3.70 xERA, 3.97 xFIP, 4.04 botERA, 16.4% K-BB%) and Tanner Bibee (3.65 xERA, 4.17 xFIP, 4.16 botERA) are high-floor arms, and neither bullpen had to work particularly hard on Tuesday (15 pitches for Will Vest, 19 for both Hutner Gaddis and Cade Smith).
Stephen Vogt initially handled Bibee with care last postseason, pulling him twice in fewer than 15 outs against the Tigers, before letting him pitch into the sixth inning against the Yankees. Considering this is an elimination game for the Guardians and their bullpen is well-rested, I'm inclined to fade Bibee's usage and bet Under 14.5 Outs (-130) and Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+128).
Still, given how well Bibee has pitched against the Tigers this season (combined 19 IP, 12 H, 2 R, 5 BB, 21 K) — including his final two starts on September 18 and 24 — I'm not excited about laying juice on the Under 14.5 either.
Pick: Under 7 (-105 | Bet to -122)
Padres vs. Cubs
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -230 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | -105 |
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +190 | 6.5 -120o / 100u | -115 |
Dylan Cease vs. Andrew Kittredge
Andrew Kittredge (career 3.18 xFIP vs righties; 3.97 vs lefties) will open for the Cubs tomorrow ahead of presumably Shota Imanaga (4.23 xERA, 4.51 xFIP, 3.81 botERA, 16% K-BB%) and look to assist the Cubs' southpaw starter by reducing his early exposure to Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.
Shota spent nearly two months on the IL with a hamstring strain, but his 2025 results were down significantly compared to his rookie season (3.38 xERA, 3.62 xFIP, 3.61 botERA, 21% K-BB%).
Still, as a flyball-heavy pitcher (54.5% in 2025), with a notable home run issue (career 1.64 HR/9; 1.93 in 2025), Shota greatly benefits when the wind is at his back, as opposed to blowing out. The conditions should be favorable on Wednesday, with 8-to-9 MPH winds blowing in from right-center field.
For his career, the under is 10-6-1 in games started by Shota when the wind is blowing straight in, from left, or from right; his opponents have scored an average of 3.65 runs per game across those contests. Conversely, Shota's unders are just 17-16-3 in all other conditions, and Cubs' opponents have averaged 4.28 runs per game across those 36 matchups.
Dylan Cease had an unlucky season (4.55 ERA, 3.46 xERA, 3.56 xFIP, 3.81 botERA), thanks in part to a high BABIP (.320 vs. .295 career. Still, his walk rate also bounced back up to 9.8% (10.0% career) after falling to a career-best 8.5% in 2024.
The Cubs (6th in walk rate in the second-half; 7th on the season) figure to grind Cease (whose leash is likely already short considering the Padres are on the brink of elimination) into deep counts. Still, his outs prop total (13.5 -107) is also reasonably low.
I wanted to reiterate a few points that I made on Tuesday, to justify why I think the Cubs are the side once again in Game 2:
- A southpaw keeps the Padres' offense in their lesser split, particularly with Ramon Laureano (139 wRC+ vs. LHP) out for the Padres. The Padres' offense ranked as a top-eight unit after the trade deadline overall, but just 16th against left-handed pitching, and that stretch primarily featured Laureano in the middle of their order.
- The Cubs' offense went through a slump late in the summer, but bounced back in September (119 wRC+, 2nd only behind Seattle).
- The Cubs are also the far better defensive and baserunning team (2nd in Defensive Runs Saved, 4th in Outs Above Average, and 3rd in Baserunning Value), whereas the Padres rank 14th, 17th, and 16th in the exact measurements.
- Lastly, the Padres may not have as significant a bullpen edge as you may anticipate. Chicago actually ranked as the No. 1 bullpen both by xFIP and K-BB% after the trade deadline, whereas the Padres finished fourth and sixth, respectively, over that span. And the Cubs recently welcomed back the electric Danny Palencia.
I projected the Cubs as -125 favorites in Game 2, and I would bet their moneyline to -115.
The Under opened at 7 (-120) but quickly moved to 6.5 (+100), which aligns more closely with my projected total of 6.4.
Pick: Cubs ML (-104 | Bet to -115)
Red Sox vs. Yankees
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 7.5 100o / -120u | +150 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 100o / -120u | -180 |
Brayan Bello vs. Carlos Rodon
The defending AL champions are in the unenviable position of needing to win consecutive games against their biggest rival to keep their season alive.
While Carlos Rodon (3.31 xERA, 3.89 xFIP, 4.13 botERA, 16.5% K-BB%) is a more effective arm than Brayan Bello (4.42 xERA, 4.39 xFIP, 4.40 botERA, 9.3% K-BB%), both pitchers force the opposing offense into their lesser split (L30 days, BOS 11th vs. RHP, 104 wRC+ and 22nd vs. LHP, 85 wRC+; NYY 3rd vs. RHP, 115 wRC+ and NYY 1st vs. LHP, 129 wRC+).
And to reiterate a point I made before Game 1, I trust both bullpens, as each finished in the top ten for xFIP, K-BB%, and pitch modeling metrics over the final month of the season.
The game should be played in pitcher-friendly conditions (a 55-degree real feel by late innings; 8-to-9 MPH winds blowing in from left field). I modeled the total at 6.78 runs and would bet Under 7.5 to -118.
While they are chalky, both starting pitcher unders for outs (15.5, -148 for Rodon and 14.5, -130 for Bello) caught my attention in an elimination game.
Pick: Under 7.5 (-102 | Bet to -118)
Reds vs. Dodgers
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 8 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 8 -110o / -110u | -270 |
Zack Littell vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto
I projected the Dodgers as -217 favorites in Game 2, and I set the total at 7.63 runs. As a result, I don't see value on either side or the total for Game 2, but I would bet Under 8 (-105) if it comes into range.
Zack Littell will start ahead of both Andrew Abbott and Nick Lodolo, which seems like a potential mistake. Littell owns a career-high 1.74 HR/9 this season (career 1.46), and facing the lineup with the second-most homers and second-highest ISO seems like a disaster waiting to happen.
Still, Littell (4.24 xFIP, 13.5% K-BB% over the final two months) is healthy and well-rested. In contrast, Abbott pitched on Saturday (to help the Reds get into the playoffs), and Lodolo, who is available out of the Reds' bullpen, is dealing with a groin injury.
Yamamoto (2.73 xERA, 20.8% K-BB% in 2025) is the far more sophisticated pitcher, and with a home run rate (0.72 HR/9) nearly half of that of his opponent, he gives the light-hitting Reds (26th, 85 wRC+) a minimal chance of securing a lead.
I'll continue to insist that Dave Roberts is prepared to run his starting pitchers (1st xFIP and K-BB%, 2nd in Pitching+ post-deadline) until they necessitate a relief pitcher, rather than deploying pre-planned game scripts for relief usage.
As a result, Yamamoto over 17.5 outs (-110) — a number he cleared on 15 of 30 occasions this season — is potentially worth a small poke given the soft matchup. Our Action Labs projection also puts him at 7.6 strikeouts in Game 1; bet Over 6.5 to -140.
Yamamoto only averaged 71 pitches per start last September and 70.5 pitches per start last postseason. However, the Dodgers took the leash off this year, as Yamamoto averaged 101.25 pitches per month over the past 30 days, and I expect similar usage in October.
Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 17.5 Outs (-105 | Play to -125) | Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120 | Play to -140) | LA Dodgers win NL Pennant (+250 | Bet to +190)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, October 1
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Chicago Cubs (-104, 1u) at DraftKings; bet to -115
- Gurdians/Reds Under 7 (-105, 1u) at FanDuel; bet to -122
- Red Sox/Yankees Under 7.5 (-102, 1u) at DraftKings; bet to -118
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-105, 0.2u) at FanDuel; bet to -125
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-120, 0.1u) at FanDuel; bet to -140
